Recent adjustments in some of the trade relations, such as the decisions of the United Kingdom to leave the European Union and the United States to renegotiate and re-evaluate their main trade agreements in force have caused concern about the possible escalation of barriers and disputes. commercial. The imposition of tariffs and trade barriers as well as disputes over certain products could be intensified if other countries respond with reprisals.
Do you think that an increasingly restrictive environment in terms of international trade could reduce the growth prospects in the medium term, due to the interdependence that exists between trade, investment and productivity growth?
It is highly likely that a restrictive environment for international trade can reduce growth expectations in the medium term.
In my view the restrictive environment in trade relations would have a short term effect but in the medium and long term restrictions would be bypassed by those countries still willing to engage more in the globalized economy. The restricting nations would suffer the most.
Of course, more tariff barriers by reducing trade will restrain growth to the extent that countries will not be able to relocate at equivalent costs, which will reduce purchasing power and consumption. In addition, the global value chain will be disrupted, which will require costly reorganization of supplies as well as direct investments. China would be particularly affected, having been the driving force behind global growth for the past 15 years. Nevertheless, the short- and medium-term effects could be less severe than those of a financial crisis, for which it is not clear whether or not it can be caused by protectionist attacks.
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