Have a look at the CLE modelling framework, developed by Peter Verburg and his group:http://www.ivm.vu.nl/en/Organisation/departments/spatial-analysis-decision-support/Clue/
Check also SITE, developed by the group around my colleague Joerg Priess
The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a state-and-transition simulation modeling platform to analyze potential future land use and land cover (LULC) change based on historic, empirical LULC data collected in the Land Cover Trends project (http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov/).
Here is a recent paper describing the modeling framework: doi:10.3390/land3020362
Future changes are being modeled following the IPCC"s SRES scenarios.
Spatially-explicit LULC data modeled out to 2050 at 250 meter resolution are already available for the conterminous United States: http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/land_carbon/LULC.asp
For historic reconstructions you might want to use a similar approach to the HILDA model: http://www.wageningenur.nl/en/Expertise-Services/Chair-groups/Environmental-Sciences/Laboratory-of-Geoinformation-Science-and-Remote-Sensing/Models/Hilda.htm
Publications on the concept can be found under my account.
both Clue and Hilda are OK, but you must be produce time series classified raster land use data (spatial) which used in both models and related time series non-spatial data. before but you must be carefully read their support documents then choose any of them regard to your need.
Most of the LULCC models available in literature are case specific. Hence, not of much use in other areas, as no model can be taken as standard model. However, since the spatial extend of your area of interest is small, better to use Land change modeler as given in IDRISI. But before using the module, you must create LULC map for two time period having common LULC classification, using high resolution satellite data of the same month or season.
If you are used to statistical analysis and GIS you can develop your own model for land use dynamics in your study area.