Dear Bibi,

For the suitable methods used, please see the following publications:

1-EVALUATION AND FORECAST OF HUMAN IMPACTS BASED ON LAND USE CHANGES USING MULTI-TEMPORAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GIS:

A CASE STUDY ON ZANJAN, IRAN (1984-2009)

Mohsen Ahadnejad & Ali Reza Rabet

ABSTRACT:

Land use and land cover change due to human activities in a time sequence .Detection of such changes may help decision makers and planners to understand the factors in land use and land cover changes in order to take effective and useful measures .Remote sensing and GIS techniques may be used as efficient tools to detect and assess land use changes. In recent years, a considerable land use changes have occurred in the greater Zanjan area .In order to understand the type and rate of changes in this area, Landsat TM images captured in 1984 and 2009 have been selected for comparison. First, geometric correction and contrast stretch are applied .In order to detect and evaluate land use changes, image differencing, principal component analyses and Fuzzy ARTMAP classification method are applied .Finally, the results of land cover classification for three different times are compared to reveal land use changes .Then, combined Cellular Automata with Markov Chain analysis is employed to forecast of human impacts on land use change until 2020 in Zanjan area The results of the present study disclose that about 36 percents of the total area changed their land use, e.g., changing agricultural land, orchard and bare land to settlements, construction of industrial areas and highways .The crop pattern also changes, such as orchard land to agricultural land and vice versa .The mentioned changes have occurred within last 25 years in Zanjan city and its surrounding area.

http://www.isprs.org/proceedings/XXXVIII/part2/Papers/160_Paper.pdf

2-The Assessment and Predicting of Land Use Changes to Urban Area Using Multi-Temporal Satellite Imagery and GIS: A Case Study on Zanjan, IRAN (1984-2011)

Mohsen Ahadnejad Reveshty 

Abstract

Due to inappropriate planning and management, accelerated urban growth and tremendous loss in land, especially cropland, have become a great challenge for sustainable urban development [1]. Detection of such changes may help decision makers and planners to understand the factors in land use and land cover changes in order to take effective and useful measures. Remote sensing and GIS techniques may be used as efficient tools to detect and assess land use changes.In recent years, a considerable land use changes have occurred in the greater Zanjan area. In order to understand the type and rate of changes in this area, Landsat TM images captured in 1984 and 2011 have been selected for comparison.First, geometric correction and contrast stretch are applied. In order to detect and evaluate land use changes, image differencing, principal component analyses and Fuzzy ARTMAP classification method are applied. Finally, the results of land cover classification for three different times are compared to reveal land use changes.Then, combined Cellular Automata with Markov Chain analysis is employed to forecast of human impacts on land use change until 2020 in Zanjan area. The results of the present study disclose that about 44 percents of the total area changed their land use, e.g., changing agricultural land, orchard and bare land to settlements, construction of industrial areas and highways. The crop pattern also changes, such as orchard land to agricultural land and vice versa. The mentioned changes have occurred within last 27 years in Zanjan city and its surrounding area.

https://encrypted.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjJmaSwu8XNAhWHWRQKHS2DBZUQIAgnMAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwebcache.googleusercontent.com%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Dcache%3AtzuC1hFKNkwJ%3Afile.scirp.org%2Fpdf%2FJGIS20110400003_45440426.pdf%2B%26cd%3D2%26hl%3Den%26ct%3Dclnk%26gl%3Dus&usg=AFQjCNEMSK0fkDxNtR7str85sWEAYh2i8Q&sig2=I5St83FBzumQ4rt2EdvLog

3- Monitoring urban growth and land use change detection with GIS and remote sensing techniques in Daqahlia governorate Egypt

Ibrahim Rizk Hegazy & Mosbeh Rashed Kaloop

Abstract

Urban growth is a worldwide phenomenon but the rate of urbanization is very fast in developing country like Egypt. It is mainly driven by unorganized expansion, increased immigration, rapidly increasing population. In this context, land use and land cover change are considered one of the central components in current strategies for managing natural resources and monitoring environmental changes. In Egypt, urban growth has brought serious losses of agricultural land and water bodies. Urban growth is responsible for a variety of urban environmental issues like decreased air quality, increased runoff and subsequent flooding, increased local temperature, deterioration of water quality, etc. Egypt possessed a number of fast growing cities. Mansoura and Talkha cities in Daqahlia governorate are expanding rapidly with varying growth rates and patterns. In this context, geospatial technologies and remote sensing methodology provide essential tools which can be applied in the analysis of land use change detection. This paper is an attempt to assess the land use change detection by using GIS in Mansoura and Talkha from 1985 to 2010. Change detection analysis shows that built-up area has been increased from 28 to 255 km2 by more than 30% and agricultural land reduced by 33%. Future prediction is done by using the Markov chain analysis. Information on urban growth, land use and land cover change study is very useful to local government and urban planners for the betterment of future plans of sustainable development of the city.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212609015000060

4-Springerplus. 2014; 3: 61.

Published online 2014 Jan 30. doi: 10.1186/2193-1801-3-61

PMCID: PMC3925489

Using satellite data to monitor land-use land-cover change in North-eastern Latvia

Simon Foteck Fonjicorresponding author and Gregory N Taff

Abstract

Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC), especially those caused by human activities, is one of the most important components of global environmental change (Jessen 3rd edition: 1-526 2005). In this study the effects of geographic and demographic factors on LULCC are analyzed in northeastern Latvia using official estimates from census and vital statistics data, and using remotely sensed satellite imagery (Landsat Thematic Mapper) acquired from 1992 and 2007. The remote sensing images, elevation data, in-situ ground truth and ground control data (using GPS), census and vital statistics data were processed, integrated, and analyzed in a geographic information system (GIS). Changes in six categories of land-use and land-cover (wetland, water, agriculture, forest, bare field and urban/suburban) were studied to determine their relationship to demographic and geographic factors between 1992 and 2007. Supervised classifications were performed on the Landsat images. Analysis of land cover change based on “change-to” categories between the 1992 and 2007 images revealed that changes to forest were the most common type of change (17.1% of pixels), followed by changes to agriculture (8.6%) and the fewest were changes to urban/suburban (0.8%). Integration of population data and land-cover change data revealed key findings: areas near to roads underwent more LULCC and areas far away from Riga underwent less LULCC. Range in elevation was positively correlated with all LULCC categories. Population density was found to be associated with most LULCC categories but the direction of effect was scale dependent. This paper shows how socio-demographic data can be integrated with satellite image data and cartographic data to analyze drivers of LULCC at multiple spatial scales.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3925489/

Hoping this will be helpful,

Rafik

I have great doubts that you can use it for forecasting!

You may be able to back follow changes!

here is my publication of urban change detection of lahore using Landsat thematic images. Please find this and make citation by viewing my techniques i used.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303842478_Urban_change_detection_of_Lahore_Pakistan_using_the_Thematic_Mapper_Images_of_Landsat_since_1992-2010?ev=prf_pub

Conference Paper Urban change detection of Lahore (Pakistan) using the Themat...