I attended a work workshop recently where I was taught that the uncertainty and instability of forest ecosystem models increase as the models try to capture the complexity of the forest ecosystem. My understanding of that statement is that the certainty and stability of such models will be enhanced if the complexity of the forest ecosystem is not adequately captured. To what extent can we rely on scenarios developed with models that perform better when they do not adequately capture the complexity of very complex ecosystems which they model?
you may read these
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2710278/
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00471.x
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380013004699
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f07f/e5947ac2b92c42e45a8bc1add3c0e1ab9d33.pdf
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/X07-041#.WtWcE9RuavE
It's good for models to be parameterised with as much empirical data as possible :)
Check here, please..Article Models for Forest Ecosystem Management: A European Perspective
Kindly see too...Article Evaluation of six process‐based forest growth models using e...
More referral..
.Article Evaluation of simulated estimates of forest ecosystem carbon...
See more here...
http://home.deib.polimi.it/guariso/AESA/process-based%20forest%20models.pdf
Sometimes, simple models can reasonably predict the behaviour of highly complex systems. To answer your question, I believe it all depends on the information you want from a given model. For example, I remember reading that the CBM-CFS3 model is very accurate for total carbon mass in forest ecosystems, but that it is less accurate for the repartition of this carbon between the different pools in the ecosystem. It can consequently be used to understand the role of forest ecosystem in the global carbon cycle, but might not be sufficiently accurate (yet) for a highly precise tracking of carbon in the different carbon pools.
Some articles that might be of interest include:
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfr-2017-0088#.Wtiv3IjwaUl
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/er-2013-0041#.WtiyTYjwaUk
Article Modelling carbon stocks and fluxes in the wood product secto...
Hi,
what is "adequate" depends on what questions you want to answer: you do not need to model each and every process in great detail if all you are interested in is merchantable timber volume across large regions, for example.
- Badges
- Science topic
- Similar topics
- Mathematical Sciences
- Statistics
- Probability
- Probability Theory
- Reliability