I believe that other countries that export to the US will benefit from the war, but it is not clear if the ítems imported from China will be supplied internally given the high tariffs that will be imposed. Also, it is not clear if other countries will have the capacity to produce in large amounts and with low prices as China.
Dear Liliana, may be it is still a bit early to estimate potential impacts for other countries, particularly for important US trade partners like Mexico. In the case of Brazil, which has more trade with Europe and other nations, it would also depend on the multilateral actions that could start because of US protectionist measures and the possible response (retaliation) from China. I understand that US tariffs for China imports would be raised on more than 1300 products. So the type of goods and the competitors for those goods in international markets and their current share in the US market could determine possible gainers and losers, as you suggest. Taking into account current NAFTA re-negotiations, the final outcome for Mexico could also have an impact. And it could also depend on possible WTO actions (considering that China could make allegations) and if something happens with the Trans-Pacific agreement that the US has blocked. It is definitely an interesting questions and a very important discussion for today´s international relations. Best regards.
Thank you very much to Luis Rivera and Arben Salihu. It is true that the effect of the trade war will be very different for Mexico than for other countries. Mexico should be prepared to take advantage of this opportunity, in case the US continue importing ítems in which they don´t have a comparative advantage.
China is a huge importer of Brazilian iron-ore. Less chinise exports to US, less chinise commodities' imports...less demand for iron-ore
Thank you Dr. Almekhlafi. Although, I do think that countries like Mexico will face opportunities in certain markets and regarding some products. The China effect will be reduced and this might represent some benefits. Of course, this will depend on the investment decisions and of the infraestructure available.
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