Dear Colleagues,
There are various institutions (formal and informal) that forecast petroleum or natural gas prices.
I wonder if you could give me some advice? please introduce the institutions you know. How reliable are they?
Do you know of a study that analyzed oil price forecasts?
I appreciate your help
Best Wishes
Sajad
the Financial Forecast Center: http://www.forecasts.org
As to who predicts best: it depends on the metric you want to use.
For choosing the best metric let me recommend this research:
Chapter Forecast Error Measures: Critical Review and Practical Recommendations
As far as I know, OPEC as the biggest oil cartel.
They publish very useful, extensive periodic report which can be found on their website.
Various agencies available OPEC, European Central Bank, IMF and World Bank
The sites and agencies noted by previous contributors are quite useful. I would like to add that oil and gas price formation relies on the interaction of demand and supply and the assessment of risk exposures by producers and consumers, which inform their use of derivatives (including forwards, futures and options). Accordingly, oil price reporting agencies (PRAs) are crucial to the transparency and reliability of the price assessment process, and you will find that they largely influence oil/gas price forecasts. This linked report to the G20 Finance Ministers in 2011 is dated, but it provides a good summary of the intricacies: https://www.iosco.org/library/pubdocs/pdf/IOSCOPD364.pdf
There are several PRAs, but Argus and Platts are the most extensively used, with oil industry participants and government fiscal agencies (i.e., national oil companies) relying on both for oil pricing information.
Dear all,
Again I would recommend OPEC as the biggest oil cartel. They publish very extensive annual report. please check their website: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/
Alfitouri Ibrahim Jellah
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