Look at "Stability of epidemic model with time delays influenced by stochastic perturbations " and other works of Prof. V. B. Kolmanovskii

Article Stability of epidemic model with time delays influenced by s...

Stochastic modeling is a useful tool for predicting future prices of commodities such as maize in Kenya. This modeling technique takes into account the various factors that can affect the price of maize, including weather patterns, market demand and supply, and government policies.

For example, weather patterns can significantly impact the production of maize. A severe drought can reduce the crop yield, leading to a scarcity of maize and higher prices. Similarly, if there is an increase in demand for maize due to population growth or changing dietary habits, the price of maize may rise as well.

Government policies, such as subsidies or import restrictions, can also affect the price of maize in Kenya. For instance, if the government offers subsidies to maize farmers, the cost of production may decrease, leading to lower prices for maize. On the other hand, if the government imposes import restrictions on maize, the domestic supply may be reduced, leading to higher prices.

Stochastic modeling takes all of these factors into account and generates multiple scenarios to estimate future maize prices. The model considers the likelihood of various outcomes based on historical data and current market conditions. By doing so, the model provides useful insights into potential future price trends and can help farmers, traders, and policymakers make informed decisions about production, trade, and regulation.