Employing the Monte Carlo method I can find the probability of failure of structural elements in fire, but I need the values of the probabilities of the fire and subsequent flashover for to complete the study.
Dear Prof. Silva,
In the fire loads sections of the JCSS Probabilistic Model Code (http://www.jcss.byg.dtu.dk/Publications/Probabilistic_Model_Code), you may find different models for the probability of fire ignition and probability of flash over occurrance.
Regards.
Dear Prof. Silva,
you can find some values in EN 1991-1-2. Statistical key data has been evaluated by Prof. Hosser from TU Braunschweig (literature review) and Prof. Fontana at ETH (data from public fire assurance).
Kind Regards
Hi Valdir,
Probability of failure of single member is no use in real situation, as it is part of a system which is redundant and loss of a few members are of no consequence. If you have a closed form solution, which is possible for a beam or column, then MC is practical. Otherwise for each realization of variables you nee a full non-linear structural analysis, when using MC, which is not practical. You must use structural reliability methods, of which FORM is the simplest.
You need to perform a quantitative risk assessment for all possible fires. The design fire in the offshore industry has a probably of occurrence less than E-4 to E-5. A few of my publications on offshore fires (archived on research gate) might be of some use to you.
Best regards
Sirous Yasseri
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