Be careful with the use of climate change or climate variability.

For climate change, use one of the several models that run with one or several of the climate change scenarios; the Canadian Climate Change Model; The Goodard Climate Change Model, among others. Once you run the Climate Change Model for one or several scenarios (Based on Greenhouse emissions and policies) then you will have changes in any of the climatic variables you mentioned (precipitation, temperature, river discharge, and so on). Compare the normal or buisness as usual scenarios with the data given by the model and there you have your answer.

Should you choose to use the climate variability approach, you have to carry out a past analysis of river discharge data and look for the maximum upper and lower natural variability. Transpose the lower variability into the future; let say for the year 2050 with increased river flow demands (increasing population, industry, agriculture and environmental issues) and then you have a contrast between what may happen in case of repeating the lower scenario of natural variability into the future with larger river flow approapriations.

Hope this information is useful to you.

Best Wishes and Kind Regards

Sincerely

Jose Navar, Ph.D Oklahoma State University

Thanks José Navar for giving me useful ideas. I want to that how can I see the impact on Surface water supply after analyzing the climate change scenarios. Can you plz give me some ideas for this.

Why don't you use several models such as SWAT

Or surface water or ground water models in order to simulate water supply.

Hi Juthika, Pl have a look at these papers. More on my RG site. Regards.

Article Distinguishing Human and Climate Influences on the Columbia ...

Article Human and climate impacts on Columbia River hydrology and salmoids

Article Distinguishing human and climate influences on hydrological ...

Conference Paper Separation of climate and anthropogenic influences on Columb...

There are some things that are probably a given such as sea level rise, just uncertainty in how much or fast.  For rainfall changes, some areas predicted to be wetter, some drier, some no change, so more uncertainty.  If you want to do this for a specific area and a specific time, say 50 years, I would either 1) use the model that produces the most change and the model that produces the opposite extreme of the first forecast, and analyze these as the forecast bounds, with current conditions identified, or 2) run all the prominent predictive models for your area and show the results.  Then with the rainfall forecast estimates, estimate surface water changes by reviewing stream gauge records and how surface waters changed in similar, dry or wet periods (a period being multiple years) based on the model prediction as an average.  However also it is good to suggest the variation will probably as much or more than present (I.e., more extremes).  Since you sound especially interested in coastal areas and issues, you are going to probably either favor your specific area or select some where there might be data, such as coastal urban areas.  Since I am most familiar with South Carolina coast and Charleston vicinity and the Francis Marion National Forest, I would steer you to SC DHEC and Charleston on their sea level rise impact studies on the Internet and the work of US Geological Survey  reports in coastal SC.  Carl Trettin, Devendra Amatya and Tim Callihan are a few of the researchers in that area that have publications you may be interested in, and they are in the Researchgate data base.  I am sure that most major coastal urban areas have or will be analyzing some of the issues you are interested in.  If you get into analyzing extremes, the areas that are subject to hurricanes, typhones, etc. may have even Mose extreme with sea level rise and increased storm surge potential and risk.  Very timely for you to be studying these type issues to not relate doom and gloom, but encourage informed decisions, better building plans and materials, retrofitting structures, evacuation notification and escape routes in case of disaster.  I did not get into it, but as moisture and temperature changes so may plant types and evapotranspiration rates also change.  These is a large body of research on the effects of vegetation management and conversion on water yield.  If you are in an area getting more rain than you want, you might prefer pine trees that transpire more than hardwoods or grass.  If rain becomes deficient and streams are drying up, vegetation conversion or management might be options to help reduce impacts, as might water storage or other things to help conserve water and limit habitat change.  In dry but also variable conditions, adding beaver to the system may help with the water supply issues, but increase the need for water treatment due to increased turbidity and fecal contaminants.  But for surface water drinking uses, treating water should be a standard.

I got into my computer, and here is a paper I found most interesting and helpful on the issue of sea level change over last 2000 years.  I also attached a file relative to the Francis Marion National Forest on the SLAMM model application and its influence on various coastal ecosystems.  Emerys Treasure is the person from TACCIMO writing the analysis for the Francis Marion National Forest, a great contact, and the date is provided, and he has a list of references.  The last attachment was a nice presentation for SE USA that I also had on file, showing things like variability and trend, and it shows that most must find some good long data sets for their area of interest.

You can get few research articles from this link

Data IPWE2016OnsiteProgram-FINAL

Dear Juthika,

if you are familiar with ArcGIS and SWAT model check this:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-6593.2012.00369.x/abstract;jsessionid=FCBDEA13AD0375E22B46ED420CD4C80B.f03t01?systemMessage=Wiley+Online+Library+will+be+unavailable+on+Saturday+27th+February+from+09%3A00-14%3A00+GMT+%2F+04%3A00-09%3A00+EST+%2F+17%3A00-22%3A00+SGT+for+essential+maintenance.++Apologies+for+the+inconvenience.&userIsAuthenticated=false&deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=

Well,

Pages 8 and 9 from the following Article.

Article HYDROLOGIC SYSTEM OF EUPHRATES RIVER (SPATIAL ANALYSIS) BETW...