FMD CP started in year 2003 in India in some selected districts and some good results were obtained for control of FMD in India and then in 2010 it was started at large scale in several states of the country. However, in the states where FMD CP was implemented FMD outbreaks increased year by year and now after four years the number of outbreaks were figuring approximately 4 times than those were before implementation of FMD-CP. In contrast, where FMD-CP is not implemented number of outbreaks are still at the same level as it was in 2010 with only few exceptions.
Could it be that the FMD vaccine is not a vaccine but FMD virus? The World Health Organization estimated that one in five drugs made in India are fakes!
Might also be a observation problem.
Since a FMD observation scheme is imposed in some regions, the number of committed observations increased in this regions? If there are benefits (i.e. money compensation for farmers) that encourage reporting, that could increase the numbers significantly?
Dear Bjor R Singh,
as FMD is highly contagious also changes in animal transport might influence outbreaks. In Europe FMD outbreaks follow roads and in the aftermaths are often connected to markets or slaughterhouses. I will not contradict the vaccine theory (Europe had had its share of vaccine related FMD outbreaks in the past too) but take into account that also changes in marketing and between-farm-cooperation (concentration process, differentiation of animal production that increases animal transport between farms) might lead to / or interact with FMD outbreaks.
For the sake of guessing, another lesson from the past is, that without FMD eradication schemes by vaccination/culling you have a number of partial-immune subclinical infected animals in stables and changes of the housing situation (intensive production, increasing density, transport ) leading to stress forced clinical outbreaks.
Thus, given that the overall market/farm production situation in some regions from 2003 to 2010/13 have changed significantly more than in others, the number of outbreaks might have increased here too.
Only add an example i remember from my university time at TiHo, India had become one of the worlds biggest cattle leather producers/exporters in the early 21th century, resulting in a massive increase of inter state cattle transport from hindi to the muslim regions.
Andreas
Apparent increased numbers of cases could be due to multiple reasons, including:
- Increased awareness of FMD leading to increased reporting
- Changes in livestock demographics / farming systems / transportation leading to new or more opportunities for virus transmission
- Vaccine failures - poor matching of vaccine strains to circulating field FMD virus strains; poor vaccination coverage; cold chain problems; poor quality vaccines; waning herd immunity due to too long a period between re-vaccinations etc.
Eradicating FMD in endemic settings through vaccination requires a concerted effort over many years. I can recommend the Progressive Control Pathway approach developed by FAO: http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/commissions/eufmd/commissions/eufmd-home/progressive-control-pathway-pcp/en/
Kind regards,
Robert Sanson
Dear Dr.Sigh,
What are the possibilities for a reservoir host?
Sincerely.
Arun
Finally IIL Hyderabad came up with a million dollar suit against me. Welcome.
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