One of the issue which we do not clearly know about tuberculosis biology is the risk or rate of progression from latent infection to active TB diseases. However, ones life time risk of progression from latent TB to active TB is reported to be between 5 to 10% in the absence of other risk factors such as HIV in many documents. Sadly, these reports are not citing the original studies (if they ever have existed).
So can I find the relevant original references? Opinions on the risk of progression?
Debebe
University of Melbourne
The risk of progression from Latent TB (LTBI) to TB disease is 7% to 10% each year for those with both LTBI and untreated HIV infection. Those with LTBI who are not HIV-infected have a 10% risk over their lifetime. Thus the risk of progression to TB disease is 10 times greater for those who are HIV infected. This risk is reduced with antiretroviral therapy for HIV, but is still higher than that in HIV-negative persons with LTBI.
Can you add the reference please? Are the estimates based on TST or IGRA?
Dear Debebe
in childhood TB, there is a review of historic data which clearly quotes original references. It is not about latent TB only but about the general risk of progression to disease after infection. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&dopt=Citation&list_uids=15141729
Maybe you'll find this helpful.
Dear Norbert Heinrich and Shankhadeep Chakraborty
Thank you for your responses.
Your responses are quite helpful
cheers!
Dear Lawurence
Thanks for that. Currently experts opinions on higher progression risk among children are coming out. In that view Is the progression risk of 7 to 10% for children, adults or both combined?.
thanks!
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