The ongoing processes in the US and in some EU countries, together with an always "hot" situation in the Middle East and the instability in the North Korea could slow down the growth rate of globalization of products and services.
The globalization gave to many chances to success but also, the politics and rules are created by developed countries. To find your own place you must see from example of Korea in past, and example of Brazil now and take one aggressive approach, not only for their good , but also for global benefit. Learning on the mistakes in Latin America , now countries of BRICS can help shape global economy, even there are a lot of unfair rules , and selective approach to some recommendations and policies with careful research of economic variable in specific country can make globalization beneficial and manageable to developing countries. North Korea is isolated and generally out of the story about globalization and its contribution to global economy is neglectable.
You are taking up a question that George Soros already asked in the mid 1980s. My answer is: yes (global economic growth will slow down, due to nationalist protectionism).Things may happen virtually speedy in cyberspace, but they are realized on the ground of physical space (territory). When Mr. Gorbachev met leading US secret service leaders in Moscow in the early 1990s, he saluted them with: welcome on the ground.
The WTO was created in the mid-nineties to safeguard the interests of the Trans-national corporations (TNCs) and monitor the dual objective of globalization and trade liberalization. It is true that the WTO is losing much steam today because of the internal coup orchestrated by its very creator, the U.S., but this does not yet make the nationalist drive the winner. The WTO is the caretaker of globalization, and it seems difficult to believe that the TNCs will let globalization down for the sake of the so-called new trend of protectionist populism or what President Trump perceives as a new movement. Globalization is after all the bread and butter of the TNCs. Too much is at stake to stop the process of globalization for the emerging nationalist movements.
Modified yes but stopped I do not think so. Nationalist attempts will not stop globalization, which remains, in my opinion, an irreversible process, accelerated by information and communication technologies.
Below I put the link to the "2018 New Year message" that the 3 Presidents of the main shipping companies of Japan (i.e. K-Line, MOL and NYK) have addressed to their employees and that inspired me the question.
Yes. Global logistics can serve as a quantitative measure for your question; good methodical idea. It reads in that message: ' continue to be prepared for tough times'.
Social systems evolution is always contra-polar (regression vs. progression); we are dealing with human made systems. Before WW1, world trade was already highly integrated (see: attachment).
Interesting question, Luca. Perhaps both answers are possible. I think that it is a bifurcation point in history. Really, 50% of the USA were for Trump. Brexit is another step showing that nationalists can win. There are other opponents of globalization in the world, but there are also many people who like it.
Will nationalist drives stop the process of globalization?
As the global trend towards value convergence & economic equilibrium due to scarcity of resources & technologies improvement / digital transformation across the world, for long run don't think nationalism can stop the globalization albeit they can temporary disrupt the globalization process.
Globalization is a complicated issue. It is necessary to evaluate the pros and cons before drawing any conclusions .
The general complaint about globalization is that it has made the rich richer while making the non-rich poorer. “It is wonderful for managers, owners and investors, but hell on workers and nature.”
It depends on what you mean by globalization. I usually believe that "globalization" is much more than WTO and MNEs, even if these became the most visible, or most often cited, manifestations of the phenomenon. And there is no doubt that they are living in turbulent times, with major consequences for the world economy.
However, if by globalization you mean the totality of international (cross-border) transactions, my guess is that they will not be stopped but shifted from global to regional focus. Then it is up to you to say if this new regionalism is a variety of what you mean by globalization of its antithesis.
If by globalization you mean only the actions of companies, they will definitively adjust to protectionism, leading to a slowdown in international investment (but will not stop them).
You may have guessed rightly that, in my view, globalization also includes the actions of people as individuals and in groups, and it is tricky to predict what happens to them. For instance, will international migration slow down or not? We do not know. Will people use new technologies to counter protectionism and nationalism? Or will they accept nationalism and protectionism, and use new technologies to slow down globalization? And what about the non-economic facets of globalization, including the social, cultural, political and military elements (to mention a few)? How will they react to nationalism? I personally do not know and cannot guess.
I agree with Dr Kelman and would like to add that one of primary (psychological, not just economic or politica) feature of globalization resides in the consciousness of the global or individual consciousness of the global situation where the world is viewed as an arena in which all people participate. Globalization has been internalized and will not stop (no escape!).
Globalization in 21st century acts in reciprocal manner, all the State actors are involved in the process of globalization directly or indirectly, partially or completely, willingly or unwillingly. Nationalist factors and drives does not stop the process of globalization but they can decrease the rate of process of globalization upto some extent. Nationalist drive is working like curtain partner for the process of globalization in mass perceptions while the process is going on in invisible manner.
Some views in French (sorry) : https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/cercle/cercle-178337-le-commerce-international-en-questions-cinq-reponses-pour-ce-debut-dannee-2018-2147035.php
Dear Luca, Yes the article is good, But, I think that although Mike Featherstone’s book Global Culture: Nationalism, Globalization and Modernity: A Theory Culture and Society Special Issue, was published more than 2 decades ago (1990), it still provides, through various excellent papers (chapters), a sound discussion of the current problems.
Globalization is a worldwide movement toward economic, financial, trade, and communications integration, some time ago. It implies the opening of local and nationalistic perspectives to a broader outlook of an interconnected and interdependent world with free transfer of capital, goods, and services across national frontiers. However, it does not include movement of labor
Globalization is like a shade it coudn´t be touch, but is a irreversible process
I do agree with most of Ms. Pantoja's definition of globalization. However, I wonder why the movement of labour is not part of it. Is it because there are more obstacles to the movement of people than to the movement of capitalism, finance, technology? If that is the case, we are facing a policy/regulatory issue, not a globalization question per se...
Yes, there are factors contribute positively to strengthening the globalization, foremost among technological progress and the information and communication revolution
On the other hand, the intense political rivalry between China and the United States , And between the United States, Iran and European Union
All these factors caused greatest damage to globalization
Probably not. The factors that have been behind globalisation in the past, are likely to continue. However, it is possible to change certain factors. it is possible for countries to place tariff barriers and restrict immigration and trade agreements are not increased.