How does climate change affect Himalayan water resources and components of Himalayan river flows in a changing climate?
The glacier-melt increases (15%–70%) in a warmer environment with its present volume, but decreases (3%–38%) substantially, when the volumes are reduced to half. However, such a decrease is found to be compensated by increased precipitation in a wetter scenario with a net increase of 3%–13%. Reduction in ice cover reduces the water storage capacity of the Himalayas, and fluctuations in the precipitation pattern cause floods and droughts. The increased frequency of natural hazards including floods and droughts affects the economy and is a threat to people's life. The factors that affect water availability in future in the Himalayan Rivers are glacier melt, groundwater extraction, reservoir construction, future precipitation, population growth, snowmelt, springs and permafrost thaw. The Himalayan River does intense erosion activity in its upper area and would carry a huge load of salt and sand in it as in the lower case, in the river; they have Ox Lake and any other floodplains that have many other depositional features in it.
We did a book covering aspects of this topic with one chapter per HKH country https://books.emeraldinsight.com/page/detail/Climate-Change-Modelling-for-Local-Adaptation-in-the-Hindu-Kush-Himalayan-Region/?K=9781780524863
I have no specific answer for Himalayan water resources, however, this research sheds insights into the organic relationship between climate change and water resources future. Ojija, F., & Nicholaus, R. (2023). Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and its Implications on Biodiversity: A Review. East African Journal of Environment and Natural Resources, 6(1), 15-27. Available on:Article Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and its Implicat...
The deepening of knowledge in this field covers important issues with regard to the development of adaptation strategies that preserve water security, particularly in the arid region. The conclusion of the paper is in this respect remarkably relevant, where one may read: "Where one may read within the discussion conclusion "...There is now a fair fight between rival interpretations of the economic implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions. The use of the present tense is also more common in climate coverage, as is the presentation of language related to risk. Climate discourse is increasingly focused on the risk posed by inaction and the here and now. To the extent that citizens may not be informed of the gravity of the risk posed by uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions, or discount threats that appear to be far in the future, these are welcome developments"
The research findings align with the holistic approach to National Water Security in water-scarce countries, which considers the comprehensive national water balances.
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Water_Footprint_Water_Colors_Blue_Water_Green_Water_Grey_Water_Virtual_Water
This paper, tries to answer the following question: is it possible to predict Water Resources only with GCMs, without downscaling, and what would be the resulting uncertainties? Besbes M., Chahed J. "Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia", Published online: 12 June 2023, Les Comptes Rendus. Géoscience. https://doi.org/10.5802/crgeos.219 Available on: Article Predictability of water resources with global climate models...
A significant threat posed by climate change in the Himalayas is the continual formation of a large number of glacial lakes. The lakes consist of vast quantities of glacial melt water held in place by natural dams of stone and rubble. The factors that affect water availability in future in the Himalayan Rivers are glacier melt, groundwater extraction, reservoir construction, future precipitation, population growth, snowmelt, springs and permafrost thaw. It has water in it through the year because of rainfall or melting snow. Complete solution: The Himalayan River originates from the mountains of the Himalayan ranger. As these rivers get water from the snow which is melting the glaciers and also with the help of the rain. The Himalayas block the monsoon winds and confine them to the Indian subcontinent. Without monsoons, India would have been a desert. In India monsoon usually lasts from July to September. 90% of the rainfall in India is due to monsoon. Eastern Himalayas have more glacial lakes than the Western Himalayas. The warming temperatures often increase the number of glacial lakes, and their outburst may cause irreparable damages in the region. Climate change is disrupting weather patterns, leading to extreme weather events, unpredictable water availability, exacerbating water scarcity and contaminating water supplies. Such impacts can drastically affect the quantity and quality of water that children need to survive. The seasonal runoff from Himalayan glaciers, to some degree, provides different water services to about 800 million people for the purposes including irrigation, hydropower and drinking water. As the glaciers melt unconventionally, it will eventually result in water shortages. The seasonal runoff from Himalayan glaciers, to some degree, provides different water services to about 800 million people for the purposes including irrigation, hydropower and drinking water. As the glaciers melt unconventionally, it will eventually result in water shortages.
Progress in understanding Climate Change and its effects needs advances in modeling Climate Phenomena. "IPCC Models" "Climate Models" "General Circulation Models", appellations are of no importance. It is in all cases Physics-Driven Models developed within multi-disciplinary scientific teams worldwide to describe the evolution of weather phenomena (at short time scales) and climate phenomena that involve long time-scale processes, more complex to analyze, as part of these phenomena are not yet well understood.
This is why, despite the enormous progress already achieved, the predictability of Climate Models (The Earth System Models, ESMs), are not yet sufficiently accurate. The standard deviations between the different models remain of the same order of magnitude as the mean values and huge biases on regional levels are noticed and well documented in technical and scientific references of each of the models.
This should lead us to admit that more research is needed to improve our knowledge of the driving forces that control the climate in order to build more accurate predictive climate models, as scientists do well for weather prediction
See also:
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Climate_Change_and_Climate_Models_Progress_and_Limits
The impacts of the changing climate are clearly visible in the Himalayas, some of the events which reflect these impacts are increasing floods, droughts, landslides, biodiversity changes, endangered species, agriculture livelihood, threatening challenges of food security, etc. A significant threat posed by climate change in the Himalayas is the continual formation of a large number of glacial lakes. The lakes consist of vast quantities of glacial melt water held in place by natural dams of stone and rubble. It is believed that the increased melting of Himalayan glaciers will bring on flooding disasters for the next few decades, and what would happen after this is the Ganga and the Indus flowing at radically reduced pace resulting in acute water stress, mass migration, and unseen conflicts. The Himalayas is the most magnificent mountain range and has vast reserves of ice and snow. The climate change has affected the Himalayas and reduced storages of ice and snow; lesser snowfall and more melt are evident across the mountain range. The Himalayas have a significant impact on India's climate. Only the presence of the Himalayas makes India a monsoon land. It traps the monsoon winds from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, forcing them to shed their moisture content within the Indian subcontinent in the form of snow and rain. Climate change could have significant impacts on water resources around the world because of the close connections between the climate and hydrological cycle. Rising temperatures will increase evaporation and lead to increases in precipitation, though there will be regional variations in rainfall. In India, a decline in monsoon rainfall since the 1950s has already been observed. The frequency of heavy rainfall events has also increased. An abrupt change in the monsoon could precipitate a major crisis, triggering more frequent droughts as well as greater flooding in large parts of India.Himalayan glaciers disappeared 65 percent faster since 2010 than in the previous decade and said that changes to the glaciers, snow and permafrost of the region driven by global warming were “unprecedented and largely irreversible”. The impacts of climate change in the Himalayas are real. Melting glaciers, erratic and unpredictable weather conditions, changing rainfall patterns, and increasing temperatures are impacting on the people and wildlife of the region. Due to Himalayas entire India is brought under the sway of moist laden winds for a few months. The Himalayas block the monsoon winds and confine them to the Indian subcontinent. Without monsoons, India would have been a desert. In India monsoon usually lasts from July to September. The 'greater Himalayan region', sometimes called the 'Roof of the World', is noticeably impacted by climate change. The most widely reported impact is the rapid reduction in glaciers, which has profound future implications for downstream water resources. The Indian Ocean and the Himalayas play a major role in affecting the monsoon and climate of India. The Himalayas protect India from bitterly cold winds that blow from the north. Thus, India does not experience severe cold during winter. At the beginning of summer, the temperature on the main land increases. The factors that affect water availability in future in the Himalayan Rivers are glacier melt, groundwater extraction, reservoir construction, future precipitation, population growth, snowmelt, springs and permafrost thaw. 1) Most of these rivers are perennial in nature i.e. they have water throughout the year. 2) They receive water from rain as well as the melted snow from the mountains. 3) Himalayan rivers cover long routes before falling into the sea. 4) They cut through mountains making gorges.Through the melting of snow'. Let's refer to the passage: The Himalayan rivers are formed by melting snow and glaciers and therefore, continuously flow throughout the year. During the monsoon months, Himalayas receive very heavy rainfall and rivers swell, causing frequent floods.
The effects of climate change for the next century are fairly well predicted as far as temperature is concerned. The hydrologic effects are much more uncertain. Nevertheless, the current prediction is that the temperature increase will generate a significant acceleration of the water cycle, with more evaporation. The global rainfall will thus increase, but its spatial distribution is much more uncertain.
See also: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226652110_Changing_Water_Resources_and_Food_Supply_in_Arid_Zones_Tunisia.
Article Predictability of water resources with global climate models...
The Himalayas have a significant impact on India's climate. Only the presence of the Himalayas makes India a monsoon land. It traps the monsoon winds from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, forcing them to shed their moisture content within the Indian subcontinent in the form of snow and rain. The Himalayas block the monsoon winds and confine them to the Indian subcontinent. Without monsoons, India would have been a desert. In India monsoon usually lasts from July to September. 90% of the rainfall in India is due to monsoon. It is believed that the increased melting of Himalayan glaciers will bring on flooding disasters for the next few decades, and what would happen after this is the Ganga and the Indus flowing at radically reduced pace resulting in acute water stress, mass migration, and unseen conflicts. A significant threat posed by climate change in the Himalayas is the continual formation of a large number of glacial lakes. The lakes consist of vast quantities of glacial melt water held in place by natural dams of stone and rubble. Climate change exacerbates water stress areas of extremely limited water resources – leading to increased competition for water, even conflict. By 2040, almost 1 in 4 children will live in areas of extremely high water stress. The impacts of the changing climate are clearly visible in the Himalayas, some of the events which reflect these impacts are increasing floods, droughts, landslides, biodiversity changes, endangered species, agriculture livelihood, threatening challenges of food security, etc. At the beginning of summer, the temperature on the main land increases. The factors that affect water availability in future in the Himalayan Rivers are glacier melt, groundwater extraction, reservoir construction, future precipitation, population growth, snowmelt, springs and permafrost thaw. 1) Most of these rivers are perennial in nature i.e. they have water throughout the year. 2) They receive water from rain as well as the melted snow from the mountains. 3) Himalayan rivers cover long routes before falling into the sea. 4) They cut through mountains making gorges. Climate change is disrupting weather patterns, leading to extreme weather events, unpredictable water availability, exacerbating water scarcity and contaminating water supplies. Such impacts can drastically affect the quantity and quality of water that children need to survive.
The paper [1] by Besbes et al.,2023, "Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia" analyzes the long-term effects of climate change using the predictions from CMIP6 on Northern Tunisia’s water resources, including blue and green water. The region represents the essential source of surface water, which gives it the qualifier “water tower” of Tunisia. It is also the cereal region of the country, mainly cultivated in rain-fed: it is its “attic”. Based on hydrological modeling, the analysis aims at determining the foreseeable climate-change effect on the overall water resources of the northern region of Tunisia.
[1] Besbes, M., & Chahed, J. (2023). Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia. Comptes Rendus. Géoscience, 355(S1), 1-22. Available on:
Article Predictability of water resources with global climate models...
See Also:
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Climate_Change_Water_Resources
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Climate_Change_and_Climate_Models_Progress_and_Limits
- Badges
- Science topic
- Similar topics
- Analytical Chemistry
- Extraction