Armenia has agreed to grant the United States exclusive management rights over this corridor for a period of 99 years. Donald Trump referred to this route as the "Trump Route for Global Peace and Prosperity." Currently designated as the "Transboundary Zangezur Corridor," this pathway connects Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, traversing Armenian territory. However, unlike conventional transit routes, this passage will not remain under Armenia’s full sovereignty; instead, it will be administered under international or regional supervision.
Some of these consequences and concerns of Iran are mentioned below:
Geopolitical Implications for Iran:
Loss of Strategic Leverage in Regional Transit Iran currently serves as a critical land bridge connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan via its territory. The Zangezur Corridor could marginalize Iran’s role in regional trade and transportation, reducing its economic and political influence.Strengthening of NATO-Turkey-Azerbaijan Axis The corridor may facilitate deeper military and logistical cooperation between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and NATO (particularly the U.S.), altering regional power dynamics. Increased Western presence near Iran’s northwestern borders could be perceived as a security threat.Shifts in Regional Alliances Armenia’s growing reliance on the West (via U.S. involvement in the corridor) may weaken its traditional ties with Iran. Azerbaijan’s enhanced connectivity with Turkey could further consolidate the Turkic bloc, potentially isolating Iran in regional forums.Economic Bypass and Sanctions Evasion Risks Alternative trade routes through Zangezur could diminish Iran’s role in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). The U.S. and allies may use the corridor to enforce secondary sanctions by rerouting commerce away from Iran.Security Implications for Iran:
Increased Military Tensions Near Borders A NATO-monitored corridor could lead to heightened surveillance and intelligence activities near Iran’s northwestern frontier. Potential militarization of the corridor might provoke Iranian countermeasures to secure its borders.Separatist Pressures in Iranian Azerbaijan Enhanced connectivity between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan could embolden irredentist sentiments among Iran’s Azeri minority. Baku’s pan-Turkic rhetoric may fuel tensions in Iran’s East and West Azerbaijan provinces.Disruption of Iran-Armenia Trade & Energy Links Armenia has been a key partner for Iran in circumventing Western sanctions (e.g., gas-for-electricity swaps). If Yerevan pivots toward the West, Iran could lose a vital economic and security buffer.Potential for U.S.-Israel Intelligence Penetration A U.S.-managed corridor could serve as a foothold for intelligence operations targeting Iran. Israel’s deepening ties with Azerbaijan (e.g., drone sales, espionage activities) may gain a new logistical avenue.The Zangezur Corridor has the potential to redefine the South Caucasus’ geopolitical landscape, with Iran facing both strategic setbacks (economic isolation, reduced influence) and security risks (military encirclement, separatist pressures). Tehran may respond by:
- Strengthening ties with Russia and China to counterbalance Western influence.
- Increasing security measures along its northwestern borders.
- Exploring alternative transit routes (e.g., via Iraq or Central Asia) to maintain connectivity.
