Apparently, on the financial markets and in macroeconomic determinants of the economic situation in particular sectors and entire economies of developed countries, there are symptoms that suggest a high probability of economic slowdown from 2020 in individual countries and, consequently, in the entire global economy.
Therefore, I am asking you: Do you know the forecasts of the global economic development that would suggest a high probability of deceleration (or possibly acceleration) of economic growth from 2020 in individual countries and, consequently, in the entire global economy?
What are the symptoms of potential changes in the financial markets and / or the scope of macroeconomic determinants of the economic situation in particular sectors and entire economies?
If you know the results of prognostic research in this area, please send links to websites or scientific publications in which this type of prognostic issues are taken.
I wish you the best in New Year 2019.
Best wishes
Thank you very much Prof Milan B. Vemić for the interesting information.
-IMF keeps track of economic data of the world. each annual report also has some forecast with several years of horizon. See link below:
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending
-WORLD BANK also does its share of forecasting economic growth. World economic growth for 2019 - 2020 was forecast +4.7% - - - no crisis forthcoming.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
-OECD predicts 3.5% growth in 2020, more conservative estimate in comparison to the World Bank.
http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/
-ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK forecast 5.8% for Asia. No crisis in sight.
https://www.adb.org/publications/series/asian-development-outlook
I would like to add the November 2018 OECD Economic Outlook to the comprehensive answers already given above. The OECD Chief Economist, Laurence Boone, provides a coherent assessment of the situation and what policy makers should do in order to improve the outlook. The press conference material is here: http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/
I find it important to distinguish (as she does) between the business cycle slowdown (which is normal after a long recovery, output gaps around zero and low unemployment in most countries (except non-Germanic countries in Europe) and new risks to the foundations of economic growth and prosperity in past decades. In a nutshell my view is that the current uncertainty is coming from the unwillingness of the US under Trump to continue its role as the benevolent governor of the world. Unfortunately a weak and fragmented EU does not help in this respect.
I clearly align myself with Professor Milan Vimic's contribution but only to add that a major factor of concern is the wide spread of conflicts, violence and horror across the continents. This certainly is a major threat to world economic developmen. No doubt, the interna market and trade will be affected.
Heritage Foundation analyse every year and share an Index of Economic Freedom.
The data are a key answer to foresee the economic development of countries in the medium and long term:
https://www.heritage.org/index/ranking
You can download the complete report here:
https://www.heritage.org/index/download
Please see consensus forecasts. In my own view it (global growth slow down) will set in by the end of CY2019 rather than 2020.
For Germany (40% of the euro area) the ifo index foreshadows a slowdown (not yet a recession) already for mid 2019:
http://www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/facts/Survey-Results/Business-Climate/Geschaeftsklima-Archiv/2018/Geschaeftsklima-20181218.html
I need to be an expert in that area but now I am student for MSc in Economics at Mekelle University.
In the context of the above considerations, the following question is also current:
Will Big Data help in accurate forecasting of future economic and other processes?
What do you think about the possibility of forecasting economic processes based on the analysis of large data sets in Big Data database systems?
Will Big Data help in precisely forecasting future economic processes, including in terms of forecasting stock exchange trends on stock exchanges?
Will Big Data help in forecasting future, next financial, economic and other crises such as climate disasters, weather anomalies, earthquakes, etc.?
Please reply
Best wishes
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