Dear Dr. Francioni,

your invitation to a discussion on climate change, land use und eco systems is very ambitious and sounds like the square of the circle. There are many approaches the majority of which in climatology, soil sciences often combined with social sciences that have the potential of another "1000+x thread".

Sorry for my blunt assessment. As a geoscientist I worked also in ecology, soil sciences and climate-geomorphology and as village-boy I know what agriculature looks like and is all about. I can only recommend you to make a complex system simple and curtail it so as to avoid a rambling around in this Q & A system. It seems to be more efficaceous.

With kind regards

H.G.Dill

Hope to learn from you

TerraSet platform provides landscape ecosystem modelling with ecosystem services and other environmental factors.

Dear Harald G. Dill

thanks for sharing your opinion. I really appreciate it. I started this discussion just to collect ideas that in some months will be condensed into a project proposal ( a task within a working package or something like that, not a pillar of the project). Actually, I've already found some papers that try to use different ecosystem services as output in scenarios, using different models, not just one as you mentioned. So, my aim is just to gather further experiences and opinions

What I am looking for is not a super accurate model that includes of kind of ecosystem services, but a representation (even a very approximate one) that allows comparing contrasting systems. Thus, relatively simple indicators such as plant-biodiversity or soil carbon stock would be fine as the ultimate goal would be to generate scenarios for discussion with farmers and other stakeholders.

I think so Terrset platform is useful for you(REDD part). In the case of other model, the first item to choose a model for your work is related to land use prediction. it uses some ML method or statistical approach to do it. I think it is difficult for you. the second item refers to the clime change process. You need an IPCC document or spreadsheet to do it.

REDD in terret does both of them.

Matteo,

You've presented a very relevant and timely challenge. Why? Because if we cease to produce any anthropogenic CO2 moving forward, we would still have to manage the significant excess of CO2 humans loaded into the atmosphere since 1950. Regenerative agriculture practices offer the potential to permanently sequester excess atmospheric CO2 into the soil. Please check out these basic sources to help launch your inquiry: Article Impacts of soil carbon sequestration on life cycle greenhous...

https://kisstheground.com/

https://www.jae-online.org/attachments/article/2281/61-1-1.pdf

We carried out an exercise modelling the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services provided by plants. We found that ecosystem services such as Food for animals, Material and Medicinal plants, show a high range of changes that includes both positive and negative outcomes, while for Food for humans the responses are mostly substantially negative. This is the publication: Article Ecosystem services show variable responses to future climate...

Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) models have been widely applied to map and quantify ecosystem services and their changes. InVEST is a spatially explicit tool including a suite of open-source software models.

https://naturalcapitalproject.stanford.edu/software/invest

Climate Change and Water resources. This paper, tries to answer the following question: is it possible to predict Water Resources only with GCMs, without downscaling, and what would be the resulting uncertainties? Besbes M., Chahed J. "Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia", Published online: 12 June 2023, Les Comptes Rendus. Géoscience. Available on: Article Predictability of water resources with global climate models...

This research [1] represents a valuable contribution toward Food Security from a sustainable agriculture perspective. One may read within the conclusion: "The development of the society should be done in such a way that it helps to protect our environment and also helps us to development it. The environmental biotechnology has a role to play in the removal of the pollutants. Also biotransformation makes possibility of producing many useful industrial enzymes and product without causing any hazardous to the natural environment. In this way microbes and biotechnology go side by side to benefits the man kinds".

[1] Sonia Kumari, A.K Jha, Rakesh Kumar and Rajni Kant (2018), Role of Microbial Biotechnology in Sustainable Agricultural and Environment, Chem Sci Rev Lett 2018, 6 (21), 88-93

Article Role of Microbial Biotechnology in Sustainable Agricultural ...

Iceland volcano erupts on Reykjanes peninsula (BBC, 4 hours ago). Volcanic eruptions, always Fascinating in Beauty and Majesty, remind us in a spectacular way of essential factors in the heat balance of the globe: the transfers at the Visible Lithosphere-Atmosphere Interface in the form of Seismic and Volcanic Activities and the transfers at the Lithosphere-Hydrosphere interface, Invisible because they occur at the bottom of the oceans. Unlike the GHE, the effects of these activities on Climate Change are not well analyzed, at least in Climate Models, including those used in IPCC projections.

Illustration Source: ICELANDIC MET OFFICE:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67756413

See Also:

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Adaptation_and_Resilience_to_Climate_Change_Temporal_Paradox_versus_Chronology_Protection_Conjecture

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Climate_Change_and_Climate_Models_Progress_and_LimitsArticle Predictability of water resources with global climate models...

In these festive days, I would like to mention this 30 year old Paper, "Joy A. Palmer (1993) From Santa Claus to sustainability: emerging understanding of concepts and issues in environmental science, International Journal of Science Education, 15:5 , 487-495", in which the author discusses the nature and development of children's early knowledge and awareness of environmental issues. as strange as it may seem, we learn that "pre‐school children may well have a strong base of accurate scientific knowledge upon which early years environmental teaching may build." Happy Holidays For All

See Also:

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Adaptation_and_Resilience_to_Climate_Change_Temporal_Paradox_versus_Chronology_Protection_Conjecture