I'm currently working on ecophysiology of tea ecosystem, in that we are trying to understand the correlation and the impact of climate in crop productivity changes using 20 years meteorological data of the study site using R statistics of VAR package. In order to assess the impact of climate to the 2050 or 2100 scenario I wanted to do Ricardian analysis. I have meteorological, yield and revenue data, kindly give your ideas/comments/ to do the analysis and ideas regarding spatial analysis.
The Ricardian Analysis only makes sense in large geographical settings. An entire country for instance can be modeled if sufficient climate variation is observed throughout the landscape. A study that is limited to a study site only carries the risk of producing nonsensical results. You can see the sri lankan study by kurukulasuriya. It only models one month of temperature which does not necessarily represent the annual temperature regime of the country.
@ Ahmad
thanks for your commends, we trying to study the three tee growing regions this came under three grids and three different geographic locations. we tring to project the same in spatial models in the we should know the coefficient values that will be used in projection models. I understand the the risk of site specific models however statistical downscalling will help to creat a region specific model upto 24km.
If possible i wll try to get Mr. Kurukulasuriya, in this regards
Dear Edwin:
It happens that we are working on a web page that allows to generate statistical downscalled forecasts for specific regions from 20 GCM models, Your 20 years database regarding precipitation and temperature for meteorological stations in your specific areas of research should fit the model's requierements.
Also I am very interested in your outcomes. Do you think that an ecophysiological approach would be possible besides the statistical one?
Best wishes,
Nicolas
Chile
@Nicolas, thanks for your commends
Can you please suggest me, what kind of models could be opt for ecophysiological studies.
Edwin:
At Chile we are working with Cropsyst (http://www.bsyse.wsu.edu/CS_Suite/CropSyst/index.html) from Washington State University. It is no enterely ecophysiological but it has a very good mechanistical approach. We are modelling main chilean crops such as vineyards, and other orchards. I do not know if the models counts with any information regarding Tea production, but you could check it and maybe "feed" the model with your personal expertise.
Our idea is to model chilean crops with historical meteorological data and then use future forecasts as I mentioned above, to assess yield changes and different irrigation strategies regarding Climate Change.
Cheers!
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