Do you think that a nation-wide complete lockdown is a scientific solution of COVID-19 OR it is just an experiment? What can there be other effective measures to fight this natural calamity?
The experiment was already done by the Chinese, it was a success, so in a state of emergency why not take them as an example?
I think this lockdown strategy will soon become a back stabbing slow death process for entire community. At this transition, formulation of protocols regarding use of suitable PPE is must not only for health professionals but also for workforces. The global leaders should utilise the RMG capacity of developing countries in order to fix the current disruptive supply chain regarding PPE.
Kindly refer to the below link:
Research Use of PPE in response of coronavirus (COVID-19): A smart so...
Dear Dr Ariful Islam,
I agree with you. It appears that lockdown was implemented in a haste, without proper preparation. Sufficient attention seems to be lacking to use of suitable PPE, which is a must for health professionals. May God bless us.
R K Saxena
I think lockdown is the only option to control the spread of highly contagious and incurable coronavirus disease (COVID-19).
Sudden announcement of lockdown will be of no use unless it is supported by other measures, particularly medical preparation, maintenance of supply chain, taking care of daily wage labourers who are far away from their homes, etc. There is a long list. What will nurses and other health care workers do without enough stock of PPEs? This is the time of harvesting but who is to take care of crops? There are plethora of issues that are to addressed. Lockdown alone will be helpless to help.
This lock down is clearly an experiment with varying doses in different countries. However in the way the experiment has been conducted the blind have been leading the blind.
The evidence we have on the management of pandemics goes as far back as the 1918 influenza pandemic. More contemporary outbreaks include, Zika (2015–2016), SARS (2002 to 2003) and the Ebola (2014 to 2016).
None of those situations led to a lock down of the entire world. This situation is therefore an experiment. There is no precedent for this. The curve of the pandemic will certainly be flattened. Whether there will be less deaths overall is debatable. The damage to the economy is certainly much higher with the lock down.
There are MANY different kinds of "Lock Down", with the China method as the most severe but at the same time, the most successful. In California since March 16, we have been on "Lock Down Lite" which means you can still travel out of your home and it is still optional to wear a face mask and gloves when you are out, and no widespread testing available, and the homeless people still living on the street, and 20 different businesses are able to stay open, but the people working in those business not wearing gloves face masks yet. Plus people able to go in and out of areas, to spread the virus elsewhere.
The USA has known for two years, what the implications of the virus is going to be, because in 2018, the John Hopkins Center for Health Security ran a simulation called "Parainfluenza Clade X" to determine what the potential would be of a virus pandemic, and they concluded: "...twenty months 150 million people worldwide--two percent of the global population--have died."
"...The global economy has collapsed under the strain, with the Dow Jones average down 90 percent. U.S. GDP down 50 percent, and unemployment at 20 percent. Washington is barely functioning--the president and vice president are both ill, one one-third of Congress is dead or incapacitated."
People involved in that simulation were Tom Daschle (former leader of US Senate), Dr. Julie Gerberding (former head CDC), Jim Talen (former Missouri senator)--Why are all of these people keeping quiet right now, and not telling us what they saw in the global virus pandemic simulation only two years ago, and helping lead us out of this mess, with some new simulations???!!!
This simulation information and attendee list is from pages 201-203 of the Bryan Walsh book, "END, A Brief Guide to the End of the World: Asteroids, Supervolcanoes, Rogue Robots, and more", published in 2019.
Details about the John Hopkins "CLADE X" exercise can be read at
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/index.html
http://healthscienceplus.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-2019-covid-19.html
Sir
I think looking at whole world scenario the lockdown is the only solution to break down the speed of the transmission. This gives a enough time to govt to prepare for medical requirements as well as it also gives us enough time to train yourself and society to fight against this virus. How we have take the precaution after the lockdown because virus is not totally going finish in this lockdown period. Lockdown helps in reducing the damage and preparing for future threats. I think we must follow the lockdown as well as motivate others to realize the necessity of this hard decision by our govt. Govt. has to increase the daily test capacity to control this pandemic. Govt has to start the random test of the quarantine people to further slow down the spread of this virus not waiting for infected person to come for test. Aggressive test policy and tracing of contact person need to be done. Jai Bharat
The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the
COVID-19 outbreak in China. J Travel Med. 2020 Mar 17:taaa037. doi:
10.1093/jtm/taaa037.
According to the Chinese experience, the lockdown of wuhan and the people’s cooperation by staying home were the key in covid 19 fighting.
The massive transmission nature of this virus comparing with previous simillar corona viruses makes the lockdown and quarantine the most valuable method to prevent its spreading.
Many cities in China, even not so far from wuhan, have less than 100 infected cases because of this strategy.
Dear Dr. R. K. Saxena,
I think that a nation-wide complete lockdown plus Precautionary measures against COVID-19 is a solution as on date. I totally agree with the answer provided by Dr. Fatema Tabak and few other respected members.
Precautionary measures against COVID-19:
Source: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/coronavirus-in-india-10-ways-to-make-sure-you-dont-catch-the-disease/articleshow/74488435.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Again go through this article: https://www.amarujala.com/photo-gallery/lifestyle/fitness/coronavirus-crisis-49-days-lockdown-in-india-is-must-for-covid-19-solution
The above article says that: Meanwhile, researchers at the University of Cambridge have called for a 49-day lockdown to deal with Corona.
I hope the information will help you.
With Best Wishes,
Samir G Pandya
I am in California, and those measures ARE NOT strict enough. You need to be wearing GLOVES and a MASK at all times, when going out.
The "Not needing a mask" rule was made here in the USA, because we do not have enough masks for everyone, so the rule-makers did not want the health care workers to run out, and were willing to sacrifice the rest of us.
And that is is probably facing India right now, do you have 1.4 billion of free masks for all the people right now? Plus tens of billions of pairs of free latex gloves?
And the three feet rule is NOT enough-- our California rule is 6 feet or two meters, and that still may not be enough, because a cough can stay viable in the air for a while. When you walk in a room where someone coughed 15 minutes ago, that airborne virus is still viable, so that "social distance" rule gets wadded up and thrown in the garbage can.
Plus, touching surfaces that other people touch, like door handles, gas pumps, key pads, computer touch screen, etc. is probably the cause of most of the new cases each day,
The new rule should be DO NOT GO into rooms with other people more than once a week, then do your business as quickly as possible, without touching any surfaces---And then run like a scared rabbit home to your safe space, like the Eagle of Death is after you?
AND NEVER get into cars with other people, or buses, trains or airplanes until the pandemic is over? FORGET any government "Travel advisories" --YOU CANNOT TRAVEL, it as simple as that!!
Worldwide, everyone needs to become an "Untouchable" for a while.
Dear Craig Carlton Dremann,
Here in India, there is complete lockdwon as per announcement but in realty .........................? Several thousands of hungry poor people, including infants and children, from all parts of India, gathered at Delhi border in the hope of getting some means to reach their villages and many started movig towards their homes on bicycle, rickshaw and even on foot. Can you expect them to follow social distancing and other norms. It was so pathetic that I could not stop tears coming out. Preachings apart, I simply wish God to be kind to Indians. I think that is the only hope.
R K Saxena
If you check https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ you can see when each country starts getting the virus issues under control.
I agree, even here in California and the rest of the USA, we have been on "Lockdown Lite" which means people going out without masks or gloves, and getting together with families, and the homeless still living on the streets, so our doubling time for new cases has remained every three days for the USA overall, which is a massive increase each week.
India is starting out at doubling every 5 days, which mirrors what Spain and Italy were seeing earlier this month, and now Spain and Italy have been able to stretch their doubling rates to every 8-9 days, like China was able to, when they first started getting the pandemic under control in February.
It is a pure mathematical exponential curve--we MUST increase the time for the doubling rate in each country. For example, if the USA is unable to slow down our doubling rate of every three days, every single person, over 300 million people, will have the virus in the USA, in only 4 weeks, on April 30.
It is more than just an experiment. Look at the spectacular results of the Chinese government with their decisions of a total containment at the epicenter of the contamination-
My Excel charts are not looking good, with all hell breaking loose in the next 30 days, just because the Lockdown was NOT put in place immediately when the first cases appeared in each country. And then, when the spread started, did not go from Lockdown to complete quarantine like China did for 2 months in Wuhan.
Everyone MUST immediately go into quarantine in each country, in order not to suffer to much--the curves are not changing fast enough.
With the progress of time we have seen the great benefit of locking down the community quickly and effectively on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia. Once the virus is established in the community lockdowns will have little benefit.
However there is a huge economic cost to the lockdown.
Infection with this virus is inevitable. Lock downs are flattening the curve so that healthcare systems can cope to prevent excess deaths.
There may be more deaths as a result of economic meltdown than from the virus.
lock down is beneficial and as there is no confirm medicine of SARS-CoV-2 to completely recover the patient , the only option to control the transmission of highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 may be lock down.
With the simple monitoring of the number of days for the doubling of new cases, can have everyone on the planet become the judges of the effectiveness of their own country's methods. And if the current methods are failing, as they are here in the USA, insist that more stringent methods are employed immediately, to slam the brakes on the virus.
That is the only weakness that the virus has--we watch and monitor and change our behaviors so we do not become prey. The doubling times in China, starting when they had about 1,200 cases on January 24--Two days, then one day, 2 days, 3 days, 5 days, 8 days, then the doubling stopped on February 15, and since then less than a 10% increase, because they were applying the brakes all along, then slammed on the brakes in late February to early March. I am confident we can all do that too, slam on the brakes in only 3 weeks, and stop the doubling of the new cases?
An interesting adverse effect of social isolation for the Covid-19 pandemic has arisen. There has been a dramatic fall in the number of blood donors in Saudi Arabia a result of social isolation during the Covid-19 Pandemic. Supplies of blood are being depleted. This is likely to be a global phenomenon
Patients may die as a result of not being transfused blood severe acute bleeding due to stress ulceration, for example. If the patient has severe or critical Covid-19, the cause of death is actually the Covid-19 but it is likely to be coded as GI tract bleeding.
Lies, damned lies and statistics as Disraeli said. It will be impossible to unpick the true effect of Covid-19 on patient outcomes.
The only option right now is social distancing to avoid the spread of the disease. Lockdown is to enforce the same. The ideal situation can be people maintaining social distancing and working with full PPE so that economy also works and at the same time patient tracking can be done to track and control disease.
GOOD NEWS from California and the USA on April 2--The days to doubling of total cases is lengthening. In California our total case numbers were doubling like clockwork, every 3-4 days between March 8 and March 29th. We put on "Lockdown Lite" on the 16th. Then from March 30 to today, the numbers are now doubling every 12 days. Once every country ON THE PLANET goes on a severe-enough lockdown for at least a month, then the total number of cases and days to double, start stretching out after 2 weeks of Lockdown.
Yesterday, President Trump was still refusing to do any lockdowns in any of the Republican states that support him, which means that a lot of his supporters will be too sick or dead, to be able to vote in November?
Dear Craig Carlton Dremann,
Congratulations for the good news. However, In India the numbers of infected persons have doubled in about 3 days. Here lockdown is complete for the namesake. I hope with more strictness, conditions may improve. I simply pray God to be kind to us.
R K Saxena
Until the lockdowns are instituted in each country on the planet, lasting for at least 30 days, there will continue to be 3, 4, or 5 day doubling times for the total cases. It is as if there is a grass fire, and we must make a fire-break to separate the fires from the unburned fuels, and stay in our homes, until the fires die out?
Dear Craig Carlton Dremann,
Yes, I agree with you. But for that, large scale preparations will be required up to grassroot level without linking them to religion, caste or creed, poor/rich and elections. Humanity must be at the uppermost. When there are problems of coordination among various states of the same nation, coordination among the nations of entire planet will be an uphill task, though that is need of the hour. Let us see what is in the store for us. May God bless us all.
R K Saxena
The total world cases today went over one million, and the doubling rate world-wide since March 13, has been every 7 days.
Unless every country starts Lockdown immediately, and right now, for at least the next 4-5 weeks--otherwise, the cases could keep doubling every 7 days, and that could result in 16 million cases by April 30th. The simple effort of staying home for the next 30 days, could slow down and stop this virus.
To control the Covid-19 pandemic effectively, healthcare professionals and the public must hear and accept difficult truths.
Transmission of the virus can not be stopped it can only be delayed to allow healthcare systems to cope with the increased demand on services. So please preserve respirator face masks for healthcare professionals who must care for patients infected with SARS-CoV-2.
Unfortunately, rather than being honest; authorities have repeatedly changed advice about the need to wear facemasks. As a result, healthcare professionals and the public can no longer trust what is being said. The mistrust has been fuelled by conflicting messages for healthcare professionals and the general public.
In the current situation the only safe thing for anyone to do is to try to wear facemasks that provide the best protection. The real difficulty is that the best medical grade respirator face masks are in extremely short supply. Healthcare professionals, putting their lives on the line, need these masks to protect themselves from their infected patients.
Up to 25% of healthcare professionals in the UK are either off work due to sickness or because of suspected exposure. Excess deaths occur when healthcare systems can not care for patients who need treatment. The more healthcare workers who go off sick, the less care sick patients can receive.
The public can be protected by social distancing. As an intensivist I do not have this option, I must get very near to patients to look after them. I will be honest; respirator face masks do protect people from transmission of Covid-19. Cloth face masks are unlikely to protect uninfected people but are likely to reduce spread of virus from those infected with SARS-CoV-2. Not going near patients with Covid-19 is more effective. I therefore ask the public to fully engage with social distancing and preserve the medical grade face masks for healthcare professionals who do not have this option.
Three items: 1.) Yes, the virus CAN and MUST be stopped, like it was in less than a month in China, by going on quarantine, and not allowing anyone to move around the country to spread the virus.
2.) EVERYONE must wear a cloth mask when outdoors with other people, and yes, save the N95s and the better quality mask for the health workers!
3.) I have added my Excel chart-work on Research Gate at Deleted research item The research item mentioned here has been deleted
Dear Rajkumar Rajendram,
Thanks for your in-depth and convincing reply.
R K Saxena
April 5 - In California, after only 2-1/2 weeks of "Lockdown Lite" which means you can still travel from State to State or from County to County, the biggest issues are lack of income and restlessness.
Because others like to buy our US Treasury bonds, and $24 Trillion in debt, we are about to vacuum out a couple of more trillion from the rest of the world to save ourselves, to pay our workers while they are on lockdown for a month or two. How is each country going to keep paying their workers while on lockdown?
Then, there is restlessness?We are billions of primates, who over the last 5,000 years, have become used to living in hive-like colonies--going to and fro on a daily basis, and interacting with dozens of non-family members each day. That is the glue that keeps our hive structures intact on an hour-to-hour and day-by-day basis.
Agreements that you have with everyone around you,that keeps the hive functioning week-to-week and month-by-month, that the stores will have food on the shelves, and the farm workers will be out picking the produce you need to live, and the electricity will keep flowing through the wires?
Plus, even the ex-situ "interactions"where the individuals participate as observers, must also cease, like the sports events, concerts, wars, and battles—while we are locked in our own little family-unit-worlds for a couple of months?
Will that hive-structure start breaking down, when the interactions must cease for months, or will individuals get restless, and resume contact too soon, like Trump wants us to, and keep spreading the virus that way?
What to do if you get Covid-19.
These recommendations apply to young adults with no medical conditions. If you have medical conditions or any concerns it is best to speak to your doctor for specific advice. This is particularly important if you have a pre-existing lung condition or are taking immunosuppressant medications.
Prepare for a nasty chest infection.
Things you have to hand
• face tissues,
• Acetaminophen; for a fever over 38°c, take acetaminophen rather than Ibuprofen.
• Generic, cough medicine to thin mucus (check the label make sure that it does not contain paracetamol; otherwise you could double dose and get side effects)
• vaporub for your chest is also a great suggestion.
• humidifier would be useful; however, turning on a hot shower and breathing in the steam in the bathroom may also help.
• Food: soups are ideal
• Drink: stay well hydrated, water is fine
Prevent transmission
• Rest and do not leave your house. You could be infectious for fourteen days.
Avoid elderly people and those with pre-existing health conditions.
• Wear gloves and a mask to avoid transmitting the infection
• If you do not live alone. Isolate yourself in your bedroom. Ask those you live with to leave things outside to avoid contact.
• Wash your bed linen and clothes frequently. sanitise your bathroom.
The vast majority of Covid-19 cases in healthy adults can manage at home with rest, hydration, acetaminophen, cough medicine.
Go to hospital if you are having trouble breathing or your fever is very high (over 39°C) and not settling with acetaminophen and cooling with ice packs or if you are worried, in distress or feel your symptoms are getting worse.
If you have any medical conditions please seek specialist advice from your doctor.
PARTICLES and the virus--We are discovering here in California, that the virus can "hitch hike" on particles. When someone breathes, or coughs or sneezes, the rule is keep two meters apart. But that seems to only work in clean air, with no smog or smoke particles, or tobacco smoke, or salt spray particles if you are at the beach.
A smoker could be like a long distance virus spreader, the virus riding for hundreds of meters carried on that smoker, since tobacco smoke as it comes from a cigarette is an extremely concentrated aerosol with a relatively stable distribution of sizes ranging from 0.1 to 1.0 micron, peaked between 0.2 and 0.25 micron. So not only can you breath in the virus, but it could get deep into your lungs that way.
Maybe this is a good time for the human race to stop smoking tobacco?
In Saudi Arabia the lock down has resulted in depletion of medications. There is no warfarin available. Antimicrobials are in very short supply. Shipping charges have increased significantly. The situation is likely to be similar in other countries.
If medications are depleted mortality from non-Covid disease may be increased.
We must urgently determine which medications are effective for this condition to avoid wastage.
The decreases in availability of medications in California, does not seem to be a factor in the morality rate--However, staying home, and wearing a mask when out in public, seem to be the keys to survival. And washing hands and wiping the commonly-touched surfaces with alcohol, like door knobs, light switches, car steering wheels, computer keyboards, tv remotes, seems to help a lot, also.
What that means, is everyone in the country, from children to the 100-year olds, need at least a couple of masks, that they can clean by heating in the oven after they use them when they go out?
I have been tracking KSA total cases on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries and you have one of the slowest doubling rates on the planet, originally every 6 days until April 3, now stretched to every 8 days. If KSA is able to maintain strict quarantine rules, and EVERYONE wear a mask when they go out, your country may suffer the least and get it under control much faster than most?
1969 song "Somethings in the Air" by Thunderclap Neuman says it all:
"Intro : Call out the instigators Because there's something in the air We've got to get together sooner or later...
[Bridge : Thunderclap Newman] Lock up the streets and houses Because there's something in the air..."
I am writing from the middle of the pandemic in California on April 20, with the USA going to probably hit one million cases in a few weeks, increasing between 11,000 and 23,000 cases a day right now. We seem to have three choices, that have been successful worldwide, to a lesser or greater degree:
1.) DENIAL and SLOW to lockdown...Like the USA, UK and Russia, are yesterday on April 19 at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries -- Numbers one, two and three with the most new cases, at the last 24 hour increasing at 23,000 USA, 6,000 Russia, and 5,800 for the UK!
2.) Lockdown LITE.. WITHOUT mediatory face masks for everyone, and still allowing travel between provinces or between cities or between States, and allowing plane, train, bus, and auto travel--the virus slows down, but remains at a simmering level, and slowly spreading sparks to reignite the pandemic, like Los Angeles and New York City. No tracing of cases, not enough testing, certain country's politicians anxious to reopen societies while the pandemic still rages to save their economies, not separating infected individuals from the rest of society, homeless people still roaming on the streets.
3.) CHINA SEVERE LOCKDOWN.. Mask for EVERYONE, STOP all travel, trace all cases, massive testing, isolate infected individuals from the rest of society, ZERO homeless people roaming on the street.
Something ECONOMICALLY--and completely unexpected happened in the USA today--The West Texas pumping oil wells cannot be shut down, that supply the pipelines, ran out of storage capacity. So, a week ago was trading at $40 barrel, then by Friday dropped to $18 a barrel. Then, today, April 20, the oil companies paid people, and started giving away 5 MILLION of barrels of oil PER DAY for free, and pay $37 a barrel to get rid of it! The computers that track commodity prices did not know how to record the give away, usually could not go below one cent per barrel, and into negative territory?
Thanks to all participants, particularly Craig Carlton Dremann, for your views and personal experiences. My question was:
"Do you think that a nation-wide complete lockdown is a scientific solution of COVID-19 OR it is just an experiment?"
In the beginning, most of us said 'Yes'. This appeared to be the only solution but our experience during last three weeks does not support this to be the only option (I agree with Jeev Nath Banjara).
The major issues remained the late and unplanned lockdown coupled with lack of backing of medical facilities, shortage of medical kits and PPEs, poor administration, shortage of food in several areas, nation-wide superstition, etc. And above all Politics, taking credit for all the "Good" and discredit to others for all the "Bad". After all, they have to use it in the next election. The media is no less irresponsible and is playing the worst role.
Let us see where it ends and how much the world has to suffer? Hope for the GOOD to come at the earliest.
R K Saxena
The Lockdown maybe just one phase we are going through, to become butterflies?
If we think that we have been living like caterpillars, munching away at the planet for hundreds of years under certain economic, political and medical patterns?
And the Coronavirus is making all of us go into our pupae right now, so we can dissolve all of those structures, and then rebuild with only the essentials, with as little waste as possible, and with equality for all in terms of meeting everyone's basic needs, and emerge with as little impact on the planet's environments, as the beautiful butterflies we could be?
RUSSIA is in really huge, BIG TROUBLE today...Not able to change its total case doubling rates from the every 4-5 days that have been occurring since March 31, so today are 52,000 cases April 21, when April 26 will be 112,000, then May 1st 224,000 total cases.
The numbers will start to go down IF and WHEN Russian actually start to give every person masks and has a total Lockdown. Every week, you need to double the number of days to double.
So if you start with the total number of cases of 100 on May 1, and you first doubling to 200 is 4 days later, then your next doubling day of 400 should be 8 days later, then 16 days later, doubling to 800 total cases, etc. If every week, your doubling rate stays more or less the same, you pandemic is not under control yet. However, Russia has been a major "virus-denial" country, see article "Apr 3, 2020 - Russia arrests doctor for giving out masks against coronavirus..."
From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#total-cases --- some very good news today! The "Bell-shape curve" is starting to form!
Its like trying to protect the canopy builder trees of a climax rainforest from a severe forest fire by digging trough in between them as well as spraying their trunks with fire retardants and doing nothing preemptive or mitigative by being bystanders with the hope of containing the spread of fire within the excavated troughs. There can be several analogies made regarding the current situation but lock-down of the university labs and forcing the amply skilled researchers to sit idly by while they can all contribute to the betterment of science as well as use their resources to find possible way out of the present predicament may not be the best long term solution.
the scientific labs must be opened...infact all the forces must b focused on one point that is providing the already granted covid 19 funds for lab research...Researchers know how to play their role
Instead of waiting for a vaccine, we should try a more direct approach, like
From https://www.drugtargetreview.com/news/60108/researchers-reveal-how-remdesivir-prevents-covid-19-viral-replication
Researchers reveal how remdesivir prevents COVID-19 viral replication
According to a new study, the drug remdesivir is a very potent inhibitor for coronavirus polymerases – demonstrating its potential for combatting COVID-19.
Researchers have demonstrated how the drug remdesivir is successful at preventing viral replication of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.
Scientists at the University of Alberta, Canada, followed on from research published in February that showed how remdesivir works against the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) virus, a related coronavirus.
“We were optimistic that we would see the same results against the SARS-CoV-2 virus,” said Matthias Götte, chair of medical microbiology and immunology at Alberta. “We obtained almost identical results as we reported previously with MERS, so we see that remdesivir is a very potent inhibitor for coronavirus polymerases.”
The new study suggests that the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) is like the engine of the virus, responsible for synthesising the virus’ genome.
“If you target the polymerase, the virus cannot spread, so it’s a very logical target for treatment,” Götte said.
The lab’s work shows how remdesivir tricks the virus by mimicking its building blocks. When the coronavirus RdRp is duped, the inhibitor is incorporated many times and the virus can no longer replicate.
Götte said the evidence from his group, along with previously published studies in animal and cell culture models, means that remdesivir can be classified as a ‘direct-acting antiviral’ against SARS-CoV-2.
While Götte said the evidence justifies clinical trials, he cautioned that the results obtained in the lab cannot be used to predict how the drug will work with people.
“We’ve got to be patient and wait for the results of the randomised clinical trials,” said Götte. However, he is optimistic that the unprecedented amount of research going on worldwide and the high level of co-operation between researchers will lead to the discovery of one or more effective treatments for COVID-19.
The study was published in the Journal of Biological Chemistry.
I have been using Excel, to chart future trends, and here is today's forecast:
APRIL 26 - The current trends worldwide suggest that the dropping of new cases overall, will take at least another month...mostly because of the USA's weak response to date, causing about 1/3 of the worldwide cases so far. The projected total number of cases worldwide, today April 26 will be over 3,000,000.
Then, about once a week, total cases may increase by one million new cases.
May 2 should have four million.. then, May 7 maybe five million...then, May 12 perhaps six million worldwide..unless the USA and all of the denier countries --Brazil, Russian and the UK-- start having EVERY person wearing a mask when they go out, and separate the ill from the healthy, to stop the spreading?
And no country should get off lockdown, until new cases are at ZERO for at least a month? Then, travelers should not be allowed into a virus-free country, from any country where the virus has not eradicated? You need to put out all of the embers to stop a fire?
WORLDWIDE--Very hot summer?...Because the lack of airplanes flying, means that the high altitude cloud seeding the 37 million flights do every minute of every day, has been lost--so that means those contrail clouds will not be there to reflect the sun's heat back into space? See the article from 2010, https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Bright-Green/2010/0201/Airplane-contrails-and-their-effect-on-temperatures
I did a painting about this effect, above, at www.ecoseeds.com/art3.html with the title: "Title: "Mysterious signs in the skies above downtown Palo Alto, autumn 2016--the jet contrails are exhaust particles several miles high forming ice cirrus clouds, an interesting cloud-seeding planetary science-experiment, where in the United States alone there are 5,000 planes airborne at any given time, and daily 87,000 planes fly over the USA, and worldwide over 37 million flights per year." Acrylics on canvas, 8" x 8" Painting #51 in catalogue. Copyright image and text © 2016 by Craig Carlton Dremann, all right reserved.
Every response to a new threat is an experiment because nobody really knows what to do. All new complex crises force us to develop new solutions that have never been tested, therefore they are all experiments. We used many of the lockdown methods you have seen today in other pandemics in the past, but since every pandemic id different, every response is an experiment.
In the USA, April is National Poetry Month.. so a lot of people around the country, are having fun writing some Coronavirus Haiku, including myself with 73 offerings so far, at http://www.ecoseeds.com/virus-haiku.html --Some serious ones and hopefully a few funny ones, to give everyone some belly-laughs?
Preventive solutions:
1- Hygiene
2- Physical distancing
3- Warm environment:
Preprint Atmospheric Variables and Additional Urgent Solutions for Co...
4- References about experimental medication based approaches in:
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Effectiveness_of_chloroquine_and_hydroxychloroquine_as_a_treatment_for_CORONA
We are as characters living in a very new scenario and without a secure/finished script.
I think we need the contributions from a wide shared knowledge from lots of disciplines.
A world wide pandemic needs earn solutions from a world wide knowledge contributions.
The only rapid method, to get close to the end of any pandemic, is quarantine, quarantine, quarantine!
Any other method is going to take months to years..meanwhile a pandemic explodes to untreatable and out of control proportions within hour and days, so every country MUST apply the brakes very HARD right now, to be able to see the trends toward the day and month it may end?
And my European ancestors... learned that lesson 643 years ago, when the first quarantine was put in place, to stop the Black Plague --(https://www.history.com/news/quarantine-black-death-medieval)
--The Adriatic port city of Ragusa... (modern-day Dubrovnik) was the first to pass legislation requiring the mandatory quarantine of all incoming ships and trade caravans in order to screen for infection.
The order, which miraculously survived in the Dubrovnik archives, reads that on July 27, 1377, the city’s Major Council passed a law “which stipulates that those who come from plague-infested areas shall not enter [Ragusa] or its district unless they spend a month on the islet of Mrkan or in the town of Cavtat, for the purpose of disinfection.”
Except for China with their style of Lockdown...in the USA is still allowing people to travel around by car, by bus, by trains, by planes---and still from city to city, from State and Province within each country, and from country to country. And by allowing those movements, we went from 15 cases on February 15 to over one million in only 75 days!
With the current trend line at ...https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ for total cases, the USA will add another half million in only two weeks--about MAY 16, unless each of our States, like New York (4,781 new cases added in 24 hours), New Jersey (2,388 new), Illinois (2,563 new), Pennsylvania (2,271 new), and California (1,574 new in 24 hours) star putting the brakes on HARD.
Then, the downside for all of the rest of the world's countries..is if you allow ANY Americans into your country, until we get our own new cases to zero per day, sometime in the distant future. Why get your own country cases under control, just to get reinfected by allowing other out-of-control countries people AND GOODS arrive and reinfect you?
Dear Craig Carlton Dremann,
I fully agree with you. Quarantine, quarantine and quarantine.
R K Saxena
Dear Craig Carlton Dremann
It is very interesting (crucial) that survivor document from former Ragusa (Dubrovnik), 1377, July 27th. Thank you for let us to know it.
May be it could be interesting to let it wider known to write anything about it in this Monographic issue: https://www.revistamirabilia.com/ It is just a suggestion.
My best and most healthy regards!
UPDATED MAY 2, 2020 - Extrapolated numbers of total cases for next 2-3 weeks, with striking results anticipated for USA, Russia, and the World for new cases and deaths, on an Excel Spreadsheet.
--Worldwide on MAY 7 may produce 4 million total cases, mostly being contributed by the USA (36K/day), Russian (8K/day), Brazil (6.7K/day) and UK (6.2K/day), with additional contributions by Spain, Peru, India, Turkey, Italy, Canada, etc.
--USA by May 16, adding 500,000 new cases, for a total 1.5 million cases, is the projected curve.
--USA deaths curve is anticipating doubling to only by 124,000 by June 1, but that might be too optimistic? Because of the desire to stop the lock down in many states, including armed protesters invading the State legislature in Michigan, by mid-to-late May the curve may start an upward trend again?
--My Excel chart is open, so that anyone can download it, and will be able to update it periodically as I have. The key to how I am charting the future numbers, is based on the days for the numbers to double. I am saving this spreadsheet in a earlier Excel file format, of XLS, so no matter how old your program is, you can still open the spreadsheet and use it. My spreadsheet is also available under my "Projects" listing on my Researchgate page.
--Page 5 of the spreadsheet, is another look at the pandemic numbers--the relationship between the number of cases, and what each country spends annually on their military, to see if excessive spending on militaries, removes funds from countries when needed for pandemics, and cripples their ability to respond quickly, for example.
Lockdown means your can't find the pockets of virus transmission and then your resort to close down everything. This sweeping intervention is not practical and is not adoptable by the low income countries.
covid 19 is spreading at much faster rate in-spite of the lock down...no scientific solution so far
India is now at sixth position in number of corona infected persons and is expected to jump to fourth position within 5 day. Now lifting lockdown, with 0.25 million infected cases, is it not throwing country into "Herd Immunity"?
Lockdown is no way a solution to Covid-19, especially low income countries. Lockndown in low income countries are more disastrous for human welfare and economies since there is no help for small businesses nor are there unemployment benefits as we all have seen in some low income countries. Awareness and precautions are only solutions for this deadly virus rightnow.
The current top-11 "New Cases" countries...with the USA still at Number One, and interesting to see the groupings of two hot-spots--Brazil, Chile and Peru , plus, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh?
In order for India, Pakistan and Bangladesh to get the virus under control...they will need to all sign a permanent peace treaty, resolve ALL of the disputed border territory claims, dispose of their nuclear weapons, defund each of their militaries, and cancel any pending weapons and military contracts, so that they can use those funds to fight the Virus instead--RIGHT NOW!
And all of this MUST be done within the next two weeks!
OTHERWISE--my trend analysis for India is ONE MILLION cases by mid-July!
Then, by August 5- Bangladesh with 640,000 cases and Pakistan with 920,000 total cases. Unless the peace treaty is signed this month, all border disputes resolved, nuclear weapons disarmed, and all three militaries defunded and contracts cancelled--then the trends lines for these three countries, does not look good!
WORLD DAILY NEW CASES above...Anyone ever read, or know, or can speculate??---What is creating the saw-toothed weekly up and down pattern?--What are we doing RIGHT to make the lowest part of the curves, and what are we doing WRONG to create the peaks? Seems if we know what we are doing right, and stop doing the wrong part, we can end this pandemic sooner?
CHECK with your government health officials... and see what they have planned for you? Was just on a call in with my Federal Congressional Representative Jackie Spier and her medical advisers.
And, the USA Federal plan to end the pandemic IS NOT a vaccine...is NOT flattening the curve by take care of us better so we do not get sick in the first place--- the USA has given up, and hope that when "60%" of us get sick, that may slow the pandemic down???!!!!!
Today we are at over 2 million sick...so ONLY another 194 MILLION are expected to get sick, and at the 5.5% death rate for the USA, then only another 8,000,000 dead? Do we have enough coffins or body bags for that kind of massacre?
Best that everyone in each country on the planet...check with your health officials, to see what they have planned for you? Hopefully they have at least a body-bag ready for you?
The Government has given up and has become unconcerned but still making tall claims. It appears of no importance to them. They have made themselves busy in blaming others, in state elections and in other political activities. It appears now people have to depend on their luck and immunity system. "Survival of the fittest" will rule. Only the stronger ones with good immunity will survive and others will have to die.
It is now clear that lockdown alone is unable to contain COVID-19. In spite of 4 stages of lockdown, ban on national and international flights, suspension of train and road transport, India has crossed 1.1 million cases of Corona infection. And it is increasing every day. 21% of total cases and 16% of total deaths came only in the last week. Where it is leading to? The government is clueless and they have practically given up. India is in an unannounced Herd Immunity stage. The persons of high immunity will survive and others will have to die. Only fittest will survive.
R K Saxena
Outside of a few countries like China and New Zealand... the lockdowns have not been severe enough to stop the pandemic so far.
It requires ONLY a 3-week but very severe lockdown... like China, plus testing of millions of people, so that any infected persons can be isolated to stop the spread? Watch some of the videos on YouTube, the documentaries like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XU9FVqwO4TM "One Month in Wuhan" and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UNKr7ot5J8 "Life Under Lockdown"
However, the only way a country like the USA, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil or India... will have the funds to accomplish such a massive amount of testing, isolation, and severe lockdown, is if they defund their militaries, and use those funds for the health of the people.
Dear Craig Carlton Dremann
Yes, you are absolutely right. Here, the lockdown was just a joke. The result - over 40000 cases and nearly 700 deaths per day. And very likely number may reach 100 thousand in a couple of months.
R K Saxena
I did not realize what bad shape India is in right now... Unless you get a change in your government right away, to start taking care of the people, rather than funding your military and paying for nuclear and conventional weapons, you are at 1.1 MILLION cases today, and your daily number of cases are skyrocketing, so could have 2 million only by August 5. Then, maybe 4 million by August 20 and as many as 8 million by September 5?
PLEASE! Every country should try very hard, to NOT follow our very, very bad example here in the USA with COVID?....Revised my trends tonight, and tomorrow = 4 million cases! Then, it gets very exciting--- AUGUST 6 = 5 million. AUGUST 20 = 6 million. SEPTEMBER 6 = 7 million. SEPTEMBER 12 = 8 million. Then skip ahead to December 31, Happy New Year at 19 million cases?
People are habitual to defy rules. They feel proud to do so. Many think, I will not be affected so why should I worry? This goes on and become disastrous.
Possibly, lockdown is the most effective way to control transmission.
Lockdown is effective subject to condition that we behave properly. If discipline is maintained the infection rate is bound to reduce.
Please have a look at the following link:
Preprint The impact of social distancing and epicenter lockdown on th...
No doubt, lockdown could be effective in containing the COVID-19. Then why India could not control its spread?
The simple reason is that it was not backed by proper planning and preparation and its strict implementation. When China could do it, why we could not? It is a big question.
During one day lockdown on 22 March, there was a call for nation-wide clapping and Thali beating for 5 minutes, and again on 5 April there was a nation-wide call for lighting candles and Diyas for 9 minutes at your gate or balcony. Some people organized cow urine party in Delhi and some suggested cow dung treatment. One company launched fake Ayurveda medicine. All kind of gimmicks were tried. Political activities for toppling state governments were in full swing. There are such countless examples. Can we expect any positive outcome in such conditions. Cursing Nature and putting responsibility on others cannot be of any help. Let us see where it ends.
For the readers of your answers outside of India, could you explain the terms?
1.) Nation-wide clapping?
2.) Thali beating for 5 minutes?
3.) Nation-wide lighting of candles?
4.) Diyas for 9 minutes at your gate or balcony?
Was there ever, an nationwide requirement for everyone to wear a cloth mask when going out of their homes?
Craig Carlton Dremann,
It is very interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=li9YQ6HdmYQ https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-22/indians-clap-ring-bells-to-cheer-emergency-workers-during-coronavirus-lockdown
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/pm-modi-urges-people-to-light-candles-mobile-torches-for-nine-minutes-at-9-pm-on-april-5/article31244067.ece
Masks, gloves, social distancing, sanitization, etc., as you wish.
I think we are getting great results with lockdown. So, in my opinion, this is the best way to slow down Coronavirus outbreak. However, some people do not respect lockdown.
Nation-wide complete lockdown is controlling spreading COVID-19 to some extent.
INDIA according to the trend projection, 2 million cases by August 7, then 2.5 million cases by August 15?
Are the people of India going make their government change leaders... and put some leaders that can actually lead you out of the pandemic? You have a parliamentary form of government, so you can rather quickly change leadership with there is a lot of no confidence, instead of waiting 4 years like we do here in the USA?
And is India going to sign treaties with all of its neighbors... so everyone in the area can defund their militaries, finally resolve all of the border issues, so that those funds can be used to stop the pandemic?
That sentence should read...you can rather quickly change leadership when there is a VOTE of no confidence, instead of waiting 4 years like we do here in the USA?
The Oxfam chart is really stunning, about the politics involved with the pandemic.
Here in California, the "High Alert" threshold... that a county crosses, you get sent back to Lockdown, is 100 new cases per 100,000 population.
In my county of San Mateo, we have been bouncing between 25 and 70 cases from March 19 to June 21... then, all hell broke loose after that on July 12, for a high of 128 a week after the Fourth of July holiday.
The goal is less than 2 new cases per day, per 100,000 population... and we are a long ways away from that goal right now. The total confirmed and tested infected cases in my community right now, is one out of every 50 people!
If our County's bell-shaped curve... goes down at the same rate that it hit its peak a few weeks ago, then we should expect to take another 5-6 months to have the pandemic under some kind of control here with the current California-style "Lockdown-Lite" measures. Otherwise, a 3-4 week "Severe China-style" Lockdown may be necessary, to get it quickly under control.
https://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/optimistic-or-pessimistic-about-covid-19-no-need-to-choose/
In spite of all claims, India's corona infected persons crossed 2.3 million. The country is now inching ahead to overtake Brazil.
Russia claimed to have made vaccine and announced to manufacture it on large scale. The big question is: Is it reliable? Has it passed through all levels of tests? Or is it premature announcement?
Let us see. Till then do your best to stay safe.