Worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic is having unprecedented and deleterious effects on food production. The impact can be ascertained in terms of shortage in food supply, demand for semi-perishable food items especially during lock-down, food inflation, reverse migration of rural laborers etc. However, the long-run effects of the pandemic on any agrarian economy, especially emerging economies is highly uncertain. In the context, what kind of data and methodology (econometric) can be utilized to track the short-run and long-run impact on the agriculture sector? Any sample papers using econometric approaches to quantify the impact will be highly appreciated.
Here are some useful O&A from FAO:
http://www.fao.org/2019-ncov/q-and-a/en/
and a Briefing note from ILO
https://www.ilo.org/sector/Resources/publications/WCMS_742023/lang--en/index.htm
Country-level analyses and experiences and researches by public agricultural research networks are also helpful:
https://www.cgiar.org/news-events/all-news/our-response-to-covid-19/
See also the https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/society/20200416STO77203/covid-19-emergency-measures-to-help-eu-farmers-and-fishermen
The situation is still in flux, instead of econometric analyses are recommended the scenario methods.
Came across an interesting paper by Thomas Reardon
et al. (2020) on "COVID-19’s Disruption of India’s Transformed Food Supply Chains" published in the Economic and political weekly.
Abstract
COVID-19 has created high transaction costs and uncertainty in India’s transformed food supply chains, putting food security at risk as 92% of food consumption in India is purchased, predominantly from the private sector. Government faces the challenge of marshalling resources between mitigating the impending food crisis and containing the contagion as the risk of sociopolitical tensions looms large. It is recommended that the government concentrate on sustaining the food supply chains towards eventual rebound, recognising that government food distribution cannot replace even a tenth of the market.
Link to the full paper: https://www.epw.in/journal/2020/18/commentary/covid-19s-disruption-indias-transformed-food.html
Another FAO link that seems useful, from FAO's Data Lab. Focused on methodologies:
https://datalab.review.fao.org/methodology.html#
In the short run the effect is negative because according FAO reports on food price index revealed a decrease in food price index for the month of March-April 2020 but in the long run the effect will change to positive.
We at http://ecociateconsultants.com/ have done the detailed study around Impact of Covid-19 on major crops in India. Some of the findings are as follows
Covid-19 is having wide spread impact on Agriculture in India and other countries. However impact is more linked with the seasonality and perishability of the crop. While some crops like Sugarcane, Mint etc. are seeing the impact at production stages other crops like Wheat, Spices, Pulses are more affected at Harvesting, Post production and marketing stages. You may visit the following pages for detailed report
http://ecociateconsultants.com/impact-of-covid19-on-indian-agriculture/
or my profile page at the following link
Santosh Gupta
https://www.ilo.org/sector/Resources/publications/WCMS_742023/lang--en/index.htm
https://www.ifpri.org/blog/addressing-covid-19-impacts-agriculture-food-security-and-livelihoods-india
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1111/(ISSN)1744-7976.COVID-19-Canadian-Agriculture-Food
Dear Friends & Colleagues,
Greetings!
Amidst the distress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, we wish you're safe and healthy. As a research team, we're interested to capture your valuable responses on consumption pattern during the lockdown period across India. We appreciate your time and interest to answer the questions below (takes around 5 minutes) and it is assured that the individual responses will be confidential and solely intended for research purpose.
*Kindly fill the online form and please share with others* (ONLY for INDIA residents)
Thanks 🙏
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeULJTgXBFcxYYrRj_D8Ou4qfjXG3QI1cAf2cEnnGmRJPOWzg/viewform?fbclid=IwAR2kTUsnbXb9BllSRwCQ8WZnGcn265KszVYpXnzRGaKRbrsh8uALcCJ5uwk
There seems to be some issues in questionnaire..Question number-
2. What are your concerns during COVID-19? (Rank the following) *
The message i am getting is " Please don't select more than one response per column " Tried everything to avoid it. Please check
Santosh Gupta many thanks for your interest. Well, the issue is because same ranks your might have assigned to two or more statements. If you're using mobile, kindly swipe left and see rank 4 and 5. Please give different ranks to different statements.. It will be done. Thanks again for your interest and support.
Sir, I wish to get connected with you for some of your research interest in Bio fortification, Covid Impact studies and other subjects. Will it be possible for you to either call me at my number 8128685155 or share your contact number, I will call you. Thanks in advance.
Sendhil Ramadas You may go to this link;
https://www.agritecture.com/blog/2020/3/23/6-impacts-of-covid-19-on-agriculture
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/commissioners/2019-2024/wojciechowski/announcements/eu-response-impact-covid-19-agriculture_en
Amongst different sub groups of agriculture, floriculture suffered a lot during the period.
You will find answer to your question in my published article. Omekwe Sunday Paul & Obayori Joseph Bidemi (2020).The Effect of Coronavirus on Agriculture and Education in Nigeria, Economics And Social Sciences Academic Journal
Vol.2, No.5; May- 2020. ISSN (5282 -0053)
Impact of COVID-19 on agricultural sector is immense. Farmers are put off from working in their lands or from assessing to markets for sailing their products. Agricultural production and trade are affected to a great extent as well. Large scale traders (fish, shrimp and crab) are facing export bans due to closure of export routes, shortage of labors, quarantine restriction and obstructions. Such restrictions will hinder the demand for agricultural products and suspended transportation will affect agricultural trade resulting in significant economic loss.
Here is our answer in one published article last MAY 2020
Article Will novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic impact agricultur...
Our recent manuscript (preprint) on effects of COVID-19 in India which is ranked 1 in SSRN downloads for the recent month
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343916781_Pandemic_led_food_price_anomalies_and_supply_chain_disruption_Evidence_from_COVID-19_incidence_in_India
http://www.fao.org/family-farming/detail/en/c/1272443/
http://www.fao.org/family-farming/detail/en/c/1300574/
http://www.fao.org/family-farming/detail/en/c/1275295/
Our preprint (accepted for publication in Current Research in Environmental Sustainability) on COVID-19 impact on agriculture
Preprint Deciphering the impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on food security...
I feel that COVID-19 pandemic has impacted both positively and negatively. Farmers in India were selling their produce mainly in APMC markets or to middle man., But because of COVID-19, middle man and consumers were afraid so the produce was not marketable initially. By then, the farmers started adopting direct marketing of fruits and vegetables to the consumers in van. This has resulted in enhanced producers share in consumers rupee and thus the income. On other hand, few farmers who were concentrating majorly on International markets could not sell their produce at International market because of non availability of the transportation. Also, the increased awareness of consumers regarding the diet and to maintain their immune system strong, the consumption of fruits and vegetables also increased. Supply being the same, but increase in demand has resulted in price gain to the producers.
COVID-19 has though farmers and all of us a great lesson and benefits of direct marketing.
Yes, the other sectors like floriculture has been worst hit by the pandemic. All marriage ceremonies and other functions were postponed or cancelled which resulted in lack of demand and wastage of the produce. I could also see the farmers not even harvesting the flowers instead they were mulching the crop in the soil.
Our recent manuscript (preprint) on effects of COVID-19 in India and 10-point strategy for post-pandemic recovery. Please read it below and give your comments:
Preprint Impact of COVID-19 on the Indian Agricultural System: A 10-P...
Also available in SSRN:
Cariappa, A G Adeeth and Acharya, Kamlesh Kumar and Adhav, Chaitanya and R, Sendhil and Ramasundaram, P., Effect of COVID-19 on Indian Agricultural System: A 10-Point Strategy for Post-Pandemic Recovery (October 10, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3708760 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3708760
A G Adeeth Cariappa Kamlesh Kumar Acharya Chaitanya Ashok Adhav
Article Drastic impacts of COVID-19 on food, agriculture and economy
https://www.thepab.org/files/2021/March-2021/PAB-MS-2006-215.pdf
Please read our recent manuscript on the effects of Covid-19 on food, agriculture, and economy
Kindly have a look into our published article concerning this question
http://www.seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/54560