One can find expected exchange rates (or future contracts) for today. But, for example, which was the expected exchange rate for June 25, 1995 in June 25, 1994?
Hi
This information may be useful to U:
http://www.futuretoolkit.com/ozdollar.htm
http://people.stern.nyu.edu/rlevich/f2000/fx090100.pdf
Futures contracts tell you nothing about expected exchange rates unfortunately since they must satisfy the riskless arbitrage condition. If I have $1000 US dollars and the spot rate is, say, 1.5 versus the British pound, I can buy 666 pounds. Suppose the UK one-year gilt is 10%, then in one-year's time I would have 1.1x666 pounds=733 pounds. Alternatively I could buy a one-year UST which say yielded 5% and I would have $1050 in a year's time. I buy a one-year future's contract. It has to be $1.43 to the pound or else I can make infinite profits. This is not the expected future spot rate unless the interest parity view of exchange rate determination is held by all.
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