Factors determining the fission probabilities are:
1) Fission barrier: you can determine using Liquid drop model or Sierk barrier (RFRM)
2)Level density parameter: the ration of level density at saddle to ground state deformation (af/an) can be determined by fitting the measured fission/ER cross sections.
3)Shell correction: As you are talking about excitation energy=10MeV, shell closure effect can persist if your system is shell closed. So you can apply shell correction both at level density parameter and fission barrier.
You can run a programme like LISE++ or PACE and can play with varying these parameters and you can see how these parameters are influencing the fission cross section.