Statistical models are essential as they help experts to predict the trajectory of the pandemic such as infectivity / mortality rate, efficacy of a certain treatment and diagnosis, and so on.

It doesn't quite answer the question as it only talks about epidemic parameters, but I have written a blog sort of on topic:

https://medium.com/@adrian.esterman/are-the-statistics-we-see-in-articles-about-the-coronavirus-accurate-fa988902162a?source=friends_link&sk=b7eabaf853da1d60205a889686cfca38

Statistics and Statistician's Role During the Current COVID-19 Pandemic

Statisticians and epidemiologists are part and parcel of any country's national and local health committees to give projections of number of expected COVID-19 cases and mortality data as well as the effect of lockdowns and social distancing measures on flattening the curve.

They are also helping to determine the local Ro (transmission and spread risk).

Off course they are the cornerstone of any of the COVID-19 research team from conception, data-management, statistical analysis, and writing of any manuscript for timely publication to disseminate new aspects of the knowledge about this rapidly evolving new disease.

Lies, damned lies and statistics as Benjamin Disraeli said.

At present statistics are being used to manipulate the public into doing what the governments want. It is too early to have any clear idea of the true extent of the infection or its complications.

The role of statistics in epidemiological studies and public health can not be underestimated. Statistics is the thrust of the subject. Therefore, no statistics, no information and no intervention.

However, with the focus on the above topic, statistics is a known standardized tool of compilation, analytical reports and to ascertain the demographic facts of those affected, the carriers, determine interventions and survival rates as we move on the curve.

There is no story to be told without statistics. This is what will help in the fight of this novel COVID-19, other measures are just addendums.

Furthermore, because figures are manipulated does not rule out the rule of engagement in public health. The manipulation of figures gives insight into the importance of statistics after all, and this is the reason why NCDC should be trusted enough in the validity and credibility of the country database.

Statistics helps to determine the spread of the pandemic and how to go about sensitization of the populace. Like the number of people in quarantine/isolation, no of those infected and how to curtail the spread

Dear Peter,

although not related to the generation of information on the course of the Covid-19 infection itself, one aspect where official statistics contribute concretely in dealing at least with consequences of the lockdown in Switzerland is for example the provision of information on enterprises (activity status, employment, etc.) registered in the statistical enterprise register in order to check on the eligibility for financial support through the state.

Thanks, Volker, for mentioning this point. As you, I think that much more statistics than epidemiological indicators is needed to handle the Covid-19 epidemic.

Age, gender, chronic disease or health status before symptoms, blood PH, blood gasses parameters before and after the symptoms, blood immune parameters before and after the symptoms, the genetic family origin of infected, atmospheric data during the epidemy, economic status, eating habits, hospital infrastructure status of treatment of infected and a couple of more questions and serious research could benefit in finding out about the behaviour of the virus and its response to the human body, treatment and the system that was applied...

I will comment on this part of the question:

....................

"Insufficient information about the social consequences of loss of work, closed schools, the overloaded health system causes speculations.

"How big is the challenge of Covid-19 for official statistics? How well is official statistics equipped for giving support to experts from other fields?" 

....................

In my work at a statistical agency for official energy statistics, I felt that quick side studies of special situations done by outside groups did not fit in well with the more established, periodic surveys and resulting information we routinely produced for decision makers in the legislature, industry, and other organizations. However, when public data are needed for special events, I think it would be far better for a Government organization, with people who routinely deal with official statistics, to address this than to leave the collection, presentation and analysis of such data to special interest groups. By such Government agencies, I mean the civil servants who do the work, not the politically motivated, who of late seem less reliable. That is why actual statistics, not political pronouncements, are of importance.

[Of course, sometimes people do not want to hear the truth, and thus the persecution of the truth teller Andreas Georgiou.]

Above it was noted that a concern is "...the overloaded health system...." This may not be something that has been routinely studied, so as far as I know, there are no established official statistics routinely published on this. If so, then perhaps this will change. But providing such public information should be done in the manner of established rigorous public official statistics. The challenge is to establish this NOW, under rushed conditions.

The problem is that system tends to work always at its minimum because of the economic issues. This initiated a hesitation and a hope that it will not flow over and result in a pandemic, thus creating a late response and we had people dying in the hallways of the hospitals and then economy collapsing even more. As you pointed out politicians are looking this at their side of the interest, already declaring victory and interfering in the work of experts. The truth that is hidden always takes its toll. Politicians do think about elections coming and showing up the mistakes heavily paid is not in their interest. Statistics is very important but is not something that generates the money but rather losses in the short term. It turns out that there are no bigger plans or long term plans because of the governments lasting for four years only. It is left for kind people, humanists or enthusiasts to fight and think of a global strategy for peoples benefits rather than those who are paid to think about that.

Statistics is inevitable in any research or investigation. Ofcourse, statistical iinformation must be based on valid data that seek the truth onlu. Data that are subject to political manipulations, doubts anf prejudices are harmful and therefore not helpful.

With reference to the current COVID-19 pandemic it is opined in some quarters that COVID-19 may have common traits with SERIOUS and not MILD malaria Because of doubts and may be precautionary measures, chloroquine was put forward for test purposes.

Is it not time expert epidemiologists who are usually good in statistics come out with statistical information about those COVID'19 patients who have been successfully treated with stronger malarial drugs other than chloroquine? In Africa, malarial patients do not go for chloroquine !

So medical statisticians and epidemiologists over to you. This MIGHT be a clue for faster production of a type of vaccine for COVID-19.

Statistics provide essential data to be used in various aspects. It can be used for COVID 19 projection which shall be basis of local government and institutions of their intervention and management after lock down or community quarantine is lifted. T

May I share analysis provided by University of the Philippines on the COVID 19 projection which can be used as basis for local recommendations given the various trajectories of COVID cases in municipalities and barangays.

https://www.up.edu.ph/modified-community-quarantine-beyond-april-30-analysis-and-recommendations/?fbclid=IwAR0ZSmnvWHqgKg4DzQlT4IFnkWiPGjKVQ_WBUqj4Se7KPPgzPHrNcJouBXU

Good questions, to which we are only just starting to see answers emerging. My organisation, UNECE, is collecting the ideas and experiences of national statistical offices from around the world, as they try to adjust to the new data demands and production constraints. Our aim is to share good practices and promote dialogues between countries. See: https://statswiki.unece.org/display/COV/Support+for+managing+the+crisis

I believe that this situation has brought to the table the importance of statistics, epidemiology and progress towards data science. I also believe that it has exposed the importance of data quality so that they can contribute to the best decisions.

We still need to improve the standardization of the reports, the clear definitions of the cases, we have seen cases from countries with difficulties in counting patients and mortality, which makes the information not entirely reliable for the community.

In the fight against the COVID-19 scourge, information dissemination is very critical. Sustained statistics updates help driving the point home on where we were, where we are and what we should do. They are a precursor of socio-economic and political strategic plan for governments. Individuals have to fit in the micro-strategic plan of their country if positive results are to be realised. We are also petrified by an inevitable paradox envisaged here. One hand, there is the potential of over-sensitization of the disease thereby causing moral and economic panics. Striking a balance in the statistics updates is indeed a cumbersome but doeable task. The global media is applauded for carrying out awareness in non-partisan forms. This non instigated media neutrality evinced the need to continuously give accurate COVID-19 statistics updates. The availability of this data will inform the strategic planners on issues to do with which resources to fight the virus should be allocated. However, it is the framing of COVID-19 that needs scrutiny and a systematic academic investigation. With a few researchers, we are seized with collecting information that preliminarily suggest that the media has not sensitized the common citizens in the high density suburbs of Chinhoyi chiefly because there has been an official case. Some are just resistant and to them its a struggle between being able to bring food on the table and whether COVID-19 is real or a global political gimmick. There are social, economic and political ramifications caused by the virus. In some parts of the little town here, the provision of statistics to them has little effect as indicated by resistance to lockdown measures laid down or it is informed by their background of being informally employed and sheer economic hopelessness they allow in. To them seeing is believing, they haven't witness a case close to their proximity such that they cry against social distance discourse. Whether statistics updates will affect their behaviour change or not is another issue fo investigation.

I am sure that situation has brought to the point where statistical theory must be there to see the trend

It looks that trend is not following any pattren

Les statistiques permettent de faire des études de projection pour établir des scénarios sur la propagation du Covid19. Elles permettent également de réaliser des études d’impact, notamment l’impact du Covid19 sur l´économie d’un pays et l’économie mondiale, sur le réchauffement climatique, sur le système sanitaire, etc.

Malheureusement, le problème d’accès aux statistiques persistent au Maroc, le Haut Commissariat au Plan HCP qui est un institut gouvernemental des statistique au Maroc ne fournissent ses données; et les chercheurs évitent souvent de travailler sur le cas du Maroc (tout domaine confondu)

Dear Dr Peter Hackl : the SARS -COV-2 is a +ss RNA gone errant --its is less than a hundredth of a nano meter in size --even to this day, after six months its mechanism of attack is not well understood. What vital organ does the virus attack after replication, which age does it prefer ? The only fact scientists agree on is that as women have a more fortified immune system,, they are less vulnerable. No known physical or mathematical models can accurately depict its behavior or predict its ruthlessly erratic trajectory. Work is going on for sure but no definitive conclusion yet. In these times Medicine and Statistics hog the limelight for obvious reasons . The Virus is defying both with impunity and without compunction. Whether it transmits with more facility in the Air is another moot question. Vaccine may take some time in coming. Best regards--and stay safe!!

The statiscs can give us afuul picture how the impact of the lockdown and other direction of WHO to see the results

I don't think that statistics will be able to give all answers, rather to help us with some understanding of the current situation and help us to make decisions. We are still in a state when information is accumulating, and slowly researchers started to make sense from statistics. We still don't know a lot about COVID and doctors and scientists will be able to answer most pressing questions, not statisticians.

Very valid question.

We have built multiple ensemble models to analyze the impact of Pandemic (increase in infection rate, mortality rate, spread, peak) on macroeconomic parameters, which in-turn will impact stocks and commodity sales. Hence used simulations then to predict the impact of different businesses and their recovery pattern at national and market levels.

Used techniques like nowcasting and DSGE

refer the paper, should this give you some idea:

Article 3Ps- Path, Pace and Pattern of Recovery from COVID-19 for Di...

DR Peter! Biostatisticians and epidemiologists will play a role in solving the coronavirus crisis and helping to normalize our world. These professionals, who use standard statistical processes to address issues of human health, have specialized skills that, in fact, will be essential in the coming months as we fight this pandemic on behalf of our shared humanity.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/darwins-subterranean-world/202003/the-role-statistics-in-fighting-the-coronavirus

Regards--

Statistical models are essential as they help experts to predict the trajectory of the pandemic such as infectivity / mortality rate, efficacy of a certain treatment and diagnosis, and so on.

Here is a germane guest article for your perusal: ( harnessing stat for fighting covid-19)

http://sdg.iisd.org/commentary/guest-articles/harnessing-governance-statistics-in-the-fight-against-covid-19/

Data presentation. Besides, information is powerful. Statistics of infected, death, recovery, and active have been able to call the attention of everybody to different approaches to fight the pandemic.

Well, statistics plus epidemiology are everywhere in the pandemic of COVID-19.

Some of the uses are:

1. The help in quantitative description of the daily and accumulative burden of the pandemic

2. They are strong tools to monitor the effectiveness of preventive measures

3. They are the basic quantitative tools in Clinical Randomized Trials

4. They are involved in every research design and result analysis.

5. The help in describing the natural history of infection and disease

1- Staistical Modelling is most useful and prescient:

Article Methodological challenges of analysing COVID-19 data during ...

2- Health Statistics:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

3- Transmission Dynamics:

https://www.cebm.net/evidence-synthesis/transmission-dynamics-of-covid-19/

4- Statistical weekly updates:

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/coronavirus-weekly-update/

Statistics could be used to find where the highest number of cases are. With that information, we could then figure out where resources should go and any next steps.