Future of Oil & Gas Industry: Are we equipped to change our daily routine?
Knowing the fact that the world will not run out of oil (at least for the next few decades) along with the new discoveries and efficiency gains at existing oil fields, when are we expecting the ‘peak demand’? Whether the prediction on ‘peak-demand’ would replicate the ‘peak-oil’ forecast by King Hubbert? Are we prepared to face post-hydrocarbon age following peak-demand?
Are we going to be away from Olefins and Aromatics? That means, are we going to find a substitute for soaps, detergents, plastics, fertilisers, synthetic fibers, adhesives, foams, gels, tires, paints, digital devices, medical equipments, explosives,…………………. health care, furniture, electronics, clothing, packaging, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing of electric cars and batteries……?
With the increment of 15% between 2010 and 2020, when will the over-all demand for crude oil (is expected to) come down?
With the increment of 50% between 2010 and 2020, when will the demand for crude oil (is expected to) come down in the petro-chemical industry? Are there enough practical options available at present that could possibly reduce the demand for petro-chemicals in the next few decades? (In fact, the current demand of 10 million-barrels/day by petrochemical industry is expected to grow continuously/linearly in the next few decades). How effective the ‘recycling of plastic’ will be (that can potentially reduce the dependency on crude oil)?
Whether reducing dependency on crude oil for heating and power – will really make an impact (as both together contribute to just 10% of the total crude oil consumption)? Whether Decarbonization, Decentralization and Digitalization will really aid in shifting towards renewable energy?
Nearly 60% dependency on crude oil towards transport (cars/trucks/aviation/marine): Whether alternative energy sources could really make an impact in the near future (ex: rapid rise of electric carmakers such as Tesla Inc. and China’s BYD)?
Are we on the right track in limiting the global warming to well below 2 degress Celcius – following COVID19?
Refer to this article: Article A critical review of comparative global historical energy co...
dear Suresh Kumar Govindarajan
in a positive point of view: yes
in a negative point of view: no
in an objective point of view: maybe :-)
your last question isn't so easy to answer in a short or direct way, because the steps, rules, point of view, bilance, technology standards, rules, laws are so different around the world and what you have to do...
at the and the quesstion could be: is a limiting fo 2 degrees oder 1.5 degrees the right mark to measure it ?
maybe one of our methodes of efficiency and effectivnes decission making can help here for an more objective and not daily depending point of view:
Conference Paper Effizienzbewertung biomassebasierter PtX-Systeme
i take a loog for a more objective and english version and will send it.
best regards
feel free to contact me
dear Suresh Kumar Govindarajan
find the english files there
Conference Paper Evaluating the efficiency of Power-to-X technologies by adap...
Presentation Evaluating the Efficiency of Power-to-X Technologies by Adap...
Oil and gas together with other hydrocarbons are viewed as the bogeymen from the point of view of green house gases generation and climate change. This point of view is an opinion and, it is not a confirmed scientific fact that climate change is anthropogenic in origin or even due to CO2. - the jury is still out. Climate change is inevitable and humanity has to change its attitude and approach in order to mitigate the effects of climate change on humanity. Mitigation is where money should be spent. Humanity is greedy for natural resources and has been so throughout the history of "mankind". Humanity does not need to regress to the "stone age" but should ensure that the "finding" , production and exploitation of ALL resources is undertaken in a safe, clean and environmentally friendly manner with all humanity held accountable for the cost - no freeloaders, from suppliers to customers .If a"mess" is made the perpetrator of the mess should pay to clear it up and that includes the customers who enjoy "cheap" goods but are often ignorant of the damage to the world involved in fuelling their transport, building the windmills, assembling the solar panel arrays or canning their beer. More to the point, no mess should be made in the first place and the cost of "no mess" should be a fundamental part of the economics supply and demand curve, Humanity is adept at "shitting in their own backyard" and expecting others to pay for the clean up. For example the space race has resulted in a huge amount of "rubbish" in orbit around our planet. If you go into the wilderness you should only leave footprints. Humanity needs to learn how to shit in the woods - "take your shit back home". In so doing all humanity can enjoy the fruits of modern technology both present and future - learn lessons from the past to achieve equality and fairness in a sustainable and "clean" world.
It all started with Oil & the future is Gas based Industry. Together Oil & Gas is going to occupy prime position in the modern consumer products / Transport industries. Yes the sunrise areas of energy specially, solar, Hydrogen and lithium batteries and others will eventually make a dent in the basket share of Oil & Gas but not too early, as stated above.
A big energy resource of Gas hydrates needs to be exploited and expected to fillup the resource gap left by over-exploitation of Oil & Gas currently.
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