- reliable in terms it is deterministic instead of stochastic;
- reliable in terms that the method is scientifically well supported;
- etc.
None of the methods can be 'best' in all the abovementioned properties at the same time. The task/aim/hardware/software determine which method should you use.
Here you go some publications you may be interested in:
Article A review of comparative studies of spatial interpolation met...
Book A Review of Spatial Interpolation Methods for Environmental Scientists
All the tools have their own importance depending on the work you are doing and the nature of your data. There is not any such best method. All methods have their own merits and demerits. So the main thing is on which type of data you are working
While various GIS software packages include options for interpolation, you shouldn't limit your search or consideration to GIS. The first question you should ask is why do you want to generate an interpolated map and what do you want to use it for. What kind of data do you have, what do you know about the phenomenon that generated the data. How much data do you have, i.e. the number of data locations and what kind of spatial pattern for the data locations?
Do you already have access to a GIS package, proprietary software or open source?
IDW is heuristic method, i.e. it is not based on any theory only intuition. That said, you can use it for essentially any data set but you only get what you pay for. It will not provide any measure of the reliability of the results. It may seem to work well for one data set and terrible for another.
Kriging is based on several statistical assumptions and hence you have to consider whether those assumptions are satisfied, there are also several versons of kriging so you have to consider which is more appropriate. It is not a black box
Splines are a special case of Radial Basis functions and in turn these are essentially equivalent to universal kriging.
Since you are at U. Wollongong, if E. Baafi is still there talk to him. Also I think that Noel Cressie is there, talk to him.
See the following
1994, Myers,D.E., Spatial Interpolation: An Overview Geoderma 62, 17-28
1991, Myers,D.E.Interpolation and Estimation with Spatially Located Data Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems 11, 209-228
(this is a tutorial on kriging and uses free software)
1994, Myers,D.E., Statistical Methods for Interpolation of Spatial Data Inter. J. Applied Science and Computations 1, 283- 318
1990, A.W. Warrick, R. Zhang, M.M. Moody and D.E. Myers, Kriging Versus Alternative Interpolators: Errors and Sensitivity to Model Inputs - in Field-Scale Water and Solute Flux in Soils (Monte Verita),(eds)Roth, Fl�hler, and Jury � Birkhauser Verlag Basel