Using data source from January 23 to March 29, I have tried to create a monthly forecast model of COVID-19 new cases and deaths with an assumption of seasonal patterns every 7 day. Still the number of new cases identified globally is skyrocketing. Number of deaths will be two fold higher in the next one month, again globally. Model is estimated to be strong but slightly varying by countries depending on the data reporting. I have pasted a figure - global, but the pattern in mainland china, Italy, US, UK and Spain, reveals the truth. New cases in Italy subsides but death is still going to continue to be high (data not shown). I hope we all need to take serious measures in the preventive actions such as social distancing. Let’s protect our doctors, nurses, leaders by adhering to guidance we hear from our experts. For Ethiopia, the model is not good and may be misleading.
In Saudi Arabia the lock down has resulted in depletion of medications. There is no warfarin available. Antimicrobials are in very short supply. Shipping charges have increased significantly. The situation is likely to be similar in other countries. We must urgently determine which medications are effective for this condition to avoid wastage.
This will result in excess deaths beyond those directly due to Covid-19
All the projections and models have failed badly (1). Thanks God they overestimated the spread and deaths.
There are three types of lies "Lies, damn lies, and statistics"
See the dooms-day projections given by US President Trump (2) and German Chancellor Merkel (3). However, Germany handled the COVID-19 pandemic better than US (4)
1. Don’t Believe the COVID-19 Models -
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/
2. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/trump-deaths-coronavirus/index.html
3. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856
The problem is these models don't take into account such things as virus transmission under things like social distancing. Models that do work fairly well. I suggest you look at some papers on the topic presented at a recent symposium sponsered by St. Jude Childrens Hosp.. I was quite impressed. Best, David Booth Link:
We have posted materials from the virtual symposium on our web page. For each speaker, you can access the abstract, slides, and video: https://www.stjude.org/education-training/advanced-training/seminars-symposia/precision-medicine-symposium.html
Any specific reason for assumption of seasonal pattern every seven days, sir?