your explanations must be considered for realistic earthquake predictions ; at the video from japan ground openings and closing events very close to shaking buildings (they are continue to slow shake movements after eartquake or during with seconder earthquakes ) their roots pressing soft soil type material and ground coverage such as asphalt or stone implants moving at line . But similar movements are occuring in the cracks of the open fields (cracks not always on faults because some of them surrounding coda waves related deformation zonations) subjects not well worked we are still searching for realistic analog models @

Dear Borys Kapochkin ,

Your approach is good (what is more important you did not say).

Dear Dursun Acar ,

Everyone writes this and that. I agree with what you wrote. But I have a question: why don't governments want to predict earthquakes? My sincere condolences to the Turkish people.

But it seems to be based on the principles I have discovered step by step since 2018, when I finished translating my article:

Article A szubdukció jelensége összeegyeztethetetlen a Föld felszíni...

to:

Presentation The phenomenon of subduction is incompatible with Earth's su...

The earthquake in Turkey could have been predicted... I did not predict, because I am a poor person, (200 USD monthly benefit for living)So I do not have the capabilities to make properly deterministic earthquake prediction...

Further it is worth looking at the following disclaimer, if you read it carefully you will find that before the event occurs it has been recorded that it will happen and where it will happen.

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Exists-the-next-situation-when-an-outsider-researcher-who-has-achieved-a-very-encouraging-result-in-earthquake-forecasting-is-not-supported

https://www.researchgate.net/post/How-do-You-see-the-Earthquakes-Prediction-Forecast-or-Random-events

Regards,

Laszlo

Without any data analise... Can be said: that in the next five days will happen minimum two earthquake M:+5.0 exist posibility the one of it be bigger than M:+5.5.

I recommend reading the discussion "Is it possible to see how rapidly the Earth's gravitational field is changing by looking at how clouds move (with their help and without GRACE)?" and my patent for the method of detecting changes in the gravitational field (Ukrainian patent No. 63796 dated 10/25/2011 "Method of detecting changes in the Earth's gravitational field"). Attached video from open sources. The video refers to my article Changes in an Environment Before the Greek Earthquake (14.08.03)." 5th International Symposium on Eastern Mediterranean Geology. Thessaloniki, Greece, 2004, pp. 587-590.

Anyone looking for a logical explanation for the phenomenon of gravity is likely to know exactly what is happening:

Article Tényekkel igazolható a gravitáció valós oka

Article Gravity a paradym shift in reasoning

And he knows how to predict earthquakes. What's the hardest thing about predicting earthquakes? He also knows that in Iran, they certainly can't predict earthquakes. This is also the case in Romania.

I will not ask questions now, because in many cases, they can be very valuable... While a bricklayer's helper has more daily income than a person who is able to predict earthquakes. like myself, until then this is the situation.

Regards,

Laszlo

Dear Laszio and Borys totaly i agree with you /

your works related directly to forces on tectonic break events. Some of scientist have wrong upper class behaviour as not considering gravity because human history saying similar for eartquakes which are just after solar or moon eclipse . ( If public say it is not science as their point of view )

another important item as yours

Scientist from Italy Franco italiano considering stress and humid cool seasons making vapour at limestone formations before eartquakes

all of tips such as gravitational - heat - creep deformations - waves at radio frequency by piezoelectric or electron discharges - animal stress -well temperature or chemicals important as you know . but we have not enough depth data , human eye or machine sensor can see only approximate and it can be misleading for deep underground. we need to more work for deep crust and subduction area

As you knowing governments planning wars at the world but we know that little piece of nuclear war enough to kill all livings. Even everybody weak and not strong as a result of we poisoned earth and choke the oceans and animals with microplastics. i am suspicious how long humanity will live. money race ignorence at education...... all around the earth in reality teachers of science based Kemal Ataturk' s republic of TURKEY teaching to childrens at 1980 s evrey 500 hundred year big eartquake hitting to south east anatolia and time coming. they restricting the heigth of buildings. Cultural productions effecting everybody and result high damage. And few week ago before eartquake some of people understand about something close on dead sea fault zone. Dear Laszio you are rigth all humanity close to great famine even now but after war i hope innocent creatures can stay alive. we need to continue to science with health precautions. I think Farming science and modern life will be at the same time , if we find unpoisoned soils

please do not lose your hopes i am happy to meet with you and Borys (I will share some ideas with both of you)

Dursun

Everything is much simpler than Dursun Acar thinks. There are quite a few energy sources that increase the amplitude of tidal deformation waves in the solid body of the Earth. The syzygy of the tide can fall into the phase of compression of tidal waves in the lithosphere, as it was on February 6, 2023. This process increased the planetary contraction by about 20%. This "helped" the deformation to break the consolidated crust at the epicenter. But we see deformations earlier - February 3, 2023. Geodeformations are not intensified on this day by syzygy. That is, the beginning of the process does not coincide with the syzygy. The cause of the earthquake is deformation, not syzygy. I will give an example of the earthquake in Turkey on August 17, 1999. Deformations in the stretching phase, which occur every 7 days, anomalously manifested themselves on August 11-13 and 19-21, 1999. (Graph attached. The date of the earthquake in Turkey is shown in red, and the number of breaks in the pipeline network in the city of Odesa is shown in green. The earthquake occurred during the compression phase - August 17, 1999). ) Geodeformations manifested planetary. The onset of deformations in the stretching phase was provoked by the syzygy on August 11. This is the date of the total solar eclipse. Attached the trajectory of the solar eclipse (map from the Internet). During the stretch phase, earthquakes are not generated. At this time, energy is released in the form of heat. Attached heat release maps. shows maps of infrared (thermal) radiation near the epicenter of the catastrophic earthquake in Turkey on August 17, 1999. Extreme thermal anomalies (shown in red). Thermal anomalies localized (anomaly area 15 thousand km2) were also recorded twice on August 12 and 20, 1999. This also happened during the phase of stretching of the earth's crust before and after the earthquake. But it should be noted that destructive geodeformations, unlike thermal anomalies, are manifested not locally, but regionally. (The source of information is the book "Satellite methods of studying earthquakes"). Ie syzygy is not only an astronomical phenomenon. This is an energy factor - an increase in the amplitude of geodeformations.

On February 6, syzygy increased the amplitude of deformations in the compression phase, and on August 17, in the extension phase. But these are processes on a planetary scale. The location of the earthquake is unknown. Deformation of any amplitude does not generate earthquakes unless the waveguide is blocked. The places of waveguide blocking are manifested by the release of fluids (heat, gases) from the lithosphere. There is enough energy to "illuminate" the ionosphere, to generate physical fields that animals "feel" and for many other physical effects that may or may not occur.

The process of transition of wave energy into thermal and other energy makes it possible to map the zones of blocking of wave nature deformations. Compare the negative atmospheric pressure anomaly (blue color) with the destructive deformation anomaly (map attached INTERNET). They match. Agree that we have moved from the planetary level to the "municipal" one. This is very important, since information appears not only about the time, but also about the coordinates of the earthquake epicenter. The amount of population that needs to be evacuated is optimized.

Dear Dursun ( Dursun Acar ) and Borys ( Borys Kapochkin ),

Both of you have written very good posts.

Borys, the current description is much better than the previous one... Although you have instruments, the essence is missing, which is present in the case of Vyacheslav Nagorny. I developed my idea about earthquake predictions in just 5 years... I did nothing on purpose to live in better conditions, to get inspiration easily... I received inspiration in several steps.

You use instruments in vain, you do not fully understand the logic of nature, so I still see that you cannot make a good earthquake forecast, although you see many things very well!

I probably solved the issue... The earthquake in Turkey gave me exactly the inspiration I needed... You spoke calmly, because that's why you get the money... I got nothing for all the work I did outside of my working hours .

I expect at least that, even though I am a poor outsider, I am not an academic, that if someone needs help, they should ask for it...

As an earthquake forecaster, you don't have to walk in the past, but in the future, true to see the future, you must look back in the past [you must know the past to know the future, without the past there is no future ]

Regards,

Laszlo

Dear László Attila Horváth.

There is no money to be made in human misery. I did not consider it acceptable to sell licenses for my own patented earthquake forecasting technologies, although they were successfully implemented at the state level in the Russian Federation. Now, too, I have proposed that Ukraine transfer the contents of its own patents for short-term earthquake forecasting to the Turkish government for free.

I believe you will agree with me that earthquake warnings are not a business.

Sincerely, Borуs Kapochkin.

Dear Borys Kapochkin ,

I have no patents, so I have nothing to sell.

Repeat: 'I expect at least that, even though I am a poor outsider, I am not an academic (who is paid state) , that if someone needs help, they should ask for it... The problem is, if I tell you what I know, it's not the people who are suffering who benefit. I am poor I am poor in need of help but no one helps!

Majd lesz egy meglepetésem,

I'll have a surprise,

Regards,

Laszlo

P.S: From what you have said so far, I don't see that the problem will be solved for sure!

Dear Borys and Laszio governments must open all facilities to you everytime such as accommadation travel and daily expenses

If you want i can speak with geophysical department \

our problem in Turkey and other countries not eartquake prediction \ their living styles . if people harming to nature with together economic cartels i dont want to help them but we are human you can start to help from Turkey but europe also under same risk and difficult to predict exact place where the earthquake will occur.

if seismically suspicious region under the syzygy then you can help to evacuation of technically bad houses %80 ok but tectonic plates always make a surprise about quake far from syzygy then everybody can be blind to see your scientific efforts / first of all we must explain wrong - fatal and harmful living theirself style / they can accord to precise timing of quake prediction with harmful life style whatever your scientific works very important / i will contrubute to interdiciplinary session Geology and education of people at 75. Geology meeting at Ankara , Turkiye . I will introduce your names and works to scientific society . Please be careful because governments figthing and if some one helping to one government other government can kill the person who helping . mean of Education of people is education of governments

Dear Dursun Acar.

I am encouraged by your concern in providing the people of Turkey with information about the strength, location and time of the next devastating earthquake. On March 2, Ukraine submitted to the Turkish government an offer of assistance in creating a regional measurement network for the implementation of my technologies for determining the strength of the place and time of the next dangerous earthquake. I am awaiting an official decision.

In the future, I can give lectures on the theoretical aspects of my technology. I will transfer the technology in which measurements and mathematical analysis are described step by step. I will hand over copies of official documents on the successful results of the work on the implementation of my technologies in various earthquake-prone areas of the World.

But I have to get a positive decision on the official proposal, which is submitted by the government of Ukraine to the government of Turkey. Without this decision, no action will have a practical continuation in your territory. It will be a useless waste of time.

I hope for your understanding of the situation.

Borуs Kapochkin.

Dear Joseph A. Sprute.

I carefully read your texts. Please excuse me for being direct. I do not catch the meaning and logic in your texts. But I know for sure that your texts are not related to the topic of discussion. My colleagues have the same opinion.

Can I assume that the texts are written by an automaton (robot)?

I have no intention of offending you.

I am very sorry.

Boris Kapochkin.

Dear Dursun ( Dursun Acar ).

Thank you for your kind reply, and your offer... Your offer is acceptable to me...

I don't have time to answer it now...I will reply soon

Refgards,

Laszlo

I am not part of any organization, I am independent

Dear All,

Here is an earthquake forecast made here in this discussion:

'Without any data analise... Can be said: that in the next five days will happen minimum two earthquake M:+5.0 exist possibility the one of it be bigger than M:+5.5.'

Anyone can determine the value of the forecast. And form an opinion on how it was.

I will point out that the magnitude was overestimated. Another error is in the wording of the forecast: 'will happen'

And there was another mistake: human inattention, omission: the fourth is you who are here to participate in the discussion: because you have not indicated how this earthquake forecast, and you are both very well qualified and trained professionals. Big words everyone is throwing around... but when it comes to action, everyone's distracted.

I listed the mistakes in vain, the earthquake forecast was good... With more attention, the above errors might not be repeated.

Regards,

Laszlo

László Attila Horváth

Did you mix up the discussions? In the discussion "Earthquake engineering and the structural seismic resistance" you asked me:

Today I analyzed the earthquake forecast made six days earlier in your discussion

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Devastating_earthquake_in_Turkey_Influence_of_aseismic_geodeformations_on_the_collapse_of_buildings_without_seismic_shocks_How_does_this_happen/1

because of the fourth point: I now invite you to clarify your argument:

you wrote: 'These are waves with periods of 12, 24 hours and 14 days.'

the: 'The first destructive earthquake occurred at 01:17 (M=7.8), the second at 10:24 (M=6.7). At this time, at the earthquake epicenter, the amplitude of the diurnal and semidiurnal tides in the solid body of the Earth reached positive extremes.'

the two sentences are not in harmony!

Perhaps other comments should be made, but the example just mentioned is very noticeable.

Regards,

Laszlo

My answer: Thank you and attention to my texts. It is important to understand that these are not predictions, this is a diagnosis. Forecasts precede processes, and I have analyzed what has already happened...

Answer to your question: February 6, 2023 solid earth tides (sectorial+tesseral tides) amplitude extreme values 06 UTC min (-13 cm), 10 UTC max (0 cm), 16 UTC min (-14 cm), 22 max ( 22 cm).

Dear Borys Kapochkin ,

Thanks for your reply. Thank you for the data!

From it, it is clear that you have something to work with. This shows something else you write about, and you know exactly what I mean.

'These are waves with periods of 12, 24 hours and 14 days. '

'06 UTC min (-13 cm), 10 UTC max (0 cm), 16 UTC min (-14 cm), 22 max ( 22 cm).'[this should have been extended either the day before or the day after]

You have another value of max around pm.10 05.02.2023. or 07.02.2023 which does not correspond to 24 (12) hours, as the period is about 2-5% different.. This 2-5 % is not a negligible factor.

Regards,

Laszlo

László Attila Horváth

I wrote about extreme tidal heights on the day of two earthquakes with a magnitude of more than seven. There is no error here? There are 10 hours between minimums and 12 hours between maxima. Did I count correctly? Extremes may not coincide with the median. Am I right?

If I'm wrong, show the results of your calculations.

Dear Boris,

I know what you are writing about, I also know roughly 'what is happening'

I had an algorithm to determine the tidal effects on Mercury, Venus and the Moon tides. I did not count the Sun's tide. The results are in the paper mentioned above (2009):

Article Tényekkel igazolható a gravitáció valós oka

[The publisher did a bad job of not counting the pages... And he was paid for it it is around the: 10, 11 pg.]

but it is inaccurate in case of Earth to my current knowledge. At that moment I had the thought why they might be useful... But the algorithm is probably lost because the computer is broken.

It could always be redone if it made sense. I deliberately didn't include it in that paper... I was waiting for someone to ask... You did, and unfortunately I don't have it...

Regards,

Laszlo

Dear Borys and Laszio both of your work very important and increases approximate accuracy with a few other factors. You must work together Earthquakes sometimes on peak sometimes lowest and between them of gravity oscillations possible and horizontal and vertical tectonics also selective at time of broken or rebroken regions (with oblique and lithological - hinge points of block complications ) people living in wrecked houses for strong eartquakes whole around the world (not Japan)

Dear Dursun Akar.

From your text, I understand that you underestimate the level of technology that Ukraine intends to transfer to the people of Turkey for free. You probably think that this is the result of creative inspiration (how to write poetry or music)?

Technologies for short-term earthquake forecasting were developed as a result of the successful implementation of scientific projects in the southern region of Ukraine. About 0.5 million US dollars were spent on these works. During the implementation of the second project, the seismological service alert about the time of the catastrophic earthquake that occurred in Romania on August 31, 1986 was successfully predicted and implemented.

In 1990 verified the short-term earthquake forecast technology for the Caucasus region. About 4.7 million US dollars were spent on the works.

In 1990 started work on forecasting earthquakes for the Pacific region. The cost of the completed works is approximately 10 million US dollars.

Significant financial resources were spent on the design, manufacture and testing of the measuring instrument complex.

I must say about the fundamental research on the physics of earthquakes, carried out by me in collaboration with scientists who, in the period from 1995 to 2014, financed scientific research with personal money.

My colleagues and I managed to obtain scientific results of a fundamental nature, which were positively evaluated on February 28, 2012 by the Presidium of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The results of scientific research are published in the monographs: "Fundamentals of neogeodynamics", "Geodynamics, the basics of kinematic geodesy", "Geodynamics, the basics of dynamic geodesy", "Destructive properties of geodeformations", the textbook "Geodeformations, their impact on engineering structures". In Germany, the final monograph "Change of the paradigm of modern geodynamics and seismotectonics" was published.

Thanks to our the technology (Ukrainian patent No. 46556 dated 05.15.2002 ), it became possible to record the activation of powerful geodeformations, which, among other things, became the cause of a catastrophic earthquake in Turkey on August 17, 1999. Graph I showed. My colleagues and I made a report about this case and our earthquake prediction technologies at the plenary session of the World Forum "Natural Catastrophes and Global Problems of Modern Civilization" - GEOCATACLYSM-2011", which was held on September 19-21, 2011 in Turkey (in one of the most prestigious congress centers "Lütfi Kydar" in Istanbul).

Dear Borys i was there at the meeting Geocataclysm 2011 your subject is best topic of the meeting . i know your subject one of most reliable.

one day ago urgent session opened at 75. geological meeting of Turkiye

focused to 06 feb 2023 eartquakes you can join if you want i can present for your name if difficult to come to city of ANKARA at april

problem is if you give a gurantee for prediction then people never reconstruct or change houses . you can take big responsibility not only big eartquakes even middle scale eartquakes enough for provide wrecked houses and kills millions at total

you must say the importance of state of houses together with your works to people \ i know your works can catch %70 of earthquakes and its very big succesful ratio ' you can work at Turkey its very important for us and i hope.

you knowing some hoses collapsing without eartquake at Europe and Turkey.

Before catastrophy houses must detached by human and rebuild with new ligth construction style as most horizontal building understandings. Died humans at the other side and earthquake pollution at earth at the other side. wrecked house and corps remnants collecting at the agricultural areas

it is very difficult situation. but of course your science will helps to decrease of bad situations i will send meeting information about meeting

Dear Borys and Laszio you can send e mail with your abstracts if you want to join to urgent special session about 06 feb 2023 earthquakes [email protected] is head of chair

session will be at last day (14 april) of general meeting

i can present for your names if difficult to come to meeting for you

and abstract sample i will add

i added the abstract format (until to wednesday pm 12 of this week)

and you can sent to mail of head of chair Prof. Erdin Bozkurt wıth request of we want to help with our works to special session

and meetıng site may be only Turkish language

https://eski.jmo.org.tr/etkinlikler/kurultay/

regards

Dursun

Dear Dear Dursun Akar.

I have read your proposal.

When the technology is created, the work of scientists is over. My work as a scientist is also over. This is a general rule. But the work of engineers begins to install measuring equipment, to mathematically process measurement data and turn data into information, to transfer the information received to municipal authorities and the population in real time.

When and where this work will start does not depend on your university. You understand me, such rules. Everything depends on the Turkish government.

Sincerely, Borуs Kapochkin.

i hope they (governments) will listen scientist and nature. they have no way.

they can inform something from scientist for this reason i will inform your works with other scientist (as keep your rigths and past efforts for future) may be Tubitak (governmental science association)

regards

Dursun

Dear Dursun Acar.

I read your texts carefully. I must inform you that in 1998, that is, before the earthquake on August 17, 1999, we officially approached Tubitak, but the answer was negative.

In addition, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that your assessment of the quality of earthquake forecasts based on my technology has no basis. My technology does not use a statistical scientific approach, but relies on a deterministic scientific approach. These are fundamentally different things. You understand me, Newton's second law is deterministic, not statistical, that is, it always works, not with a probability of 99%.

Sincerely, Borуs Kapochkin.

Dear Dursun Dursun Acar ,

Thank you for the invitation, I have no materials for this purpose, as I was busy with the graviton article for more than a year... The article: Tényekkel igazolható a gravitáció valós oka (2009)

[Facts prove the real cause of gravity -has Engish translation, but it is not prepared.] This article has been advanced a bit in the concept of the current graviton article.... But it is not finished, it has another purpose... Even though it will be ready later, many important things will be left out because there is no possibility to test it...

I do not know whether this is being considered in practice.

I am thinking of going to Ankara because there are things that are urgently relevant, It was formulated a few days ago, intuitively.

Professionally, you and Borys ( Borys Kapochkin ) are better prepared than me. Borys how can you prove what you wrote last time? For example with an Earthquake prediction... So far I have only seen Vyacheslav Nagorny's earthquake forecast before the event... I spoke to him several times privately, he said some pretty good things... You must know him.

Regards,

Laszlo

Dear Laszio

sometimes humans getting tired and self hopes collapsing

at the other side science used by weapon and still continue.

scientist if has an important something , must be careful. some organizations gives a many and kill same person or stopping at the beginning.

in time politicians will listen more scientist and scientist organisations will integrate to governments it will provide easy humanitic platform between countries . Borys you and me we are good persons

at 1999 eartquake we found possibility of scientist based government system and quickly collapsed i am thinking know if we sucsess we can die quickly please remember north natural gas pipe explotion it is loss of all humanity or war between UKR - RUS some systems never think about nature and future waiting occurances such as protocols between countries is the best ., needs of nature s what and its understanding by whole countries best waiting with sad events but

please keep your hopes ( occurances take time )

regards

Dursun

Dear Borys i saw your last reply , i think i look fast and i didnt see your reply sorry for late unswer

exactly your method ok and i have no doubt, i mean with consideration of around fault complex or crossed tectonic blocks they are more difficult than simple fault zone

for warn people we must consider whole borders of tectonic blocks for this reason some earthquakes can occurs far than syzgy but related to syzgy area

i am fearing for people continue at living weak houses with only relying on earthquake forecasts ( primer mission must be on robust house reconstruction (friendly with nature)) at the same time your method should be implemented to seismology or all other earth science disciplines

regards

Dursun

Dear Dursun Acar.

You brought up the topic of tectonic faults. In Ukraine, for the first time in the world, the "CORRECT" theory of tectonic faults arose. Its author is a well-known Ukrainian scientist, a member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Konstantin Tyapkin. Unfortunately, he has already died. But I built a diagram of tectonic blocks of the epicentral zone especially for you. It will be unusual for you. But the new always meets resistance. My teacher Georgy Tkachenko guessed about this theory 50 years ago. He was the head of the international geological organization "Interoceanmetal" (office in Poland).

Sincerely, Boris Kapochkin.

Dear Borys Borys Kapochkin ,

Your recent attached diagram of tectonic blocks of the epicentral zone yes it is unusual ... in this form only the person who made it knows what it represents.

The meaning of a colour is not indicated... Probable they may be related to seismic depths all around. this is a mathematical geometric approach tectonic blocks... If what I have in mind can provide a mathematical description for determining magnitude, but that doesn't mean it's good for what Dursun Acar wrote, wisely: 'for warn people we must consider whole borders of tectonic blocks for this reason some earthquakes can occurs far than syzgy but related to syzgy area

i am fearing for people continue at living weak houses with only relying on earthquake forecasts ( primer mission must be on robust house reconstruction (friendly with nature)) at the same time your method should be implemented to seismology or all other earth science disciplines'

I looked again at the three pictures you attached to the wording of the discussion:

an irrelevant, unusable, another is eronous interpreted,

I would really like to read your paper, which describes a 99% more accurate forecast... Because, based on my own knowledge, either what you claim is not true, or you really do know it, but that's not what you write. Vacheslav Nagorny did the same thing (see my writing) I can honestly say that my writing did not mention many important things... The arguments I listed were sufficient to point out the reality of the situation. I think that is the case with you.

Regards, Laszlo

Dear László Attila Horváth.

I have read your text. This is not the first time you have written this to me. I sincerely sympathize with you.

Now about the scheme of block divisibility of the lithosphere.

I beg your pardon, but the attached diagram is not for amateurs. It may be important only to specialists. I do not hide the name of the author of the theory of structure formation of the solid shell of the Earth. I can't make people smarter by violent means... Read the original source. You may find it useful to follow the discussion "What theories explain the occurrence of geological structures?".

From the profile of Dursun Acar - Skills and expertise:

Tectonics, Structural Geology. The scheme is addressed to him.

Sincerely, Boris Kapochkin.

Dear Borys Borys Kapochkin ,

Thank you for the response.

Regards,

Laszlo

Dear Borys and Laszio i hope we can find discussion together at the same conference or meeting our discussion very important because gravity faults and tectonic faults interferencing even later tectonic faults seismicity swiching gravitational seismicity when orbital forces increase or decrease. Gravitational faults Non seismic but later shallow seismicity and regional tectonic acception possible by close tectonic region (some papers on the digital platform) i think we need to focus increasing temperature . heat radiation intensity and their atmospheric levels with the earthquakes and related classsification can give more precise timing for quake estimation or forecast

Dursun

Dear Dursun, ( Dursun Acar ), in connection to your previus post you read the next work of Serguei Bychkov it was send by Academia today evening:

https://www.academia.edu/98589032/Earthquake_Processes_Theses?email_work_card=title

Only the first three thesis I have read:

'1. Earthquakes are always unpredictable, which is due to the sudden formation of energy in the zone of its focus within a short period of time.' '[This is the whole point of earthquake forecasting... but this thesis is wrong, because big earthquakes don't develop all of a sudden, they have a development phase... The exception to this is in Indonesia and the southern Philippines, and the surrounding area]

'2. The energy of earthquakes is not the elastic energy of deformations of rocks, but the energy of electrons released by them at the moment of jumping from one orbit to another, according to the postulates of Niels Bohr [1].'[correct, But: This is the another important point of earthquake forecasting... but this thesis is wrong, because big earthquakes don't develop all of a sudden, they have a 'long development phase', only their manifestation seems happen suddenly... The exception to this is in Indonesia and the southern Philippines, and the surrounding area.

In Turkey, there must have been a sign of seismic preparation... In the current case, it should be known where there is an accumulated seismic source that can be released at a favorable moment: I currently consider three places dangerous: Western Cyprus, North of Ankara, and Central Iran (these are just mental ideas based on EMSC seismic data... In each case, there must be a physical sign if my mental vision is correct - This is related to what you just wrote:

'(...)our discussion very important because gravity faults and tectonic faults interferencing even later tectonic faults seismicity swiching gravitational seismicity when orbital forces increase or decrease. Gravitational faults Non seismic but later shallow seismicity and regional tectonic acception possible by close tectonic region (some papers on the digital platform) i think we need to focus increasing temperature . heat radiation intensity and their atmospheric levels with the earthquakes and related classsification can give more precise timing for quake estimation or forecast')]

'3. There is no accumulation of the energy of elastic deformations of rocks in the Earth's crust and mantle. This myth of the adherents of the Reid Elastic Recoil Theory [2] grossly contradicts the fundamental principle of the Minimum of any system. Otherwise in billions of years some system could accumulate so much energy that it would be enough to destroy the globe. But the globe is still spinning around its axis!' [I would not argue with that]

So, Dursu, what you wrote in your last three comments, I think they are very good, keep them in mind.

Regards,

Laszlo

Dear Laszio i think you have high mechanic and technic knowledge

Since your childish days you interested (even when you child) interested mechanic electronic and other technics

Big quakes will start but most of all we must discover methods on human relaionships to explain importance of science and nonmemorise based education style people under wrong education and wrong lifestyle

As words of native american leaders we lost nature and health of everything

We have not enough sensors at the field. Genarally scince world taking prenames such as prof. and everybody forgetting to work more for nature (at wide perspective nature mean is future self personal benefits ) but people focused narrow slit money , selfish kingdom etc

science world at same situation because they come for a life money power infected life by hand of great economic powers (they are top of the ignorence stairs)

We will understand later of science works (scientist not succesful yet global work connections) for this reason

Very early to say something before whole sensor application about estimation possible or not on earthquakes personel efforts of few scientist not enough because we did not make inventions on relationships (scientist - politicians etc) and you are angry about this situation as me and Borys.

your estimations ok but even if we estimate rigth 10 or more sequantal earthquke people never governing with science we must provide that public estimate theirself earthquakes. But public watching idiot movie series . they are waiting at wrecked houses for eavacuation just before earthquakes by help of scientist because their politicians educating with wrongs.

such as we are your only friends for correction of this situation i will keep your suggestions. i hope we will success before or later of uneducated globe's total collaps

Dear Dursun, ( Dursun Acar ),

Thank you for the recognition (i' think you have high mechanic and technic knowledge') I cannot accept this... because these areas, together with hydrogeology, are not exactly areas that I feel a little bit knowledgeable about...

'Big quakes will start but most of all we must discover methods on human relaionships to explain importance of science and nonmemorise based education style people under wrong education and wrong lifestyle'- This would be absolutely true if society were properly stratified. If we look at our societies today, they are often wilder than an animal community... This is described in more detail in my philosophy book: AZ ESZME 1995.

(This book led me to no longer practise my profession)

You are right. But we have to accept things as they are. Turkey has a great potential for creating earthquake prediction because it has China. It can be referred to: Institute of Earthquake Forecasting (IEF)

https://www.ief.ac.cn/Brief/

Presumably I have a tiny bit of clairvoyance, which has helped me to predict more earthquakes and understand earthquakes in other ways. But all these should be tested, because repetition is the mother of knowledge.

Regards,

Laszlo

Dear Laszio and Borys

i will try to find your personal e mails for share something such as gmail or hotmail or etc....

regards

Dursun

because i think you remembering at the past italian scientist (geophysic department mostly) they gone to court of justice for reason from people' s idea why you did nt predict eartquake before exist 2009 L'Aquila

i laugh at that year but similar it will be occur at the future with devoloping science

Among natural disasters in the first place in terms of the number of people killed are floods, in the second place are tropical cyclones, in the third place are droughts, in the fourth place are earthquakes. Even before the tsunami, which only happens a few times a year, people are evacuated. What is so different about earthquakes?

Dear Borys

i think we can keep the whole livings of the nature from dynamics of crust surface such as water air mass displacement and total extinction very difficult. Severe extinction occured at the past geological times ,which ones more related interior of earth or for learn effects of internals and how is the strength or weakness during events. Other species provided evolution of humans so humans must keep their continuity as a responsibility (firstly our respect to nature is important because number of victims during catastrophic events can decrease with education )

On April 24, 2023, 3.5 days after the solar eclipse on April 20, 2023, an earthquake was recorded approximately in the zone of its gravitational maximum (map attached https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SE2023Apr20H.png?uselang=ru)

Magnitude Mw 7.1

Region KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

Date time 2023-04-24 00:41:56.5 UTC

Location 29.92 S ; 177.80W

Depth 40 km

Something similar happened in 1999 (catastrophic earthquake) after a solar eclipse over Turkey in 1999.

My quote from this discussion:

"I will give an example of the earthquake in Turkey on August 17, 1999. Deformations in the stretching phase, which occur every 7 days, anomalously manifested themselves on August 11-13 and 19-21, 1999. (Graph attached. The date of the earthquake in Turkey is shown in red, and the number of breaks in the pipeline network in the city of Odesa is shown in green. of deformations in the stretching phase was provoked by the syzygy on August 11. This is the date of the total solar eclipse. Attached the trajectory of the solar eclipse (map from the Internet)."

Very important data "Preliminary Results of the Great Kahramanmaraş 06 February 2023 Earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and 7.6) and 20 Feburary 2023 Antakya Earthquake (Mw 6.4), Eastern Türkiye TJES"

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/372343981_Preliminary_Results_of_the_Great_Kahramanmaras_06_February_2023_Earthquakes_Mw_77_and_76_and_20_Feburary_2023_Antakya_Earthquake_Mw_64_Eastern_Turkiye_TJES