How can we calculate the probability? Celestial mechanics (centripetal force).
Three body problem in the Newtonian gravity is unstable in general. In Solar System the most important perturbation to the other planet orbits comes from the Jupiter
I think the collision is impossible, because there is a balance gravitation among the star and planets, especially in solar system.
This might be the most important question in Newtonian Mechanics, perhaps in all of Classical Physics. It does not only say something about the future of our solar system, it could potentially, due to time-reversal symmetry, also say something about the origins of the solar system. If you can give a definitive answer to this problem, you WILL get a Nobel Prize. Asimov wrote a short story based on the difficulty of solving the many body problem in Celestial Mechanics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nightfall_(Asimov_short_story_and_novel)
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