Most governments around the World are lost at handling their borders policy since the start of Covid-19. We are often seeing a hiccup style open/close of borders, dictated by fear and scoops rather than scientific evaluation of the situation, which harms economies and the air industry. In order to try and fix this, I have built a mathematical model to calculate the risks of allowing in passengers from a given country. The model is called Selective Entry Dynamic Risk Assessment (SEDRA). It calculates a "Safety Index" for each country, which is updated every week. Countries are then put in 5 "Risk Groups" ranging from "VERY LOW" to "VERY HIGH, according to this Safety Index. This allows governments to have a universal criterion to determine which countries can be considered safer than others, and allow passengers in selectively but constantly, rather than closing borders at each new variant or outburst somewhere.

I am looking for collaborators in helping refine this model, contribute ideas and eventually programming to make this more interactive and available to governments. Academic co-signatories of this paper are also welcome, in view of publication.

Preprint SEDRA: Selective Entry Dynamic Risk Assessment A mathematica...