I’m trying to compose a timeline that projects threats and problems that cause uncertainty to health over the next century.
I’m interested in all long-term health issues including drug resistance, global warming impacts, the impact of technology, biological warfare and terrorism etc.
The closer these events are, the better we can predict when and if they’ll make an impact, but I'm interested in the lot (and the fuzzy logic of when and how big).
I've asked a similar question recently and I got a single good answer - but surely there's more than just one forward thinking researcher out there!
1. Have you heard of any major risks to health over the next 100 years?
2. When are these risks expected and why then?
3. Any predictions on impact size?
4. Do you have any references? They don’t need to be academic, but academic Is better.
5. Any other thoughts?
6. Do you want to receive this data once I’ve compiled it?
Thanks
Very interesting topic and project. Aside from the examples you've suggested, emerging zoonotic diseases is another well known ongoing threat, including such diseases as AIDS, SARS, Avian flu, Hendra virus, Dengue Fever, and of corse of current extreme concern, Ebola. There will be quite a lot of scientific literature on this topic.
Good point. Do you think these will become less prevalent or more so? Are they a product of intensive farming? Well avian flu is, I guess, but ebola isn't am I right?
Hmm this is attempt 3 at my respone - not sure if it's Researchgate or my device!
But is not just about agriculture, but the changing interface between humans and animals, ecological disruption, population pressures and importantly human mobility. Ebola has been known for nearly 40 years, but previous outbreaks remained in isolated villages and perhaps were self limiting, being so deadly. Now Earth is a Global Village far beyond the media dimension described by Marshall Macluwen, when he coined the phrase. When the virus reached a highly populated environment the game changed. I think AIDS followed a similar course, and SARS, but transmission routes and virulence affect spread, etc.
This is likely to become more rather than less frequent and belongs on the proximal end of the timeline. And the effects are likely to become more potentially catastrophic, I think, both economically and on the health systems. See below for some more info.
http://ecohealth-live.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Gubler-Emerging-Infectious-Diseases_A-Threat-to-Global-Public-Health-and-Economic-Security.ppt
PS the map in the ppt shows Hendra Virus which is our own emerging zoonotic disease here in Qld Australia, named after a suburb in which it was first seen, only several km away from where I live. It is harboured in fruit bats, which come in contact with horses in paddocks, which become very ill and can infect humans, dogs, cats. Very lethal in horses and people. Fortunately CSIRO scientists have quickly developed a horse vaccine which should limit transmission.
I think research is conducted to prevent/ minimize threads in all aspect. You can not prevent or minimize these without revealing them.
I agree. It's part of my objective to do some of this revealing. Being based in Sudan, do you have insight into some threats that need revealing, that are invisible to many of us elsewhere?
I vote for diseases transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The eggs of these mosquitoes are drought-resistant, they are invading more and more territory, and most efforts to eradicate them fail. Diseases transmitted by them of special concern are Dengue and Chikungunya, which have also been spreading.
I would not restrict only as mosquito-borne diseases . There are other ancient insects responsible for endemic . An example is the insect vector responsible for the transmittance of Chagas disease . This chronic disease is present in most of the Americas. Cases of it have already been detected in blood donors and organs in Europe. In this case the challenge is not just for Europe, with simple steps stops or prevents infection. But countries that have high infection rates , at some point must address the consequences of the chronicity of them . . For example, the T cruzi in chronic chagasic people can generate HF.
Thanks Emily and Silvina. I'll put those insect borne disease risks down in my list. As it happens, I've suffered from dengue myself and I've been told that under no circumstances can I be exposed a second time.
A good reference on risks and non-technology
Asun Galera
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
CERpIE - C. Recerca i Desenv. per a la Millora i Innov. de les Empreses
http://go.shr.lc/2fHIGMA
There are many emerging and re-emerging zoonoses, such as SARS, Bird flu, Swine flu, Hanta virus, West Nile fever, Dengue fever, Nipah virus, Rift Valley fever etc. are significant cause of morbidity and mortality in developing as well as developed nations.Further research should be conducted on molecular epidemiology, chemotherapy and vaccinology.
An old one! I presented this research in a conference in 2017!
Still interested though....
1. Re-purposing could reveal future threats of diseases.
2. Using advance bio-informatics tools would plausible to develop novel drug candidates rapidly, future.
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