Forest are the main source of the earth which support to protect biosphere. How the climate change effects the natural forest ecosystem and how can we predict impacts and mitigate those impacts?
First of all, you can check the NDVI the forest in 30 years ago, and investigate how NDVI's values have changed during the thirty years ?
Second, you can investigate the values of precepitation and temprature on that area in a priod more than 10 years.
Third, you can run different climate models for investigate CO2 changes. Of course, these models must be downscale in the study area, for receive precise outputs.
Fourth, You can get the correlation between changes in NDVI and CO2 to learn the trend of changes.
If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to send me an email.
Dear Nasin, Thank you for suggestion. These are the methods that we can find out the changes. But I would like to know how climate change are related to forest ecosystem. What are the results of changes?
There are many publication about this , and in this relation with . For example with more extended forest fires, balance in species in tropical and neo tropical diverse forest , and new deseases clearly related to climate change , as beatles in template forest of canada.
The forest ecosystem comprising the plants, water bodies and animals (flora and fauna) have effect on climate change. Because the climate is expected to function in a manner that will provide for continuous supply of plants species (including edible ones), good water sources for human and animal use, and animals. The plants in the forests and the water bodies respectively transpirate and evaporate water vapour into the atmosphere that condenses and come back as rains to support plants growth and the continuous existence of the water bodies. The forest plants also protects the water bodies. Hence if the depletion of plants in the forest amidst other forest disturbances cause damage to water bodies and the quantity of plants that could release water vapour to be condensed for rains. This is the short information I can provide. However, the attached document can also be of help. All the best and feel free to contact.
You have too much information about this topic but I think you can start with the IPCC report. You will have a general idea to make decisions and then to continue in your specific field of interest.
There is good summary of info at this link: http://www.fao.org/forestry/climatechange/en/ "Forests have four major roles in climate change: they currently contribute about one-sixth of global carbon emissions when cleared, overused or degraded; they react sensitively to a changing climate; when managed sustainably, they produce woodfuels as a benign alternative to fossil fuels; and finally, they have the potential to absorb about one-tenth of global carbon emissions projected for the first half of this century into their biomass, soils and products and store them - in principle in perpetuity." IPCC report is a great idea.
Unfortunately, due to the stochastic nature of climatic conditions, there is considerable uncertainty regarding future climate scenarios. Consequently, we cannot predict the extent or impacts of global warming on specific forest ecosystems. However, since a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, climate change can influence the hydrological cycle and alter the frequency, extent, and severity of extreme weather events. Therefore, it may be possible to mitigate the effects of changes in precipitation and temperature by managing forests to increase their resistance and resilience to climatic extremes (e.g., drought). Most tree species and all major forest types exhibit vulnerability to drought that manifests in declines in the productivity of forests. In addition, drought conditions can enhance the susceptibility of forest vegetation to insect outbreaks, diseases, and catastrophic fires. Thus, to mitigate the effects of climate change on the integrity of forest ecosystems, management actions should focus on enhancing water retention by manipulating the composition and structure of forested landscapes.
To start with, an ecosystem the interaction of living things [us as human beings with other living species] in their natural habitat. In this vein, the pressure of population growth and backed by increased demand for human beings to meet basic livelihood needs is adding pressure on the environment, for example, the destruction of protected forest land, and the expansion of habitable communities to cater for increase demand in housing needs. In this vein, forest lands are destroyed and with the risk of biodiversity existence threatened. In addition, burned down forests also emit carbon compounds as a result of deforestation, which also increases the scope for adverse climate change through flooding and global warming. Please check the link below to help you with relevant reading on the topic: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/forest_eng.pdf
You can look at the Wikipedia under the forest and climate change search option. In order to predict the possible impact, there are a number of models such as IBIS, MC1 and a few others. Mitigation issue is specific to the context of the forests in question and the social conditions of the society.
See the following publications which have to do with your question and have been the focus of my research over decades:
Books and Software:
Botkin, D.B., 1993, Forest Dynamics: An Ecological Model, Oxford University Press.
Botkin, D.B.,2015 JABOWA -IV (Software and manual). Can be obtained from my website www.danielbbotkin.com
Botkin, D.B., 2010, Powering The Future: A Scientist’s Guide to Energy Independence (FT Press, Upper Saddle River, NJ).
Botkin, D. B., 2012, The Moon in the Nautilus Shell: Discordant Harmonies Reconsidered (Oxford University Press, New York, hardback and ebook, September 14, 2012). (One of 5 finalist in the 2013 USA Best Book Awards (Science))
Articles:
Botkin, D.B., J.F. Janak and J.R. Wallis, 1973, Estimating the effects of carbon fertilization on forest composition by ecosystem simulation, pp. 328 - 344, In: G.M. Woodwell and E.V. Pecan, eds., Carbon and the Biosphere, Brookhaven National Laboratory Symposium No. 24, Technical Information Center, U.S.A.E.C., Oak Ridge, TN.
Botkin, D.B., 1977, Forests, lakes and the anthropogenic production of carbon dioxide, BioScience 27: 325 - 331.
Woodwell, G.M., R.H. Whittaker, W.A. Reiners, G.E. Likens, C.A.S. Hall, C.C. Delwiche, and D.B. Botkin, 1978, The biota and the world carbon budget, Science 199: 141 - 146.
Botkin, D.B, 1979, Status of ecological theory, pp. 101 - 102, In: M,N, Dastoor, L, Margulis, and K,H, Nealson, eds., Interaction of the Biota with the Atmosphere and Sediments, Final Report of NASA Workshop on Global Ecology, held October 18 - 20, 1979.
Botkin , D B. B. Maguire, B. Moore, III, H.J. Morowitz and L.B. Slobodkin, 1979, Ecology, pp 105-121 in N. S. Bricker (ed.), Life Beyond the Earth's Environment: The biology of living organisms in space, NAS Space Science Board, NAS Washington, D. C. :105-121.
Ralston, Charles W.; G. M. Woodwell; R. H. Whittaker; W. A. Reiners; G. E. Likens; C. C. Delwiche; D. B. Botkin 1979 Where has all the carbon gone? Science, New Series, Vol. 204, No. 4399. (Jun. 22, 1979), pp. 1345-1346.
Botkin, D.B. (ed.) 1980. Life from a Planetary Perspective: Fundamental Issues in Global Ecology. Final report NASA Grant NASW-3392. 49 pp.
Botkin, D.B. (ed.), 1980, Life from a Planetary Perspective: Fundamental Issues in Global Ecology, Final report NASA Grant NASW-3392, 49 pp.
Botkin, D. B. and E. V. Pecan (eds.), 1982, Habitability of the Earth: Land-Air Interactions. Report to NASA, 32pp.
Botkin, D.B., 1982, Can there be a theory of global ecology? J. of Theor. Biol. 96: 95 - 98.
Botkin, D.B. (ed.) 1980. Life from a Planetary Perspective: Fundamental Issues in Global Ecology. Final report NASA Grant NASW-3392. 49 pp.
Botkin, D.B., 1984, The Biosphere: The New Aerospace Engineering Challenge. Aerospace America, July 1984, p. 73-75.
Botkin, D.B. and S.W. Running, 1984, Role of Vegetation in the Biosphere, Purdue University Machine Processing of Remotely Sensed Data (Symposium), pp. 326-332.
Davis, M. B. and D. B. Botkin, 1985, Sensitivity of the Cool--Temperate Forests and Their Fossil Pollen to Rapid Climatic Change, Quaternary Research 23:327-340.
Botkin, D. B., 1985, The Need for A Science of The Biosphere, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews,10(3):267-278.
Bretherton, F.P., D. J. Baker, D.B.Botkin, K.C.A.Burke, M. Chahine, J.A. Dutton, L.A. Fisk, N.W.Hinners, D.A. Landgrebe, J.J. McCarthy, B. Moore, R.G. Prinn, C.B. Raleight, WV.H.Reis, W.F. Wee,s, P.J. Zinke, 1986, Earth Systems Science: A Program for Global Change, NASA Earth Systems Science Committee of the NASA Advisory Council, Washington, D. C. 48pp + supplements.
Botkin, D. B. 1986 (ed.), Remote Sensing of the Biosphere, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.
Botkin, D.B., 1989, "Science and The Global Environment," pp. 3 - 14 (Chapter 1) in
Botkin, D.B., M. Caswell, J.E.Estes, A.Orio (eds) Man's Role in Changing The Global Environment:Perspectives on Human Involvement, Academic Press, Boston.
Stolz, J.F. Botkin, D.B. and M.N.Dastoor, 1989, "The Integral Biosphere", pp. 31-49 (Chapter 3) in M. B. Rambler and L. Margulis (eds.), Global Ecology:Towards a Science of the Biosphere , Academic Press Pub., Boston.
Botkin, D. B., R. A. Nisbet, and T. E. Reynales, 1989, "Effects of Climate Change on Forests of the Great Lake States, pp.2-1 to 2-31 in The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, J. B. Smith and D. A. Tirpak (eds.) U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D. C., EPA -203-05-89-0.
Botkin, D. B. and R. A. Nisbet, 1990, Response of Forests to Global Warming and CO2 Fertilization, Report to EPA.
Botkin, D. B., D. A. Woodby, and R. A. Nisbet, 1991, Kirtland's Warbler Habitats: A Possible Early Indicator of Climatic Warming, Biological Conservation 56 (1): 63-78.
Botkin, D. B., 1991, Global Warming: What it is, What is Controversial About it, and What We Might Do In Response To It, UCLA J. of Environmental Law and Policy, 9: 119-142.
Botkin, D. B., R. A. Nisbet, S. Bicknell, C. Woodhouse, B. Bentley, and W. Ferren, 1991, Global Climate Change and California's Natural Ecosystems, pp. 123 - 149 in J. B. Knox (ed.), Global Climate Change and California: Potential Impacts and Responses, University of California Press, Berkeley.
Botkin, D. B., and R. A. Nisbet, 1992, Forest response to climatic change: effects of parameter estimation and choice of weather patterns on the reliability of projections, Climatic Change 20: 87-111.
Botkin, D. B., R. A. Nisbet and L. G. Simpson, 1992, Forests and Global Climate Change, Chapter 19, pp. 274- 290 in S. K. Majumdar, L. S. Kalkstein, B. M. Yarnal, E. W. Miller, and L. M. Rosenfeld (eds.) Global Climate Change: Implications, Challenges and Mitigation Measures, Pennsylvania Academy of Sciences, Philadelphia.
Botkin, D. B. and R. A. Nisbet, 1992, Projecting the effects of climate change on biological diversity in forests, pp. 277 - 293 in R. Peters and T. Lovejoy, (Eds.) Consequences of the Greenhouse Effect for Biological Diversity, Yale University Press, New Haven.
Guggenheim, D. and D. B. Botkin, 1996, CO2 Offset Opportunities in Siberian Forests, Report to the Electirc Power Research Institute, Center for the Study of the Environment, Santa Barbara, CA, EPRI report # TR
Botkin, D. B., Henrik Saxe, Miguel B. Araújo, Richard Betts, Richard H.W. Bradshaw, Tomas Cedhagen, Peter Chesson, Terry P. Dawson, Julie Etterson, Daniel P. Faith, Simon Ferrier, Antoine Guisan, Anja Skjoldborg Hansen, David W. Hilbert, Craig Loehle, Chris Margules, Mark New, Matthew J. Sobel, and David R.B. Stockwell. 2007 "Forecasting Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity." BioScience 57(3): 227-236.
Ngugi, Michael R. and Daniel B. Botkin, 2011, “Validation of a multispecies forest dynamics model using 50-year growth from Eucalyptus forests in eastern Australia,” Ecological Modelling. 222: 3261– 3270.
Ngugi, M.R., Daniel B. Botkin, David Doley, Mark Cant, and Jack Kelley.2013 “Restoration and Management of Callitris Forest Ecosystems in Eastern Australia: Simulation of Attributes of Growth Dynamics, Growth Increment and Biomass Accumulation.” Ecological Modelling 263 (2013) 152– 161.
Ngugi, M.R., D. Doley, and D.B. Botkin, 2013. “Application of a forest dynamics simulator to inform sustainable biodiversity conservation and grazing management in Australia”.20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation(MODSIM2013). 2013: Adelaide (December 1, 2013).
Botkin, D. B., 2013. “What Forestry Needs in the Anthropogene,” The Forestry Source. September 2013 • Vol. 18, No. 9. p. 11. http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/saf/forestrysource_201309/index.php#
Botkin, D. B., 2014 “Adapting Forest Science, Practice, and Policy to Shifting Ground: From Steady-State Assumptions to Dynamic Change.“ Sample, V. Alaric and R. Patrick Bixler (eds.). Forest Conservation and Management in the Anthropocene. General Technical Report. Fort Collins, CO: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Rocky Mountain Research Station. (Reproduced at website http://www.forestbusinessnetwork.com)
Botkin, D.B., M.R. Ngugi, and D. Doley. 2014. “Estimates and Forecasts of Forest Biomass and Carbon Sequestration in North America and Australia: A Forty-Five Year Quest.” Drewno 2014, Vol. 57, No. 192 DOI: 10.12841
Ngugi, Michael R., David Doley, Daniel B. Botkin, Mark Cant, Victor J. Neldner & Jack Kelley. 2014. Long-term estimates of live above-ground tree carbon stocks and net change in managed uneven-aged mixed species forests of sub-tropical Queensland, Australia Australian Forestry DOI:10.1080/00049158.2014.979979 Published online: 26 Nov 2014.
Ngugi, Michael R., David Doley, Daniel B. Botkin, Mark Cant. 2015. "Growth rates of Eucalyptus and other Australian native tree species derived from seven decades of growth monitoring." Journal of Forestry Research (in press)
Shoemaker, W. B., Anderson, F., Barr, J. G., Graham, S. L., and Botkin, D. B.: Carbon exchange between the atmosphere and subtropical forested cypress and pine wetlands, Biogeosciences, 12, 2285-2300, doi:10.5194/bg-12-2285-2015, 2015.
Forest ecosystems entail every living organisms and more so it is a very important habitation for the survival of variety of biodiversity. Human beings in particular are highly dependent on it for survival and hence this resets on serious evironmental issues like deforestation. Deforestation is directly linked with climate change as forest preserve the environment from high level carbon emission.