Ship recycling is observed to be adversely related to the global commodity flow in the past. Shipowners tend to have their ship recycled and recover their capital , at least in partial, in times of low demand for commercial ships, leading to more ships get recycled in the recent future. This pattern may also be reinforced by the fact that a diversification of the international supply chain may emerge that may encourage more local products than products that are imported from other countries or regions.
In this situation, can ship recycling business be surged for COVID-19? if so, can the workers be more vulnerable?
End-of-life vessels are considered to be waste. They may contain hazardous waste, and must be dismantled under environmentally satisfactory conditions. The export of such vessels may be questionable, as it may be likely to result in dismantling in facilities which lack the necessary guarantees. This is why several regulations must be observed when such ships are transboundary for recycling. In my opinion, COVID-19 will not have an impact on the recycling of ships after containment measures.
Lockdown kept everything under locked. This time no way to continue their work.
Okay, I just finished a manuscript and submitted in RCR journal on this subject. I agree and the results are also consistent to the Hermann Gruenwald 's opinion that the response to COVID-19 by the recycling nations is not uniform, which depends on the severity and trend of the virus itself and in turn, depends on whether the real demand for scrap (construction works would be imagined as largely suspended) is low during this period and also if the labor force needed to recycle the vessels is affected due to fear of contamination. So this is the first time that the Welcome-In-My-Backyard is not really functioning in this part of the world that dictates, along with other factors, the EoL ship flow.
An estimation of about 20 billion dollars, representing large and very large vessels of 15 years or more, and medium vessels of 25 years old would be harmed if the impact remains at the long term, with associated environmental and social impacts.
Ben Boubakary Yes, this is true that the vessels are operated under less than standard social and environmental contexts. But there are other issues that is also important to bring into consideration for example economic gain, national dependency, employment, standard facilities market demand and profitability. More detail discussion is in the following papers of mine.
Article Circular Economy, Proximity, and Shipbreaking: A Material Fl...
Article Uncovering Discursive Framings of the Bangladesh Shipbreaking Industry
Muhammed Ashraful Alam No not completely. Our research found that Bangladesh is relaxing the lockdown measures and allowing workers to work although in limited fashion, India is strengthening the lockdown measures, through adopting regulations and returning vessels. That is why we have conducted scenario analysis , which have brought some interesting insights.
If you have any further interests, I can share the submitted work privately.
Hope that this would help develop some perspectives.
Best
Mizan
Dear S M Mizanur Rahman,
during this pandemic, I do not talk about numbers of patients or cases, I talk about fellow human beings, their affected families and their communities.
1) Yes, the workers can be more vulnerable. That is a matter to be addressed under occupational health & safety.
2) Then, it can also affect the availability of workers if more and more colleagues of mine contract COVID-19. That is a HR management issue, and also a deep consideration for the workers' unions. In my humble experience, the best skilled workers are most expensive to replace, even temporarily.
3) Under ISO 30005 Ship Recycling and the IMO Hong Kong Convention, a shift towards Chinese, Turkish or even European ship wreck facilities could take place. For example, the French Navy shipwreck their obsolete stock in France.
4) Ships become a higher ROI commodity if airfreight has less ans less capacity these days. As a business cycle effect, I guess more and more ships will be build, for example to transport containers, or to carry loads of compressed natural gas across the seven seas. I cannot foresee the future impact but I guess as more and more countries sign the IMO's Hong Cong Convention, it is significant.
Best regards, Carsten Dietsche
Single Point of Contact for EU Ship Recycling Regulation at my employer
Dear Carsten Dietsche,
Thank you for offering a detail analysis. Regarding the potential future ship recycling location, as you said, we do not know much but surely the international and national regulations have an impact on the destination decisions. Several national level and international level factors and challenges are to address if any progress has to occur.
I have conducted a review article (part one and part two) currently published in non peer reviewed preprint version, which indicates that the stakeholders' expectations - and therefore activism that is based on the expectations - are largely heterogeneous. The discordance lead to secrecy, continuity as well as hostility. That should be end with a fair understanding of challenging contexts and gradual and mutual progress by cooperation and collaboration.
You can get this paper version from the following links:
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202101.0329/v1
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/7/1/14
Best regards and have a great day!
Mizan
Thank you. It looks promising. It must be hard work to research it.