Some major implications of the ongoing war in Ukraine for European security and global governance are:
Erosion of European Borders: The conflict has eroded the principle of respecting international borders, particularly due to Russia's annexation of Crimea and its involvement in Eastern Ukraine, challenging the European security framework.
NATO's Credibility and Role: NATO's role in ensuring European security has been reinvigorated as member states in Eastern Europe seek reassurance and the alliance strengthens its deterrence measures.
Energy Security Concerns: The war in Ukraine has raised concerns about the stability of energy supplies to Europe, leading to a greater emphasis on diversifying energy sources and supply routes.
Refugee Crisis: The conflict has contributed to a refugee crisis as Ukrainians seek asylum in neighboring European countries, adding pressure to social and political stability in these nations.
Sanctions Against Russia: Western sanctions against Russia, due to its actions in Ukraine, have repercussions on international trade and economic governance, highlighting the role of economic instruments in global governance.
UN Security Council Paralysis: The inability of the UN Security Council to effectively address the Ukraine crisis underlines the challenges of global governance in the face of great power politics.
Norms and International Law: The war has tested international norms, such as the prohibition of annexation, and the sanctity of borders, thus challenging the foundations of global governance.
Diplomatic Stalemate: The protracted nature of the conflict underscores the difficulties of achieving diplomatic solutions in a multipolar world where great powers have conflicting interests.
Elevated Risk of Proxy Conflicts: The Ukraine conflict has led to heightened concerns about proxy wars in Europe, with outside powers supporting different sides, thus increasing the complexity of European security.
EU's Role in Conflict Resolution: The EU has played a role in mediating the conflict, highlighting the evolving nature of global governance as regional organizations increasingly become involved in addressing global security challenges.
It will have future impacts on European energy security and bilateral security arrangements with the Russian Federation and the United States of America separately, and this will reflect on the expansion of NATO and its guarantee of European security.
While the implications of the war in Ukraine for European security and global governance are still unfolding it has become clear that the war has had a profound impact on the international landscape.
The war has shown that Europe is no longer immune to major military conflict. It has also shown that the post-World War II order of global governance is under strain.
The future of European security and global governance will depend on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. If Russia is successful in achieving its objectives in Ukraine, it will embolden other authoritarian regimes and make the world a more dangerous place. However, if Ukraine is able to defend itself and defeat Russia, it will send a strong message that aggression will not be tolerated.
The war in Ukraine has also highlighted the need for Europe to strengthen its security and energy independence. It has also shown that the West needs to cooperate more closely to counter the threat posed by Russia and other authoritarian regimes.
Previous Statement: "To War or not To War, That's the Question to Ask NATO"; i.e. “To conquer without peril; to triumph without glory”, an old French Adage says: (Own Translation). In this Vein, the paper by Klinke, I. 2023, "Of tanks and tankies: What's ‘left’ for geography after the invasion of Ukraine. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 48(4), 811-815" asks among other essential questions: "Why is the plight of the Ukrainians framed in such different ways to that of the Palestinians and why is it more controversial to understand the Israeli occupation as colonial?" and affirms that "The answer surely has to do with a larger and often unspoken geopolitics that whataboutery can help to uncover". The author concludes "...the ethics of Western military support for Kyiv remains tied up with events on the battlefield, the degree of further escalation, and, ultimately, the outcome of the war. It is with an eye on this strategic and moral terrain that we should reflect on the lessons of this war for the geography of war itself. There are still, it should be said, good reasons to be a NATO sceptic. But such scepticism has to be delivered with the necessary nuance, even ambivalence, reflecting the fact that the current war is both a proxy war and a war of liberation." Read on:
In The Same Vein. Cynicism and the height of hypocrisy is that people from where they are, risking absolutely nothing for themselves or their offspring and not suffering the pangs of war decide or think of what is good or bad for others. Why do the countries that want to fight against the Russian empire not go to war and strive to invent all kinds of subterfuge, so that they could not be qualified as co-belligerents? Do they want to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian? And waiting for the intervention of the West, if only to promote to Ukraine the principle of its membership in NATO, the ordeal of the Ukrainians, and the martyrdom of Ukraine are continuing. In this regard, "Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Tuesday that the head of NATO shows that the alliance wants to wage war when it opposes the "freezing" of the conflict in Ukraine. "If NATO, through the mouth of (Secretary-General Jens) Stoltenberg, once again declares that they are against freezing, as they put it, of the conflict in Ukraine, so it means they want to wage war. Well, let them wage war!" he said at a news conference in Minsk".
Read the paper from Anadolu Agency "Lavrov says those ‘against freezing’ Ukraine conflict wants ‘to wage war’, by Elena Teslova 20.06.2023, on:
Merry Christmas to All Colleagues and Hope for Better Tomorrows for Humanity. Thoughts and compassion for the innocent victims of armed conflicts in Ukraine Palestine and everywhere else.
Open letter from the Palestinian Patriarch "from https://groupegaullistesceaux.fr/ (Own Translation from French)": Michel Sabbah, the former Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, addressed the global public from the birthplace of Christ in Beit Lahm, through the "Palestine 100 Initiative" platform, for this year's Christmas. In a message dedicated to war-fallen Gaza, the Patriarch said, "Christmas this year, in Beit Lahm and all over the world, is a prayer to God Almighty, to stop the war in Gaza and all of Palestine. During these days, many direct their eyes and hearts to Beit Lahm, but only an hour away, they see the war in Gaza, where humans are buried beneath the rubble of their own homes, they see children beneath the rubble, they see humanity beneath the rubble."
He regarded the war as a genocide of Palestinians, adding that Palestinians and Christians witnessing the genocide during these specific times, "must recognize that Christmas this year should not be restricted to Beit Lahm solely but must traverse to every oppressed human, particularly on the Holy Land, and it makes its way to Gaza and all of Palestine, where death reigns supreme". The patriarch called for an end to the aggressive genocide in Gaza, calling on Christians around the world to support and defend the Palestinian cause. “Gaza deserves liberation, independence and peace,” the patriarch said, adding that the root causes of war and occupation must be investigated, as Gaza and Palestine have a long history of war.
Previous Statement: "To War or not To War, That's the Question to Ask NATO"; Any other talk is just cynicism: a NATO Hybrid War, down to the last Ukrainian. i.e. “To conquer without peril; to triumph without glory”, Says An Old French Adage. (Own Translation). The Kyiv Independent (15 Hours Ago), UK defense minister warns of 'severe consequences' if Putin wins war in Ukraine. "U.K. Defense Minister Grant Shapps has told the Sunday Times in a Dec. 24 interview that the West "cannot afford" to lose the war in Ukraine and that there would be "severe consequences" if Russian dictator Vladimir Putin wins. "If we allow Putin to win this war by dragging it out, and he somehow wins it by exhausting everyone else, then we will suffer the consequences. And the consequences would be incredibly severe for Europe, for Britain, for the world," Shapps said, as quoted by the media. "And the reason I say that is because we know what happens when dictators march across Europe. We know what happens when others look at a weakness or what they perceive to be a weakness, and that could have implications in the Indo-Pacific or elsewhere," he said. "So we literally can not afford not to win this war..."
Released Two Weeks Ago. Trillo-Figueroa, S. C. (2023). Why China and the EU could emerge as stronger partners in 2024. https://hal.science/hal-04337689/document
The China-EU Dec. 2023 summit represents a pivotal juncture where both parties shift toward mutual understanding, focusing on realpolitik over symbolic disputes.
As I previously mentioned, the core issue is to ask NATO: To War or Not To War, That's The Question! And for a good reason: New York Times, Dec. 28, 2023, Russia Retakes Some Land Hard Won by Ukraine During Counteroffensive. Russia’s recent progress around the southern village of Robotyne is a sobering development for Ukraine amid dwindling Western military aid. By Constant Méheut, Reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine. "Russia has recaptured land hard won by Ukrainian troops at the peak of their summer counteroffensive in the south, making progress around the southern village of Robotyne. The situation has reinforced the war’s latest reality: With their counteroffensive stalled, Ukrainian troops are now on the back foot in many places. Besides Robotyne in the south, they are also struggling in the east, having all but retreated from the town of Marinka, officials said this week.
Deepening their challenges, Kyiv is increasingly worried that its military will not have the resources to keep up the fight. Washington announced on Wednesday that it was releasing the last remaining Congress-approved package of military aid available to Kyiv..."
When we stop talking with the other. "Currently, it seems as if it is increasingly difficult for people to talk with each other. Not necessarily with your relatives or other people that you tend to agree with. No, what is referred to is the conversation with other people, with whom you may have a touch of tension, because you may not fully agree with these people... If we take it to a broader scale, our news are filled with pictures from Gaza where it is difficult to see that the two parties are interested in any form of negotiation, leaving two populations victimised. Or the now more or less forgotten war in Ukraine, that for the last year has been frozen in a warfare tactic that we thought was buried with the millions of young men, whose lives were sacrified in northern France during the first world war more than one hundred years ago. History seems to repeat itself because we have no intentions in talking with the other... Talking with each other is important. Being interested in each other is important. But it requires that we put ourselves in play, and thereby at risk. Involving with the other gives you the chance to learn from the other, but it also implies that we may have to revise our perception of our reality, and therefore act differently than what we used to do. This indicates that if our intent is to engage with the other with the purpose of understanding the other, then it requires more than just to begin talking. We have to talk with each other, not just talk to each other..."
Excerpts from:
Jakobsen, M., Korhonen, T., & Laine, T. (2023). To talk with the other. Journal of Pragmatic Constructivism, 13(1). (Released 3 days ago)
Comment: Situations today are the result of past decisions. Future situations of war or peace will be the result of today's decisions. "Those who don't remember history are condemned to repeat it" Said, George Orwell".
In these holiday days, I would like to mention this article which inspires the desire to celebrate life (or to simply live) despite everything: Straits Times, Dec. 25, 2023, World celebrates Christmas in shadow of wars in Gaza, Ukraine. "... People donated Santa caps on beaches, ski slopes and streets around the globe on Dec 25 to celebrate Christmas, with Israel's war on Hamas and Russia's invasion of Ukraine casting a shadow over the holiday...". Happy Holidays to all
I Previously wrote: To War or Not To War, That's The Question to Ask NATO! Because, in front of the Russian war machine, infernal and implacable, it is nonsense and cynically hypocritical to say to Ukrainians: I'm with you and helping you to defend Ukraine to the end, to the last Ukrainian, if necessary. The New American, December 29, 2023, by Angeline Tan, U.S. Launches Final Ukraine Aid Package. "On December 27, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that his country will offer Ukraine an additional $250 million in military aid... Lawmakers have already left Washington for the Christmas holidays, after having been unsuccessful in authorizing $60 billion in Ukraine aid requested by President Joe Biden in October... Furthermore, the secretary of Ukraine’s parliamentary national security committee, Roman Kostenko, admitted that the Ukrainian military needs 500,000 new conscripts to cover casualties and man newly established units for the next 12 months... Kostenko bemoaned that his compatriots “thought that we would win soon,” which inculcated the belief in Ukrainians that “they could live quietly [and] not prepare for mobilization.” “And now the words about an additional 450,000-500,000 mobilized have become a cold shower for everyone,” the lawmaker said. He elaborated that the figure roughly mirrors the armed forces’ needs in terms of replenishing “sanitary losses during the year” as well as creating new units. The military, according to Kostenko, must plan years ahead as the conflict “can … drag on for a long time.”..."
Le Monde, Dec. 31, 2023, by Jean-Pierre Filiu (Professeur des universités à Sciences Po), Le destin de l’Europe en 2024 se jouera à Gaza (The destiny of Europe in 2024 will be decided in Gaza, Own Translation). Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin, who are banking on the return of Donald Trump to the White House, will do everything to prolong the war in Gaza, which would be disastrous for the European Union, both in the Middle East and in Ukraine. "The historian knows from experience how opinions gradually adapt to conflicts that develop over time. It is no less disturbing to note that the war in Gaza has become trivialized even more quickly than that in Ukraine The losses in Ukraine are, however, much more military than civilian, while the milestone of one percent of the population killed is about to be crossed in Gaza. Such a dizzying figure would represent 650,000 on the scale of France dead, including 250,000 children, as well as millions of wounded, mutilated, traumatized and orphans..."
DW, (Jan. 1, 2024), by Juri Rescheto, Russia in 2024: Same president, same war. Surprises are in short supply for Russians. President Vladimir Putin will likely secure a fifth term in office. The economy remains stable despite sanctions. And few ordinary Russian are troubled by the war in Ukraine. Read on:
DW, (Jan. 1, 2024), by Juri Rescheto, Russia in 2024: Same president, same war. Surprises are in short supply for Russians. President Vladimir Putin will likely secure a fifth term in office. The economy remains stable despite sanctions. And few ordinary Russian are troubled by the war in Ukraine. Read on: