Given the relatively rapid progression in areas of Brazil (8 states until yesterday) in approximately one month, how faster or when would be expect to have cases of Zika in other countries of the region? Would be similar to chikungunya?, when ending 2013 cases were reported in some Caribbean islands and some months later we received in other countries in the region. I felt we, as region, were not prepared for CHIK. Not even yet, physicians and research groups are doing properly in the most efficient way, even those working in dengue, and now we will face Zika.
You might already have cases of Zika and not know it. The huge difference between Zika and chikungunya is the percentage of people who get sick. Actually Zika seems like dengue in that both viruses are unlikely to cause someone to be so sick as to present at a clinic. If you look at the statistics from some longer studies it seems like with Zika maybe less than 20% of people present. This and the fact that it seems similar to chikungunya and dengue there was a great probability that Zika was being missed over the last year or so.
Interesting. Then, given that serological surveys will be useful to identify that situation. We must do it in our countries.
It depends how quickly Zika enters / reach / transported to other Latin countries. Environment , including host (human) and vector are there already there. What is needed is the the pathogen. one person travelling through infected area may bring the virus . Aedes are waiting to transmit . Epidemiologist have to be vigilent for a single case...
Since the vector is one of any of several species of mosquitoes and the flavavirus is similar to Dengue, the likelihood is that it will spread fairly rapidly to other Latin and Central American countries. The mosquito vectors will travel with cargo shipped (air and sea) and transmission may be by human travelers as well. I'd say you'll almost certainly see it, based on this--and the history of other viruses--within the year. And as another said, you've probably had cases already that were not correctly diagnosed. Welcome to my world! Interestingly, in 1950 Jaques May produced a map of world mosquito habitats as part of a program in medical geography to argue for greater surveillance and recognition of the role of vectors in disease transmissions.
Tom Koch
Disease Maps: Epidemics on the Ground (2011)
Cartographies of Diseass (2005).
Since the tiger mosquito i.e. Aedes species - aegypti & albopictus are already establishing their foothold in most of the countries, wherever these vectors are present, the introduction of one infected person or pathogen can cause Zika. However, as someone has rightly commented that it already must be present in most areas where dengue/chikungunya are already causing outbreaks. The other Aedes species implicated in its transmission can also take on additional role wherever these two vectors are not present or are in low numbers.
VERY FAST, I am accord with Tilak Reeves, Muhammad Aslamkhan, Rodriguez-Morales, Kumar,Koch. The Mosquitous Control is esencial to reduce vector density. Only need To INTENSIFIED the integral action for (DENGUE) Control and Prevention, an interesting paper is the Epidemilogical Alert OPS OMS in Spanish of May/ 7/ 2015, above is the link and the paper
https://www.google.com.ec/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.paho.org%2Fhq%2Findex.php%3Foption%3Dcom_docman%26task%3Ddoc_view%26Itemid%3D270%26gid%3D30076%26lang%3Des&ei=LUeIVY29Loi1-AGx2YCABw&usg=AFQjCNEV3aGCS7cH1AfzI3FgIkzXBgA80Q
"Essentially, all models are wrong but some are useful." G.Box
I would not predict anything in this ZIKV story. We dont have sufficient information about key features of ZIKV ecology. Just one example: What about interference with DENV in Aedes spp? In addition, I am pretty sure ZF is extremely underdiagnosed and/or often diagnosed as dengue (key features: strong serologial cross reactivity with DENV, short and low vireamia) in South America. Thus, maybe ZIKV is already circulating in Colombia or Venezuela.
It depends how quickly Zika enters / reach / transported to other Latin countries. Environment , including host (human) and vector are there already there. What is needed is the the pathogen. one person travelling through infected area may bring the virus . Aedes are waiting to transmit . Epidemiologist have to be vigilent for a single case...
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