As to chaos theory and disease spread see for example:
Chaos theory applied to the outbreak of COVID-19: an ancillary approach to decision making in pandemic context
Epidemiol Infect. 2020; 148: e95.Published online 2020 May 8. doi: 10.1017/S0950268820000990
S. Mangiarotti, M. Peyre, Y. Zhang, M. Huc, F. Roger, and Y. Kerr
And:
https://clinowl.com/covid-19-pandemic-and-chaos-theory/
But what about the effects of disease management?
In chaos theory some disease management parameters may be very sensitive to small changes in initial conditions and rates, such as population densities, pre-existing population immunities, blood types, ages, urban densities, cultural norms about travel, meetings, and social gatherings.
Would some of the variance between countries be explained, partly, by chaos theory?
This question should not excuse dismantling epidemic warning systems in some countries (at least one) before the pandemic struck, lack of preparation and lies told to the public by politicians and officials.
Are there articles about pandemic response and chaos theory?
UK Telegraph Newspaper, 18 October, 2020.
Article title: Peru has the toughest lockdown in the world and still ended up with the worst fatality rate.
By Daniel Hannan.
From the article:
`the desire to attribute human agency, to find someone to blame, is embedded deep in our DNA. We would rather demand crackdowns than accept that we are dealing with something outside our control.'
Financial times, online report, at October 21, 2020:
Covid-19: The global crisis — in data
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/
From the article:
Yet for all the patterns that appear in the data, the resurgence also demonstrates the outsized role seemingly played by random chance in the story of Covid-19.
Please go through this title. Hope you can find many answers
Factors Associated with Increased Morbidity and Mortality of Obese and Overweight COVID-19 Patients
Gaber El-Saber Batiha
Thank you for pointing it out, and good to see you so current.
I happened to notice this paper yesterday (October 21) but only read the conclusions.
To find it:
Biology 2020, 9, 280;
doi:10.3390/biology9090280
regards
OCT 24TH 2020 The Economist Bartleby What the armed forces can teach business — Fighting spirit
[Add to that: What the armed forces can teach us about responding to a pandemic. What is that? Plan and strategize.]
From the article:
The ideal command structure is not a rigid hierarchy, he [ Mr. Tennant] argues, but a sphere, where the core sets the culture and the parts of the organisation at the edge are free to react to events outside them. In effect, the contrast is between centralised command and decentralised execution.
“The more we think about hypotheticals, the less space there is for unknown unknowns,” he says
... when the environment changes, experience counts for less.
Companies need those at the sharp end of the business to be adaptive and responsive.
I’m not sure if chaos theory explains variations in the prevalence or the fatality of the disease. While lockdowns do no appear to be an explanatory factor in either the prevalence or fatality of the disease, I do think it is worth looking at different policy responses. For instance, did places that focused more on protecting the most vulnerable experience less mortality and morbidity? Given the number of elderly people in Florida, we would have expected higher mortality and morbidity than New York, but this has so far not been the case. Some explanatory factors may be found in systems and network theory. if we expect COVID-19 infections to be extensive through a population just like the flu or the common cold, than people’s networks and how people interact with their networks may better explain differences in mortality and morbidity.
Management of COVID.19 depends on awareness , economical level and health infrastructures in the country with outstanding policymakers.
On concerns about country management of COVID-19, the Great Barrington Declaration was signed October 4, 2020 and is online:
https://gbdeclaration.org/
From its introduction:
The Great Barrington Declaration – As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.
Taking positions contrary to some of those in the Great Barrington Declaration is the John Snow Memorandum, published in The Lancet, link:
https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/
Academic level and ranking of medical colleges may enhance control program, and eradicate COVID.19 in country.
Covid .19 , have no effective treatment up to date.
Therapy for Early COVID-19 November 11, 2020
By Peter S. Kim; Sarah W. Read; Anthony S. Fauci
JAMA. 2020;324(21):2149-2150. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.22813
From the article: Effective, early treatments will also mitigate gaps left by previous and current prevention strategies and curtail forward transmission.
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