Spillway is designed for the maximum flood that the structure can safely pass ‘design flood’ and is
selected after consideration of economic and hydrologic factors.
Design flood may be arrived at by considering the cost of constructing the structure to provide flood control and the flood control benefits arising directly by prevention of damage to structures downstream, disruption of communication, loss of life and property, damage to crops, and underutilization of land and indirectly, the money saved under insurance and workmen’s compensation laws, higher yields from intensive cultivation of protected lands and elimination of losses arising from interruption of business, reduction in diseases resulting from inundation of flood waters. The direct benefits are called tangible benefits and the indirect benefits are
called intangible benefits. The design flood is usually selected after making a cost-benefit analysis
and exercising engineering judgment.
Maximum Probable Flood (MPF) includes extremely rare and catastrophic floods and is usually confined to the spillway design of very high dams.
Refer to the book Hydrology by H.M.Raghunath
You can also refer to many hydraulic structures books.
The reply given above holds; the approach velocity will have an impact beside all mentioned above. It continues to grow as the first drop start to spill.