Weather, precipitation and stream forecasting has made many leaps in technology. US agencies as the Geological Survey, FEMA and NOAA support a variety of techniques and recording instrumentation to assist in making these forecasts. Severe rainfall in select mountainous watersheds are identified as to possible flooding issues. Some of this may be historic problems, and some identified as susceptible areas by developing floodplain maps. Under Executive Order 11988 in 1977, much development of federal facilities in floodplains has been curtailed, and warnings are put on federal roads and highways, bridges, recreation areas, etc. on the estimated 100 year flood elevation. Flash floods are still a problem even with some early warnings, because people continue to underestimate the power of water, try to cross flooded waterways, etc. Some lives are lost because some floods occur at night, and people are disoriented and do not have an escape plan. Cell phones are possible great warning systems if left on, or some countries besides US may also have early warning radios for weather issues. In US, if your home is within a 100 year floodplain, the insurance costs are higher.

Some of the skills of hydrologists and some civil engineers include assessing specific areas for flood potential, reading channel type and conditions, looking for flood indicators, collecting pertinent rainfall, streamflow, topographic and land use data, etc. Even with the best data and forecasting, it may still be difficult to get this information to those in harms way in time. And in some landforms, landslides generated by intense rainfall may contribute added hazards. Years back, one of the soil scientists on the USFS BAER team told of a major wildfire in the headwaters, and warned a KOA campground downstream and local police to evacuate in extreme weather, as severe wildfires can develop hydrophobic soils and the soils are susceptible to landslides. Some time later, a severe coastal storm in this watershed activated landslides and buried the campground with some lives lost. Many people just don’t listen and understand the flash flooding and associated hazards require immediate attention and awareness, day or night.

An example is the Albert Pike Campground and the Little Missouri River flash flood with loss of lives. This story took a toll on a friend, a very capable hydrologist who identified problems of expanding the campground into the estimated flood zone. His warning went unheeded in campground expansion, and lives were lost. There have been quite a few articles written on this unfortunate loss of lives in the middle of the night, while campers were asleep. Just a note, hydrologists as well as soil scientists are typically considered consultants, advisors, etc. Most of us lack authority to alter management decisions. That’s where the flood warning signs add some help in identifying public hazard areas, but still severe rain can occur in headwaters and catch people by surprise.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2010/nov/21/river-turns-campground-into-deadly-trap/

Flash flood detection through a multi-stage probabilistic warning system for heavy precipitation events

2011, Advances in Geosciences

📷Lorenzo Alfieri

A New Application of Domain Specific Modeling Towards Implementing an Early Warning Service

Published 2010

📷Syed Imran