If you construct a battery pack it is relevant to know the failure probability of a single cell to estimate the failure rate of the pack.
If we consider current pouch cells with a capacity of ca. 50 Ah, what would be the failure rate (in failure per hour)?
Just take mass production and a high end quality supplier. The application is a battery electric vehicle and the mximum C-rate 3C. The depth of discharge can be assumed to be 85%.
The best way to predict the failure rate (# of failures per hour) of Li-I battery is to perform an accelerated life testing (ALT) or highly accelerated life testing (HALT). If not feasible, then field failure rate data could be used or better you could predict the failure rate using physics of failure (PoF) modeling.
Based on research experience in reliability engineering and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), I estimate lambda (the failure rate) of Li-I battery between 1E-4/hr (lower bound) and 1E-3/hr (upper bound). That is to say, lambda could be between one failure per 10,000 operating hours up to one failure per 1,000 operating hour.
Hope this helps answer your question.
Professor Yehia Khalil, Yale University, USA
Fellow of the University of Oxford, United Kingdom
,
Thank you for your detailed answer.
I totally agree on your procedure when we talk about the failure rates you have mentioned (1E-4/hr).
We assume that we are in the order of 1E-8. Than tests are much too time and cost consuming. ANd filed data are almost not available.
Could you think about other approaches?
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