Fossil fuel’s dominance keeps continuing: Are the Renewable Energies just an addition and how long will it take to really replace the fossil fuels by the renewable energies?
IEA report says that between 1987 and 2017, the world’s energy consumption as a function of oil, natural gas and coal remains the same and stands at the same 81%. If so,
Are we NOT running out of fossil fuels?
and, above all,
Are we still NOT running away from fossil fuels?
Then, where are we heading towards - with reference to “climate change“ / “global-warming”?
Dear Suresh,
According to the rate of growth of the energy production using the renewable energy sources specially the PV generation, it may take some few decades such that the renewable energy overweight the fossil fuel energy generation.
I developed a road map for the growth of the PV stations based on the extrapolation of the current growth rate.
I invite you to read it in the paper at the link: Method From conventional to renewable energy transformation challenge
Best wishes
There are three primary fossil fuels available in the world for electricity generation: oil, natural gas, and coal. Today, the energy mix of most of the countries is dominate by the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation, with the exception of a very few countries, such as Costa Rica, for example, where renewable energy sources are the dominant energy sources in its energy mix.
According to almost all sources, the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation will continue to be the primary energy sources in the energy mix of most countries in the world by 2050. This is a valid argument for natural gas and in some countries also for coal. In the case of oil, it is expected that the use of this type of energy source for electricity generation will be in many countries, minimal in comparison with the level reached today or not be used at all.
The use of renewable energy sources for electricity generation will continue to increase during the coming decades in most of the countries, but will not completely replace fossil fuels at least before 2050. However, in few countries it is expected that the use of renewable energy sources will be the dominant energy force within their energy mix before 2050. However, it is important to stress, even for those countries with high participation of renewable energy sources for electricity generation in their energy mix, the use of fossil fuels for this purpose cannot be excluded, due to the specific characteristics of the renewable energy sources.
For more information I would like to suggest to read my books on the use of renewable energy sources in different regions of the world.
In this discussion I believe that food for thoughts is the interesting data of the IEA on investments. Data show a clear significant growth in renewables whilst a relatively stable investment in fossils (decline in fossil carbon). This suggest that in mid-long term renewables are growing. Another important the question is related to the geography of renewables and which one is dominant (FV, geothermal, wind, etc.). Kenya is doing a significant step in developping geothermal energy while other countries are planning different sources (wind, FV, etc.) and in any case an energy mix.
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