01 January 1970 0 6K Report

We need to prepare a weighted average multi-model ensemble of projected future daily precipitation by assigning weights to individual CMIP6 models based on past performance. For this purpose, We want to use Bayesian Model Averaging. Since the distribution of precipitation is highly skewed with large number of zeros in it, a mixed (discrete-gamma) distribution is preferred as the conditional PDF as per Sloughter et al., (2007).

Considering 'y' as the reference (observed ) data and 'fk' as the modelled data of kth model,

The conditional PDF consists of two parts. The first part estimates P(y=0|fk) using a logistic regression model. The second part consists the following the term P(y>0|fk)*g(y|fk).

Since the computation of P(y>0|fk) is not mentioned in the referred manuscript, If I can compute P(y=0|fk), Can I compute P(y>0|fk) as 1-P(y=0|fk) in this case?

If not, Can someone help in computing P(y>0|fk)?

You can find the the referred paper here https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3441.1

Thanks

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