Given the current increase in the use of sources of clean renewable energy (for example, solar, wind, hydro, biomass, etc.), I wonder if it can be estimated the year in which fossil fuels will correspond to a low amount (for example, 20%) of the world’s energy consumption.
There is no statistical evidence that the global energy trend is toward the lower level of fossil use. Certainly, some other rationals you have, but calculating a point of time in the future based on international agreements and policies are not enough to identify it.
Energy consumption is increasing and only a small development is in using sustainable energy sources globally.
In some countries, you could follow a trendline. For instance, Costa Rica is already there.
The link below is extremely useful, interactive downloadable databases and analyses are included.
https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-and-changing-energy-sources
Hello Joao,
Interesting question indeed. in case of electricity, the share of renewable energies for electricity production increased from 18% in 1999 to more than 34% in 2017.
I like to refer you to Global Energy Statistical Yearbook at:
https://yearbook.enerdata.net/renewables/renewable-in-electricity-production-share.html
Hi Joao,
There is no precise correlation or study that will lead you directly there. The share of traditional fossil fuels that is used respond to different facts, either of scientific and/or social nature. For example, the EDD (Energy Efficiency Directive) of the European Union has ambitious goals to be achieved in terms of energy, and this can drive a higher transition at European Level. On the other hand, the development the technique called hydraulic fracturing (or fracking) pushed in the opposite direction, also supported by the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement by EEUU. Moreover, China, India and other strong developing economies have identified the potential of renewable energies and therefore are constantly investing and adapting to this global trend, which can cause an acceleration in the transition from fossil fuels to alternative fuels.
Hence, an accurate estimation to the value that you want to obtain should consider the scenarios for the different regions and the technological developments that are currently taking place, along with the policies that certain governmental bodies are adopting in this matter.
You can check:
- This study (data are from 2008, so you can get an idea of how precise the study predicted the actual state in 2018):
Electrical Power Vision 2040 for Europe—a EUREL study
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00502-013-0128-2.pdf
- This European agency that tracks energy production, consumption, technologies and transformation, and provide extensive data about energies in Europe (yearly and even quarter reports).
https://www.eurobserv-er.org/
Many sources record historical and try to project future global energy demand. All of the credible ones show fossil energy use increasing into the foreseeable future. Check the US Energy Information Energy International Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook, the BP Energy Outlook, or any number of other national energy agencies' documents.
Renewable energy supplies are increasing rapidly. However, their current contribution and rate of increase cannot keep pace with the increasing demand for energy, so fossil fuels are also increasing. The use of specific fossil fuels is decreasing in some regions (China and the US are using and are projected to use less coal, for example). However, most projections show coal use increasing globally, albeit at a slower rate than other fossil and renewable fuels. Nuclear is a major uncertainty, with most projecting/hoping it increases in the long term but showing minimal change in the short term.
There are a few things that can probably be said with some certainty:
1. All of these projections will be quantitatively wrong and most if not all will be qualitatively wrong, but they are the best we can do right now
2. No one can project the future energy supplies with high accuracy
3. There is no point in the foreseeable future in which fossil energy drops to zero. There is, in fact, no point in any of these projections in which it decreases, though its percentage of total energy is already decreasing.
You posed a very difficult question. This question is of interest to the general public, researchers and decision makers in the energy field. I expect that this can not be determined by the many factors influencing the two sides of the energy equation, what is available and what consumption and techniques are used in the future.
Dear Larry L. Baxter,
Thanks for your reply. You pointed out that the contribution of fossil fuel to the world's energy consumption is increasing (including coal). Unfortunately you are correct, considering figure 19 in document https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/0484(2017).pdf. And apparently there is no indication in this curve that the consumption of fossil fuels will decrease this century. Can it mean that crops will reduce significantly in the next few years? (crops are sensitive to climate change). Are we supposed to support projects that attempt to investigate means for humans to abandon planet Earth and live in some other planet in the next century?
- Badges
- Science topic
- Similar topics
- Physical Sciences
- Energy
- Energy-Generating Resources
- Renewable Energy