Update---I currently have 1000 people participating distributed throughout the US of all age groups. More participants needed and I will publish results.
Missing Numbers in the COVID-19 Equation: Answer 7 Questions to Fill the Gaps.
I am Dr. John Kern, and I am a PhD statistician, and I am leading a small group of scientists asking you to help us estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in the general population of the United States.
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/83D55ST
The disease mortality rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of people with the disease.
This is an important number for developing a protective, yet commensurate response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, for COVID-19 and other communicable diseases, the number of people with the disease (prevalence) is unknown because many cases go unreported; some are mild, others are misdiagnosed.
To date, testing for COVID-19 in the general population has been minimal because limited tests are prioritized for confirming cases in those who are sick. The total number of cases remains elusive-- We have heard Dr. Fauci report that there could be 150M cases or that anything is possible. We find this level of imprecision unacceptable given the sweeping effects of public health decisions.
Yet accurate estimate of COVID-19 prevalence remains critical if public health professionals are to craft effective commensurate approaches to managing the disease. We’ve all heard of flattening the curve. But without understanding of the number of COVID-19 infections, strategies for flattening the curve may be ineffective or over blown, relative to the risks of the disease. Decision making without accurate estimates of COVID-19 infections would be much like steering a boat in a heavy fog. Decisions are likely to be ineffective and potentially dangerous.
As professional scientists working in the environmental sciences, we believe that the number of COVID-19 cases is estimable with simple statistical methods based on symptomatic data, combined with existing CDC testing results and we are using citizen science with social media to collect the needed information.
We are asking you to take less than a minute or two to answer a few simple questions.
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/83D55ST
· Our survey is anonymous. (We are not collecting IP addresses, or e-mail addresses)
· If response is adequate and representative, we will summarize the results and present it to the federal, state and local decision makers, the general public and peer reviewed scientific journals
· The more of us who answer the questionnaire the better, but we are targeting at least 10,000 responses, we are close to 1,000 now.
· If responses are strong we will provide for weekly updates so that we can track the trends through time which will help policy makers to decide when to relax the current restrictions on our activities.
Hey John, the answer is .. a lot! I hope you are doing well my friend. http://linkedin.com/in/treydobson
New update closing in on 2,000 responses and getting some interesting results.
See real time results hre
https://www.surveymonkey.com/stories/SM-CF6G7GT9/
Preprint Investigating COVID-19: Quantifying recurring methodological...
Good ideas
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