Wolfgang Dick on October 4, 2024 supplied the answer to the question, Do you know the citation for a 1965 article by Ole Sand that mentions knowledge doubling? (Many thanks.)
A scholar recounts their search for the source of the knowledge doubling idea in a 2021 video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kH-9tnCAsEc
The Ole Sand article is found in:
Comprehensive Musicianship
Volume 2 of CMP (Series)
Volume 2 of CMP, Contemporary Music Project for Creativity in Music Education
Publisher Contemporary Music Project, Music Educators National Conference, 1965
At page 79 in the book with the article:
“Never before have the dynamic forces of change spun with such incredible speed. In the nearly two thousand years since the birth of Christ, there has been first a very slow and then a rapidly accelerating growth in the accumulation of knowledge. If this accumulation is plotted on a time line, beginning with the birth of Christ, the first doubling of knowledge occurs in 1750,the second in 1900, the third in 1950, and the fourth only ten years later, in 1960!”
What is the original source for these claims?
The first section ("Early observations") in the Wikipedia article "Accelerating change" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change) lists some early publications. However, I think that Ole Sand refers to the discussions on the exponential growth of knowledge in the early 1960ies, e.g. by D.J. de Solla Price (Science Since Babylon, Yale Univ. Press 1961; Little Science, Big Science, Columbia Univ. Press 1965). The latter book may have been be the source for Ole Sand.
But see also recent discussion: "Scientific and technological knowledge grows linearly over time" (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/384057500).
Wolfgang R. Dick.
Many thanks again for your replies, very helpful.
The article on RG that you mention in your second reply today, (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/384057500), also on arxiv, Preprint Scientific and technological knowledge grows linearly over time
prompted my interest, led to me articles on knowledge doubling, and then my posted questions.
Thank you for identifying D.J. de Solla Price (Science Since Babylon, Yale Univ. Press 1961; Little Science, Big Science, Columbia Univ. Press 1965) as a possible source for Ole Sands remarks about knowledge doubling.
Regards
Bob Shour
Around the beginning of October 2024, I ran across articles about the knowledge doubling curve. I posted two questions about source articles for the knowledge doubling curve on RG. Wolfgang R. Dick kindly provided helpful replies and references.
The article I wrote about knowledge doubling is now posted on RG: Calculation of the period it takes for knowledge doubling relies on ideas I initially worked on from 2005 to 2009. The article link is:
Preprint Knowledge's 206.7 year doubling period
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