The challenges you list will be tackled with artificial intelligence tools and workflows which are model-based. A very old cliché is appropriate for your question: "All models are wrong but some are useful." Models can be wrong for at least two reasons. First, the context and boundary conditions of the model do not fit the real world situation. Second, even if the first problem is avoided, there is the problem of correlation vs. causation. In other words, a model prediction may look like it will work in the future based on one dataset but because the model is not actually reflecting the underlying physical processes, it will fail. This is where good earth scientists can stand out. With a deep understanding of geologic fundamentals, we can avoid these two problems and make useful models.

Dear Abubakar Surajo Ibrahim Kirari.

What you write about is impossible. I am very sorry.

There is such a philosophical saying: "" Fate plays a man, and a man plays the trumpet (flute)."

This is difficult to translate into English.

Dear Abubakar Suraho Ibrahim Kirari.

I live near you. In Haifa.

In order to change something and save people's lives, it is necessary to use what has already been successfully tested on real short-term earthquake forecasts. Israeli scientists do not use the classical method of forecasting, they simply report that "an earthquake has begun." You understand that this gives a lot of sacrifices.

I have no competitors so I created an accurate short-term forecasting method that has a reliability of about 100%.

Documents of examinations and tests confirm the obtained results. If your country needs my method, we can supply an international center for example in Sinai.

The method has already been successfully tested. I am looking for someone to transfer the knowledge and the patent to.

You can even invite colleagues from the BRICS and Shas countries.

Sincerely.

Alexander Yagodin.

Уважаемый Абубакар Сурахо Ибрагим Кирари.

Я живу недалеко от Вас. В Хайфе.

Для того, чтоб что-то изменить исохранить жизнь людям, необходимо использовать то, что уже успешно прошло испытания на реальных краткосрочных прогнозах землетрясений. Израильские ученые не используют классический метод прогноза, они просто сообщают, что "началось землетрясение". Вы понимаете, что это дает очень много жертв.

У меня нет конкурентов так-как я создал метод точного краткосрочного прогноза, имеющий достоверность около 100%.

Документы экспертиз и испытаний подтверждают полученные результаты. Если Вашей стране нужен мой метод, мы можем поставить международный Центр например в Синае.

Метод уже успешно прошел испытания. Я ищу, кому передать знания и патент.

Вы можете даже пригласить коллег из стран БРИКС и ШАС.

С уважением.

Александр Ягодин.

Dear Abubakar Surajo Ibrahim Kirari.

I know how to make a European saying ""Fate plays a man, and a man plays the flute" intelligible to you. The most close in meaning is the eastern saying "All the will of Allah."

Dear Abubakar Surajo Ibrahim Kirari. 1. Geophysicists know that the solid shell of the Earth periodically turns over the slippery asthenosphere and entire continents will be under water. Books have been written about it. This is an irresistible force. People know which parts of the land will not be flooded. Some have bought land there. But you need to have time to move to this territory, as well. This is problem... 2. Geophysicists know that an increase in solar activity and an increase in the "solar wind" sometimes blows away the atmosphere of planets. This is also a force majeure event. 3. I started the discussion "Analysis of global seismicity. In 2005, our planet was moving towards the apocalypse, but then the reverse began. Is a recurrence of danger possible?" about "incomprehensible" dangerous trends of geophysical changes on the Earth in 2005. The discussion thread was read by 100 people. No questions asked. The discussion contains materials that in 2005 the planet began to "collapse". This manifested itself in global seismicity. Massive man-made accidents and building collapses began. In November 2005, the Amazon dried up, and in February 2006, the Amazon experienced extreme flooding. The number of dangers in 2005 increased exponentially. Then the reversal of events began. 15 years ago I wrote a book about this (Geodynamics. Fundamentals of dynamic geodesy). The book is in the library but no one has read it. I have not sold a single book of their circulation. Then I published in Germany another book "The paradigm shift of seismotectonics and geodynamics". Not a single book has been sold. I am 67 years old (although I am old, but not yet silly). I have practically no disciple. I have lived a happy creative life. But being useful to people at a strategic level is almost impossible. People live at the household (tactical) level. This is how the world works. It's all in God's hands.

Professor Kirari,

I often thought about what you are describing.

If more people knew about the Earth, we would not have suffered as much from climate change or will be looking forward to its end (of climate change).

Geoscientists can use their knowledge to inform others. I have done presentations to schools where the future adult minds are "under construction". When people get older they either know how to respect the Earth or do not care at all. We have to inform them before they mature.

Nature-related courses should be a priority in schools. Geoscientists could be guest speakers during the delivery of such courses.

Best wishes

If officials did not hide the truth that the earthquake forecast was created and successfully tested, then people would have remained alive since 2011 and earlier.

Those who live in L'Aquila and participated in the forum, they know. that some of them received an accurate and timely forecast of the next earthquake and thanked me for that. that I gave this prediction.

One of those who did not read the forecast died and became the 309th dead.

Those who on this forum hide my created technique, although they know that the technique has been successfully tested, these people can be accused of murder.

I tell the truth to my colleagues and Presidents.

But why do scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences (for example) hide the truth?

Dear Abubakar Surajo Ibrahim Kirari ,

To these points: 'mitigating the effects of climate change(1.); understanding the science of climate change and global warming from deep time climate and forecasting future scenarios as guide for policymakers(2.); managing water resources (4.); protecting the environment (5.)' see the next note:

'Those who understand the past can see the future' (my contest) is connecting to the actualism principle of Sir Charles Lyell: ' past geological events must be explained by the same causes now in operation ' ...

'If we know the laws of nature that took place in short time intervals, we can also deduce laws that took place in longer time intervals'

A good earthquake forecasting geologists compete with the Israeli earthquake forecasters:

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Exists-the-next-situation-when-an-outsider-researcher-who-has-achieved-a-very-encouraging-result-in-earthquake-forecasting-is-not-supported ; https://www.researchgate.net/post/How-do-You-see-the-Earthquakes-Prediction-Forecast-or-Random-events ; https://www.researchgate.net/post/Is_earthquake_forecasting_easy_Can_the_formation_of_a_cyclone_be_considered_scientifically_a_harbinger_of_a_catastrophic_earthquake_in_Turkey

... They know where the mineral wealth (hydrocarbon, water, ore...) deposits are... They can advise on technical developments ... They cautiously accept the narratives of the official geological theory:

Presentation The phenomenon of subduction is incompatible with Earth's su...

In case of this point: finding new sources of energy (3)... You don't have to do anything else, just make the current technologies better,

To put it briefly: ' Geoscientists in a transition world: setting him (his) self Apart from the Competition' strive for the truth and reflect it honestly!'

Regards,

Laszlo

The author of the topic of the discussion was mistaken in the formulation of the question.

Competence is not valued. Free consultations are not required.

You say that this is absurd?

I'll give you an example.

There is a tsunami warning service. She placed sensors in the ocean to measure the height of the tsunami wave and alert people.

There is a seismological service. It informs about the place and time of a strong offshore earthquake.

The tsunami warning service very rarely gives correct alerts. See one of my discussion threads: "What is the reason for the distrust of the DART tsunami warning system?" The reason is an incorrect algorithm for processing measurement data from tsunami registration sensors. (As I said: Competence is not valued. Free consultations are not needed).

Cause - The sensor is recording two jumps. The first jump is the result of the "jump" of the sensor on the Rayleigh seismic wave. Rayleigh wave speed is measured in kilometers per second. This "jump" of the sensor is fixed after any strong earthquake. But strong earthquakes only generate tsunamis 2% of the time, and tsunami alerts give 100%..

Example.

Yesterday there was a strong earthquake in Alaska. The tsunami station jumped on the Rayleigh wave by 50 cm. The system announced the tsunami, although the wave had not yet arrived. The evacuation has begun. The tsunami was supposed to arrive at this station only after 25-30 minutes. She has less speed. It turned out that there was no tsunami. The evacuation went unnecessarily.

I "shout" about this error in the calculation algorithm of the tsunami warning system for 10 years. The system does not want to change and has been wrong all these 10 years...

Competence is not valued. Free consultations are not required. I'm right?

Полностью согласен с Борис Капочкин... Алексей Всеволодович в своих письмах показал, что наиважнейшее для прогнозиста, - не слепое использование статистики и математики. Важней всего - логика, связывающая события.

Анекдот, но я поссорился с рецензентом, который взялся рецензировать мою единственную книгу, которая к тому же уже прошла рецензирование Председателя РЭС (Алексея Всеволодовича, - он после рецензирования уезжал в отпуск "в глубинку").

"Эксперт ИФЗ РАН заявил мне, что я ошибаюсь, так-как я пишу о том, что прогнозировать цунами можно ДО землетрясения, если знаешь заранее место эпицентра и глубины и магнитуду". Пришлось ему напомнить, что все эти параметры при прогнозировании мониторингом волны Козырева-Ягодина имеют очень высокую точность.

Я согласен, что возможно при этом получается не 100% достоверность, хотя при резонансе, который происходит в том месте, где будет эпицентр, характер дна и места гипоцентра может быть связанным с силой цунами. (Я бы предложил поставить НИР на этот этап совместно с Институтом в Германии.)

The International Seabed Authority, a body associated with the United Nations, is currently meeting to decide whether to allow deep-sea mining in international waters. Little is known about how this will affect ecosystems, but emerging data hint at long-term damage...

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02290-5

The world knows too little about deep-sea ecosystems to protect them from the long-lasting damage of sea-floor mining, says oceanographer Beth Orcutt, who discovered a deep-sea octopus nursery last month. Our knowledge gaps are immense: deep-sea corals are keystone species, yet scientists don’t really know how they reproduce. And we have no idea whether it’s possible to restore damaged deep sea floor. “We need research covering at least ten years for each habitat to be able to make evidence-based decisions,” says Orcutt...

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02369-z