Hello everyone,
In my study I have found that due to climate change, the freshwater availability in the basin is declining which has put large parts of the basin under water stress conditions, thus water insecurity for the residents. Now I further need to assess the impact of decreasing freshwater availability on food security in the basin. I have the data of around 15 years regarding seasonal (kharif, Rabi and perennial crops) agricultural production in tonnes along with the area cultivated in hectares at sub-district level. Using these data, how can I quantify the impact of climate change on food production? I am specifically looking for particular index or indices which can be derived from the available data for aforesaid purpose.
Your suggestions and comments are really appreciated.
Thanks and regards!
Priyank Sharma
check this links maybe help you
Article Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivit...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30772568
Dear Pryank, You could develop a questionnaire where farmers answer questions you may want to propose. For example, for the specific crops you mentioned where the yields steady, or did they vary considerably through the years? What about pathogens (bacteria, fungi and more) who may have been occurring in dry years versus years with sufficient water availability. At what rate is the water availability decreasing? Are farmers and their families being displaced from the area because of water scarcity. In other words, another important variable in your study could be the human population density in the area and its change due to water availability.
Hai Priyank,
If you have the data on water availability, irrigated area and crop production over the years, by simple calculation we can understand how these factors influenced the food production in that area. However, if you are considering both rainfed and irrigated area then apart from freshwater availability data, you can consider the rainfall and temperature data of that region and assess the drought years and then compare with crop production.
However for future predictions, several models are available. For details you can check FAO/ IIASA models
Some of the articles in these line I am enclosing for your reference
Climate change affects both directly and indirectly
Direct by influencing the yield per unit area
Indirectly by affecting production costs due to, for example, a decrease in the water level of the river and thus requires more costs for transporting water and increasing the amount of water lost by evaporation and thus increasing the amount of water required for irrigation ... etc.
You can use the above parameters in the study
I ♥ hope my suggestion is useful to you
I think you can do yield gap analysis. That is for each year determined the observed yield. Also for each year determine through simulation the expected yield and the difference can be used as an index for climate change effect.
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