Many of us have used or read about simulation models that predict impacts of climate changes on crop production. The bases of these models are the results of experiments that were carried out in closed systems (very artificial growth conditions) and/or more recently FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment) experiments which is more close to natural system. However, even with FACE experiments which focus more on CO2 elevation, there is still the effect of higher wind speed in this experiment that may increase water loss by the plant and/or the air temperature that may not represent the natural conditions. This results somehow on overestimation of some plant parameters and underestimation of others.
So, how far can we rely on the results of these simulation models in predicting the impact of climate changes on crop production?
Integrating two types of crop models to predict the effect of climate ...
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180103101153.htm
Agree with what you have mentioned. However Physiology based crop simulation model such as DSSAT/ APSIM etc will give an clear understanding about the impact of climate change on crop production. Actually with this simulation models, one can extrapolate the effect of climate change on crops by varying soil properties, crop management options including the parameters such as temperature, rainfall, sun shine hours etc. However model needs to be calibrated and validated before reaching into any conclusion and still there may be knowledge gap on interactive climatic factors and also climate extreme events. However these crop simulation model will be a good tool for understanding the impacts of climate change and hence proper management strategies may be derived
