What are the long-term economic effects of one country imposing high protective tariffs on other countries, with particular emphasis on retaliatory measures, changes in the structure of international trade and the risk of recession?

Dear Researchers, Scientists, Friends,

This question deals with the complex issue of the effects of economic protectionism on a global scale. Barrier tariffs, although intended to protect the interests of the national economy - such as domestic production, the labour market or the trade balance - can have a number of undesirable consequences. When other countries respond with similar measures, a spiral of retaliatory measures ensues, leading to global trade tensions, a decline in international trade, higher prices and production costs, and, in the long term, a slowdown in economic growth or even recession. The question, therefore, is whether the short-term benefits of a customs policy can be outweighed by the long-term negative effects on a macroeconomic and geopolitical scale. For the purposes of this discussion, I have formulated the following research thesis, according to which the introduction of high protective tariffs by one country triggers retaliatory measures by trading partners, leads to a decline in international trade, an increase in production costs and inflation, which in the long term results in a weakening of the national currency, a loss of competitiveness, a deterioration of the economic situation and an increased risk of recession. This hypothesis is based on the analysis of logical connections between protectionist measures and global market mechanisms. Economic history shows that the unilateral imposition of high tariffs, although it may have short-term effects – such as an improvement in the trade balance or a temporary increase in employment in certain sectors – can harm the economy of the initiating country in the long term. Increases in the prices of imported raw materials and components, deteriorating trade relations, an outflow of foreign investment and increased currency volatility are just some of the negative effects that can occur. As a result, instead of achieving the intended economic development and improvement in prosperity, the country can fall into an inflationary-recessionary spiral. Examining this hypothesis is of great importance for economic policy, as it allows for a better understanding of the consequences of moving away from free trade in favour of protectionism and the policies that countries should pursue in a globalised world.

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I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz