Since July 2014, the US dollar is rising relatively to other currencies. I am interested by knowing the reasons behind this and if it continues to rise in the next future months.
PRESENT: The US dollar is quite stable on month-to-month basis in recent months. There is no significant trend for rising in value. For trend analysis, see: http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/apr/section2/apr234.htm
PAST TO PRESENT (2014 - 2015): The dollar had been rising on one year span, but is losing value since April 2015. See graph: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR&view=2Y
The value of the US dollar is managed through the US Federal Reserve who reviews interest rate. The Federal Reserve Board meets every Monday to review interest rates. If the value of the dollar is "managed" through weekly monitoring, time series modeling would not be effective in forecasting the US dollar. The forecast horizon for practical purpose should be "weekly" in in months.
FACTORS AFFECTING US DOLLAR RATE: Although interest rate is the main factor, other factors also have effect on US dollar valuation:
-short and long term bond rates
-US Quarterly output report
-US consumer confidence report
-US policy announcement
-Reaction from the global market to US policy
-US Presidential election 2016
-Etc.
Since April 2014, the US dollar has been rising in value. However, since April 2015, it has been on the decline. See chart link. We are in the second/third quarter, surely the US would also want to boost exports for a good show of year-end report for export volume 2015---this would make sense to see the dollar decline from now until the end of the year of 2015. The movement towards that direction already begin since April 2015.
CONTINUE TO RISE? No, it cannot happen. It is managed by the US Federal Reserved Board. Policy assessment of interest rate is made every Monday (on weekly basis). This is anti-trend policy intervention. Any attempt in long-term forecast would most likely be inaccurate.
In 2016, there will be US presidential election. Whichever party think that it will win will also want to push for weak dollars advocating strong export promotion. Therefore, even if the horizon is expanded to 2016, the prospect (not trend) is that the dollar would fall in value.
http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR&view=2Y
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/
I agree with Dear Paul Louangrath, Thanks for your in-depth answer.
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