Though number of climate change prediction tools are available based on different scenarios , their reliability may be a question for different regions of the world. If any body have experience on that, please give some guidance me to select very best fitted model for sri lanka specialty for dry zone. I need at least 2-3 km spatial resolution and prediction upto 2050s
Please check the following link and PDF attachments.
46455924_Observed_and_projected_climatic_changes_their_impacts_and_adaptation_options_for_Sri_Lanka_a_review
Dear Wijayawardhana
You should try LEAP (The Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System). According to their website “LEAP is fast becoming the de facto standard for countries undertaking integrated resource planning, greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation assessments, and Low Emission Development Strategies (LEDS) especially in the developing world, and many countries have also chosen to use LEAP as part of their commitment to report to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). At least 32 countries used LEAP to create energy and emissions scenarios that were the basis for their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions on Climate Change (INDCs): the foundation of the historic Paris climate agreement intended to demonstrate the intent of countries to begin decarbonizing their economies and invest in climate-resilience.”
This is the link https://www.energycommunity.org/default.asp?action=introduction
Best Regards
Yves
Dear Kenneth
I'm sorry for taking so long to reply your question. Obviously the reffered software is not a tool to predict the future. It will allow a estimation of the GHGs emissions by different sources of energy for example. It also has a huge database that includes Sri lanka. Let's say that Wijayawardhana is interested in measure how the growth of determined source of energy for the electric grid in Sri Lanka will contribute to CO2e emissions in that region. There's an article of Jayatilaka and Limmeechokchai (2014) "Impact of energy poverty alleviation actions on energy demand and co2 emission: A case study of SriLanka" that study the subject.
And even if this is not what Wijayawardhana has in mind I guess that's a valuable tool to anyone interested in estimate climate change around the world.
Best regards and respects.
Yves
I think LEAP (The Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System) is widely in use in such primary studies but how far it will help in forecasting 205 is a question?
One of the most suitable ways to predict climate change for the future is a statistical downscaling. LARS and SDSM are two useful software in the field. You can use them to predict climate change for a specific site. This prediction is based on the scenarios of the fifth report of the IPCC and the GCM models (CMIP5) by the end of the twenty-first century.
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