Dear all researchers who are expert about relationship between El Nino and Macroeconomics,
I'm in progress with my research about :
" Analysis of Impact of the El Nino phenomenon on macroeconomics in Indonesia"
The dataset which i use and have in this research are SSTA NINO 3.4 Index data, CHIRPS v2.0 1981-2017 for rainfall dataset, Annual Agriculture Production and Productivity sub sector food crops(paddy, maize, soybean, etc) datasets each province in Indonesia from 1970-2017 (FYI there are 34 provinces), and also I have Annual dataset of Total GDRP, Agriculture GDRP, and Food Crops GDRP each province In Indonesia 1986-2017.
Up to now, i just work with those datasets using simple method (for example correlation, composite analysis). But still, i can't get such a good result about proving impact of El Nino to macroeconomic in Indonesia and How much the impact of El Nino to macroeconomic.
I've read paper from Cashin et al. 2017 about El Nino and Macroeconomic, but i still can't (or maybe don't get it how to) implement it to my research.
I'm very pleased for some suggestions, method recommendations, and/or if there are some info about the related paper.
Thank you very much.
God Bless Us.
It might not be feasible due to the social construction of El Niño / La Niña / ENSO and that it is so easy to prepare for the impacts, e.g. for Pacific islands https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10668-017-0045-3
With the data you have, reconstruct GVAR from Cashin et al. paper (see link below at p. 5). In you case, define your global environment as Indonesia: VARX*(pi,qi). If you need to replicate group of countries, you might consider ASEAN group since they are in the same area. The VARX approach used by Cashin et al. is vector autoregression.
LINK:
https://web.archive.org/web/20140728201219/http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1418.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vector_autoregression
Ilan Kelman Paul Louangrath Thank you very much for all of your great answers and recommendations, Sir. I've to read it first and actually still need more time to understand the formula of GVAR Model based on Cashin et. al paper.
Sajad Rajabi
Hello Sir. It looks very interesting, Sir. Perhaps, if my research paper has done, I hope it can be one of additional info for your investigation based on World Input-Output" analysis. I would like to know and would be happy if i can see the results one day.
Well, focus on the Ups and downs of the Primary sector. El niño with the droughts reduce the production of this sector, and add cost for production because of the extra irrigation
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