In connection with the warming of the Earth's climate, progressive global warming, some areas located in the sub-tropical zone in the future will not be fit for existence, and the migration processes of the population will be intensified.
Do you agree with my opinion?
Please reply
Best wishes
One effect of global warming is the melting of ice sheets, which will raise sea level. This will lead to migration away from low lying coastal areas which will be flooded. Bangladesh and Florida are major concerns.
Natural rates of migration won't be able to keep up. That is why Assisted migration needs to be accepted and appplied. That is at the species level and with-in species genetic variation. Genetic variation is often not understood. The seedlot selectioon toolis so useful ( I can't paste the URL so just do a google searc.h
Yes, population migrations are expected to increase in response to climatic changes at local and global levels. This includes humans as well, for instance:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/25754466/
One effect of global warming is the melting of ice sheets, which will raise sea level. This will lead to migration away from low lying coastal areas which will be flooded. Bangladesh and Florida are major concerns.
Yes, I agree that higher migration is a threat. But we cannot apply econometric approach here because such process has been never observed before. Instead, we should model theoretically both natural changes and population reaction to them.
Article Global Warming Mitigation Through Carbon Sequestrations in t...
Global warming is meant to have increasingly adverse consequences for humanity and ecosystems. The climate change will lead to massive population shifts in the international system, notably mass migration from poor to rich countries and will force millions of people to migrate in the decades altering everyone's life.
I am not sure if migration will be from poor to rich countries. There will be massive shifts in values. If we consider the effect of growing ocean level due to melting ice (potential of this disaster is 67 meters!), many currently rich countries (like the Netherlands) and coastal cities would lose these values. Some presently poor regions with positive climate effect from global warming can gain in value.
Right now people migrate to find work or avoid war zones. In the future the migration might be the other way, going away from rich areas which are being flooded (New York) or extensively burned by forest fires (California). There is certainly going to be movement of people due to extreme weather events.
Yuri Yegorov
It is not strictly true that "such process has been never observed before. " The Great Irish Famine lead to the mass emigration of a million people as the result of a natural disaster.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)
Moreover, the Syrian war has been blamed on climate change. It led to vast migration including one million to Germany.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War#Drought
and references therein.
Dear Alastair, as for Irish famine, its drive was probably also social rather than purely natural. Migration from Syria is a result of war. In both cases (and there are more) the processes of migration occur on a small subset of global land (territories of both are well below 1%). In the case of severe climate change deterioration can occur simultaneously on maybe 10-30% of global land. The scale of migration that it may cause was previously unknown. At least to humans of advanced civilizations. During the Ice Age 10 000 years ago the fraction of migrants could be similar, but since the global population that time probably did not exceed 10 million, scale is much smaller. I am talking about potentially disastrous scenario like ocean rise by 5-10 meters. This is not predicted to happen in the 21st century under any policy, but can happen later.
Mala, hottness by itself (+2 C of average temperature growth) will not cause migration. People live now with 40-50 C in summer in MENA (Mid East - North Africa) countries. For people in Canada or Siberia warming can be even beneficial. The problem is in agriculture. Good combination of temperatures and rainfall is positive for crops, but if it becomes warmer, rainfall can drop, and this is the real problem. There is also higher frequency of disasters due to higher climate volatility caused by global warming.
people will have to migrate from their house to another suitable place. migration will have a devastating effect on people health, economy and so on.
We can not ignore the effect of global warming on the biological aspects of pathogens that affect humans, as well as the vectors of them. The migration of people derived from global warming will undoubtedly facilitate the migration of these pathogens, directly influencing public health and the economy (costs in prevention, control and treatment) and will have a negative impact on the world population.
Dear Diego José Garcia-Corredor,
Yes, in the future, the progressing global warming process may increase the scale of international migration of people. Climate change causes the enlargement of areas subject to permanent drought, forest fires appearing more and more often, pest infestations appearing on farmlands, migration of insects carrying pathogenic microorganisms, etc. These processes will also contribute to the increasing scale of international human migration.
Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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